Tropical Season 2017

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I won't get into the technicalities of the Sandy classification debate, but no doubt, it was a big time event for much of the NYC/upper MA region. Can't remember how well CT dealt with it, but Irene was a big deal along the CT coast, particularly in East Haven. That said, a major up the coast and over SNE would be a catastrophe IMO, not only because of the surge but the wind potential further inland if that storm is moving rapidly. There have been a number of events to weed out weak/dead trees, but a bona fide major hurricane would still do major damage IMO. 

Acknowledging how devastating Sandy was for some folks, while also appreciating that fact that a strong hurricane traversing bodily over LI and NE would dwarf said impacts are not mutually exclusive, contrary to what some would lead you to believe.

[40/70 Benchmark]

We are long overdue for a major hurricane strike in New England.

When it occurs, the way in which we evaluate damage will be flipped upside down.

Fact, not opinion.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We are long overdue for a major hurricane strike in New England.

When it occurs, the way in which we evaluate damage will be flipped upside down.

Fact, not opinion.

well. ...if we want to take a lesser analytical approach then ... f, we're overdue for just anything at this point - jesus.

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

I know that Sandy didn't affect New England in the same way that it did the NYC and upper Mid-Atlantic however as far as filling an anomaly for serious East coast tropical threats, I'm fairly certain we're good for awhile. We also had a direct impact from Irene in 2011.

I barely had any impact from Irene

Sandy was another story

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I won't get into the technicalities of the Sandy classification debate, but no doubt, it was a big time event for much of the NYC/upper MA region. Can't remember how well CT dealt with it, but Irene was a big deal along the CT coast, particularly in East Haven. That said, a major up the coast and over SNE would be a catastrophe IMO, not only because of the surge but the wind potential further inland if that storm is moving rapidly. There have been a number of events to weed out weak/dead trees, but a bona fide major hurricane would still do major damage IMO. 

I had no power for 5 days during Sandy

My area turned into the Atlantic Ocean.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That's incredible. Even though I wasn't in the path I knew a lot of people that were. One friend almost lost their parents. A friend lost a classmate. Sobering stuff.

Here are some pictures from my area during the storm. I lost power at about 8pm on Monday night and didn't get it back until Friday night. I will never forget the water rushing down every block in my area. I live in the Sheepshead Bay part of Brooklyn . The area has water around it from the bay and the ocean.

 

[Tom12309]

I saw places in Vermont where Irene took thousands of yards of earth and put it somewhere else nobody knows where.  I took my bike down a road in upstate NY where I realized I was going over brand new bridges down through a steep valley that weren't there a couple of years ago.  Thank you, Irene.  I rode a loop of the Adirondack 540 bike race a month after Irene and going through Upper Jay I was looking up at debris in the trees.  One that struck me was a telephone about fifteen or twenty feet up in a tree along the Au Sable.   The library in Jay was soaked out of existence.  

 

I am not ashamed to say that I cried when I heard they completed the last road repair so everybody could get through to somewhere else in Vermont and the crew threw their hats in the air.  

 

I'm OK if we don't have another disaster so we can get our entertainment from it. 

[NJwx85]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

I barely had any impact from Irene

Sandy was another story

I had no power for 5 days during Sandy

My area turned into the Atlantic Ocean.

With Irene I had 13" of rain and catastrophic river flooding. The crest was 2 1/2 feet above the old record from 1984.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

well. ...if we want to take a lesser analytical approach then ... f, we're overdue for just anything at this point - jesus.

I know.....we haven't had a decent tropical event in years...

[HoarfrostHubb]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know.....we haven't had a decent tropical event in years...

Lots of teases, but nothing siggy 

[Hoth]

I have yet to see true hurricane conditions. Was too young to remember Gloria and was away in northern VT during Bob. Lots of teases with recurves and weak TS. Irene entrained too much dry air and came ashore in NC and consequently was nowhere near what had been projected in the modeling (flooding was obviously still devastating). Sandy was certainly highly exotic and impressive in any number of respects, surge especially, but did not have the "feel" of a hurricane outside of the immediate coast. Probably the closest I've come to being totally awed with the power of these things was witnessing Bill's wave action. That was totally insane. Anyway, one of these days we'll get (un)lucky; one of these days Kevin will get his wish and Mt. Tolland will gust to 130 and we'll be in the dark until Christmas. As to when...

