Hoth Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Trough scooping it this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Another holy**** run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Much faster solution this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Another Sandy type solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Much faster solution this time. Is that good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 That would be devastating. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 44 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: horrible analogy, most deaths in Florida were in Homestead, last I looked not a barrier Island, you want to satisfy an unnatural obsession with damage and destruction as long as its not you. Marveling at nature hitting the shore and divorcing what it does to fellow Americans is brutally ignorant. People determine their own level of risk via the decisions that they make. Homestead is about 10 mi from the ocean under the latitude of Miami. No one forced them to live there, so take your belligerent drivel to OT where it belongs. As a social worker, I empower folks to elicit the requisite self determination to make their own decisions, which also entails an inherent level of accountability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Whineminster said: Is that good In the sense that if the ridge began to weaken, and if it had stalled a bit like on the previous run, it would have more chance to recurve ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: People determine their own level of risk via the decisions that they make. Homestead is about 10 mi from the ocean under the latitude of Miami. No one forced them to live there, so take your belligerent drivel to OT where it belongs. As a social worker, I empower folks to elicit the requisite self determination to make their own decisions, which also entails an implicit accountability. Come on Ray. Didn't Katrina and Harvey sadden you a bit? Homestead is part of the major Miami metro. That said-bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: Come on Ray. Didn't Katrina and Harvey sadden you a bit? Homestead is part of the major Miami metro. That said-bring it! Anyone with a modicum of capacity to think critically can simultaneously appreciate the power of nature, and the element of human suffering. Yes. But I don't control it, and I suggest that this thread follow my lead in divorcing myself from that conundrum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 RIP NYC on 18z gfs, entertaining to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 18Z GFS..... jeez. About the worse track possible for NYC and New England. We are all on the dirty side. Faster too. Can we start locking down weather inpacts county by county yet or wait one more day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 That run would bring 15-20 inches of rain to portions of E NYS and N NJ. A trough in advance of the 'cane would bring many inches, softening up the ground for more trees to come down when Irma hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 The cold air plume that rushed in after Irma on the previous run is but a figment of the imagination on this run, and we could be approaching 90° at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Man.. you just wish we were 24 hours out and could lock all these ens and op runs . That eerie, magical feeling you get in SNE the night before a tropical system hits . Just gives you chills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 you guys are interesting the way you sort of like find cracks to hiss off steam with big events in models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Anyone with a modicum of capacity to think critically can simultaneously appreciate the power of nature, and the element of human suffering. Yes. But I don't control it, and I suggest that this thread follow my lead in divorcing myself from that conundrum. " No one forced them to live there " Dead right, cash in some stock options and buy a bug out home in Aspen. What's wrong with these people? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 22 minutes ago, kdxken said: " No one forced them to live there " Dead right, cash in some stock options and buy a bug out home in Aspen. What's wrong with these people? Done with the elitist attitude. Mostly poor people suffer in disasters because it's much cheaper to live in high risk areas. I don't need to take anything OT either He directly wished for an Andrew repeat to satisfy an obsession. Sorry morally corrupt B.S.. I totally understand fascination with extreme meteorology but his comments were way over the top and brutally unnecessary in the context of Meteorology discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 hour ago, 78Blizzard said: The cold air plume that rushed in after Irma on the previous run is but a figment of the imagination on this run, and we could be approaching 90° at the end of the run. Weather typically heats up after a hurricane passes (though a week after Sandy we had a snowstorm lol). The one thing that could have made Sandy worse was big rains preceding it (we only got like 1") And in defense of Ray, all of us are fascinated by extreme weather. That's why we keep talking about storms from the past, like 1821, or 1893 or 1938 or 1944 or the Blizzard of 1888 or the Blizzard of 1978. C'mon folks, none of us controls the weather, so wishing for extreme weather has nothing to do with wanting anyone to get hurt. San Francisco had an all-time record high of 104 today and Sacramento is supposed to hit 110 tomorrow! No one is tlaking about this lol. I like extreme heat as much as I like big snowstorms or hurricanes. All of these can kill, but I don't wish for anyone to die or even get hurt even if I do root for extreme weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Done with the elitist attitude. Mostly poor people suffer in disasters because it's much cheaper to live in high risk areas. I don't need to take anything OT either He directly wished for an Andrew repeat to satisfy an obsession. Sorry morally corrupt B.S.. I totally understand fascination with extreme meteorology but his comments were way over the top and brutally unnecessary in the context of Meteorology discussion. You need to sharpen your sarcasm detection skills. I am on your side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Man.. you just wish we were 24 hours out and could lock all these ens and op runs . That eerie, magical feeling you get in SNE the night before a tropical system hits . Just gives you chills The GFS is such a c*ck tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, Paragon said: Weather typically heats up after a