[Dan76]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know.....we haven't had a decent tropical event in years...

But...when we do get one will that make us good till ''we are do for a good one''again ?

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

But...when we do get one will that make us good till ''we are do for a good one''again ?

Now that you have posted, I hope it will be a while until you are "do for another post".

[CoastalWx]

As Dick Albert used to say, Good bye and good luck.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We are long overdue for a major hurricane strike in New England.

When it occurs, the way in which we evaluate damage will be flipped upside down.

Fact, not opinion.

The 1938 Hurricane was estimated to have downed two billion board feet of trees in New England and NY.  35% of NE forest effected.

I saw one estimate that an equivalent storm today would cause 30 billion in damage. The Ct River Valley would be devastated with that track.

[Typhoon Tip]

Heh...right ...  I might have gone with, never showed up in the first place. 

I get the impression this thing is on the way in the models anyway.  

...The present structure on this thing via various looped satellite channels show an entity with almost non-existent cyclonic momentum.  The day before yesterday there was a distinct cyclonic motion, albeit perceived as weak for being large and spread out a bit anomalously large. Then yesterday, that became more like a 'tendency,' which meant a two-day trend to weaken ( understood seeing as it couldn't sustain convection, SAL or not..).  Now this morning it really appears to be just an open wave with no tendency really for counter-current motion on the equatorial side.  Can't sustain the cyclonic motion if there isn't enough UVM to sustain inflow ... 101  Air blows in, CF bends it... blah blah  

... The Euro's 00z 'art' appears to be a correction scheme remnant more than an actual perpetuation of a physical drive.  Not sure if these models are still engineered with the following technique in mind... but, back in the day there were "memories" in the runs... almost like echoes of the former cycle to prevent wayward solutions dropping real events based upon any myriad of reasons (usually technical/initialization related).  Whether any of this has much merit to the present scenario or not... I have seen this sort of thing in the runs countless times over decades of modeling the tropics...where the day before vanishing whatever was being tracked shrinks in both size and intensity.  This thing is frail little peanut in a stampede of westerly elephants in this solution. We could also get into other jazz about how the Euro may not be the best tool in the shed for digging up spin ups in the first place ..etc..  

Frankly, the GFS's stalwart insistence of a mere dent in the PP moving up toward the Bahamas appears to be the safest assumption when removing any public relations concerns. Putting any 'spin-able' entity there is heh...uneasy a bit, agreed.  But it is what it is.  We said a couple few days ago "...if it survives the SAL..."; then yesterday it moved under a seemingly targeted packet of westerly shear as those some great invisible force thinks it is funny to drive proverbial nails into the coffin (most likely) of Ray's desire to be entertained.

ha j/k 

Now, ...I'm sure this thing will turn into Category 4 bomb 20 naut. mi ene of 

[Hoth]

2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The 1938 Hurricane was estimated to have downed two billion board feet of trees in New England and NY.  35% of NE forest effected.

I saw one estimate that an equivalent storm today would cause 30 billion in damage. The Ct River Valley would be devastated with that track.

I would take the over on that estimate. Replacement cost of real estate on eastern LI, southern CT, RI, MA coastline alone would probably run to many billions, without considering the cost of a full rebuild of electrical infrastructure east of landfall or inland flooding. I'd put the estimate closer to Sandy's $50 billion, perhaps higher.  Also, interesting to note that CT actually has more forest land than in the 30s, owing to decline of agriculture. Certainly won't lessen any impact.

[NJwx85]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh...right ...  I might have gone with, never showed up in the first place. 

I get the impression this thing is on the way in the models anyway.  

...The present structure on this thing via various looped satellite channels show an entity with almost non-existent cyclonic momentum.  The day before yesterday there was a distinct cyclonic motion, albeit perceived as weak for being large and spread out a bit anomalously large. Then yesterday, that became more like a 'tendency,' which meant a two-day trend to weaken ( understood seeing as it couldn't sustain convection, SAL or not..).  Now this morning it really appears to be just an open wave with no tendency really for counter-current motion on the equatorial side.  Can't sustain the cyclonic motion if there isn't enough UVM to sustain inflow ... 101  Air blows in, CF bends it... blah blah  

... The Euro's 00z 'art' appears to be a correction scheme remnant more than an actual perpetuation of a physical drive.  Not sure if these models are still engineered with the following technique in mind... but, back in the day there were "memories" in the runs... almost like echoes of the former cycle to prevent wayward solutions dropping real events based upon any myriad of reasons (usually technical/initialization related).  Whether any of this has much merit to the present scenario or not... I have seen this sort of thing in the runs countless times over decades of modeling the tropics...where the day before vanishing whatever was being tracked shrinks in both size and intensity.  This thing is frail little peanut in a stampede of westerly elephants in this solution. We could also get into other jazz about how the Euro may not be the best tool in the shed for digging up spin ups in the first place ..etc..  

Frankly, the GFS's stalwart insistence of a mere dent in the PP moving up toward the Bahamas appears to be the safest assumption when removing any public relations concerns. Putting any 'spin-able' entity there is heh...uneasy a bit, agreed.  But it is what it is.  We said a couple few days ago "...if it survives the SAL..."; then yesterday it moved under a seemingly targeted packet of westerly shear as those some great invisible force thinks it is funny to drive proverbial nails into the coffin (most likely) of Ray's desire to be entertained.

ha j/k 

Now, ...I'm sure this thing will turn into Category 4 bomb 20 naut. mi ene of 

It's actually not doing that bad at the present moment now that it has managed to shed that large convective blob to the Northeast. It's clearly being sheared significantly but it is still generating a good amount of convection to the East of the center.  

 

As long as it stays to the North of the islands it should be entering a more favorable area for development over the next day or so.

The 12z spaghetti models all show strengthening after day 2 and a recurve.

[Ginx snewx]

12 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I would take the over on that estimate. Replacement cost of real estate on eastern LI, southern CT, RI, MA coastline alone would probably run to many billions, without considering the cost of a full rebuild of electrical infrastructure east of landfall or inland flooding. I'd put the estimate closer to Sandy's $50 billion, perhaps higher.  Also, interesting to note that CT actually has more forest land than in the 30s, owing to decline of agriculture. Certainly won't lessen any impact.

Event name	2015 Insured Loss
1926 Great Miami, Category 4 Hurricane	$119 billion
1928 Okeechobee, Category 4 Hurricane	$72 billion
1947 Fort Lauderdale, Category 3 Hurricane	$60 billion
2005 Katrina, Category 3 Hurricane	$58 billion
1965 Betsy, Category 4 Hurricane	$53 billion
1992 Andrew, Category 5 Hurricane	$52 billion
1960 Donna, Category 4 Hurricane	$46 billion
1938 Great New England, Category 3 Hurricane	$44 billion
1900 Galveston, Category 4 Hurricane	$44 billion
1950 Easy, Category 2 Hurricane	$28 billion

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh...right ...  I might have gone with, never showed up in the first place. 

I get the impression this thing is on the way in the models anyway.  

...The present structure on this thing via various looped satellite channels show an entity with almost non-existent cyclonic momentum.  The day before yesterday there was a distinct cyclonic motion, albeit perceived as weak for being large and spread out a bit anomalously large. Then yesterday, that became more like a 'tendency,' which meant a two-day trend to weaken ( understood seeing as it couldn't sustain convection, SAL or not..).  Now this morning it really appears to be just an open wave with no tendency really for counter-current motion on the equatorial side.  Can't sustain the cyclonic motion if there isn't enough UVM to sustain inflow ... 101  Air blows in, CF bends it... blah blah  

... The Euro's 00z 'art' appears to be a correction scheme remnant more than an actual perpetuation of a physical drive.  Not sure if these models are still engineered with the following technique in mind... but, back in the day there were "memories" in the runs... almost like echoes of the former cycle to prevent wayward solutions dropping real events based upon any myriad of reasons (usually technical/initialization related).  Whether any of this has much merit to the present scenario or not... I have seen this sort of thing in the runs countless times over decades of modeling the tropics...where the day before vanishing whatever was being tracked shrinks in both size and intensity.  This thing is frail little peanut in a stampede of westerly elephants in this solution. We could also get into other jazz about how the Euro may not be the best tool in the shed for digging up spin ups in the first place ..etc..  

Frankly, the GFS's stalwart insistence of a mere dent in the PP moving up toward the Bahamas appears to be the safest assumption when removing any public relations concerns. Putting any 'spin-able' entity there is heh...uneasy a bit, agreed.  But it is what it is.  We said a couple few days ago "...if it survives the SAL..."; then yesterday it moved under a seemingly targeted packet of westerly shear as those some great invisible force thinks it is funny to drive proverbial nails into the coffin (most likely) of Ray's desire to be entertained.

ha j/k 

Now, ...I'm sure this thing will turn into Category 4 bomb 20 naut. mi ene of 

The last 5 months of weather have sure put a dent in my PP.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Event name	2015 Insured Loss
1926 Great Miami, Category 4 Hurricane	$119 billion
1928 Okeechobee, Category 4 Hurricane	$72 billion
1947 Fort Lauderdale, Category 3 Hurricane	$60 billion
2005 Katrina, Category 3 Hurricane	$58 billion
1965 Betsy, Category 4 Hurricane	$53 billion
1992 Andrew, Category 5 Hurricane	$52 billion
1960 Donna, Category 4 Hurricane	$46 billion
1938 Great New England, Category 3 Hurricane	$44 billion
1900 Galveston, Category 4 Hurricane	$44 billion
1950 Easy, Category 2 Hurricane	$28 billion

Steve, does that account for increase in population/infrastructure, or is that simply a conversion to 2015 $?

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Steve, does that account for increase in population/infrastructure, or is that simply a conversion to 2015 $?

 

In the recent AIR Currents article, Katrina 2015, AIR asks what levels of damage could be expected if a storm with the intensity, size, and track of 2005's Hurricane Katrina were to recur today.

Historical storms, if repeated, may have very different consequences from when they originally occurred. A whole raft of factors changes the game, the most important of which is increased development and rising replacement values in at-risk areas. At the same time, the evolution of building codes, improved flood defenses, and the implementation of other mitigation measures work to reduce risk.

AIR has estimated insured losses for a number of significant historical hurricanes in the United States based on exposures as of the end of 2013, to see what their impact would be today. The table below gives the results for the ten storms with the highest losses, rounded to nearest billion U.S. dollars. Hurricane Sandy ranked 16th on the list and does not appear in this table.

These figures include modeled loss to property, contents, and business interruption as well as additional living expenses for residential, mobile home, commercial, and auto exposures. The losses also include demand surge-the upward pressure on labor and materials costs after a major event.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Thank you, Steve.

Interesting, so while it seems many of us have exaggerated the impact of a modern day 1938 redux, Sandy isn't even on the list and pales in comparison.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thank you, Steve.

Interesting, so while it seems many of us have exaggerated the impact of a modern day 1938 redux, Sandy isn't even on the list.

IDK man 44 billion is a lot, the infrastructure damage is what would screw us. Surge would be a great loss to the south coast but inland trees would be the major issue.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

IDK man 44 billion is a lot, the infrastructure damage is what would screw us. Surge would be a great loss to the south coast but inland trees would be the major issue.

Don't get me wrong....it is huge, but what I mean by overstating it is that I always assumed it would be the most costliest natural disaster in US history by default.

Automatic.

[Hoth]

I put virtually no weight on any model intensity forecast. They just frankly suck. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Def. though it would eclipse Andrew since it brushed Miami.

I was in Homestead a couple of months ago, and it's pretty small now, never mind a quarter of a century ago.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Don't get me wrong....it is huge, but what I mean by overstating it is that I always assumed it would be the most costliest natural disaster in US history by default.

Automatic.

Real estate values in South florida and the masses that live there are why those numbers are off the hook, plus an intact 26 storm with full trop slow motion yikes, its flat so lots of flooding . 38 concentrated its deep devastation west of the Cape and Boston so there is that. Push that east 75 miles and the Cape and EMA would get the brunt. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Man, Franklin may make cat 2 if the sheer holds off...

[Typhoon Tip]

59 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The last 5 months of weather have sure put a dent in my PP.

haha...  .huh...yeah..  

"Weather," for all it's sectors of plausible entertainment, has unilaterally maintained a remarkably long era of serenity.  

Just exactly what the secretly coveting dystopian deviant mind longs for ...  

I was musing to self recently a fantastic science-fiction (or perhaps fantasy) genre plot for a novel. The holistic arc of which explains this incredible quiescent non-event planetary calm ... Hate to admit, the cliche of "...before the storm" creeps in there.

Basically, the fantasy idea is that the mythical representation of a holistic Earth, as a self-aware sort of functional entity to which we are merely just a part, 'Gaia,' fights back the only way she can. 

Or is it "he" can?   ... in this day and age of crushing PC rule, everything has to be gender neutral. Maybe Gaia is a trans-gender, bi-sexual that is equally handsome and equally pretty ...  a force that gets a merit award for participating whether 'it' wins or not.  Does that make everyone happy?  

But Gaia has a new strategy in seeking cure for it's own cancer: Humanity.  You see, she ...it, whatever, has been throwing thrust-quake tsunamis of biblical proportions as us ... glacial melt, sea-rise, expanding deserts, deadly heat waves and bio-engineered lurid pathogens ... and, that list of Armageddon is not any deeper than the lists of signs Humanity has been routinely ignoring. Ignoring, and/or psychotically rationalizing for the cause of protecting profits on Quarterly earnings reports (amazing really..)  

It's a trope scene in one of those end of the world block-buster films.  One that flicks by in a flash animating some clueless failure to grapple with the more critical imminent concept.  Some suit-clad, well groomed Wall-street douche's briefcase is forcibly flung open by the tumult around him. The air around him fills with it's contents:

Money.  

He's scrambling as though he actually has a chance to herd all those dollars back into their pen. He ultimately gives up. Looking around quickly as though anyone were paying attention to him at all, over the import of his "riches", he slams the cover shut and scurries away to fade into the dust, falling debris and screams.  

The only problem with this metaphor is that the dust and falling debris is occurring under the radar.  Gaia doesn't want to 'warn' us any longer. The time of warnings is over. We are listing.  We're ignoring the list    

It's not as grotesque as a falling mountain (asteroid). It's not as gross as flesh melting off of one's bones because of some Darwinian time-bomb virus that liquefies the soft tissues of their hosts by some exit ensymatic infection - the virus doesn't know that it's M.O. 86's its own evolutionary path.  Ironic that the host is a force that engages in the same f'n thing. 

But that man protecting his briefcase strikes me as a microcosm of the present day Humanity. With all that din of death and dystopian horror firing off around ... 'Mine, mine mine.'    

So no more warnings.  Fine.  Gaia has resolved to extermination, and takes on new tactic: lull them into a faux sense of plausible deniability and security... Get them to relax their guard (not that they ever respected the threat enough to mount much defense anyway...).  Let them carry about their ways and build up so much momentum in stench, depravity and fetid putrescence of immorality that when it is too late and kill switch is flicked on, the finality is absolute.  

 

[NJwx85]

Pretty much a lock that we'll have Hurricane Franklin at the 10AM CDT advisory. Even if the surface winds aren't quite up to par they have had flight level winds >65kts and the system is clearly strengthening at a fast clip.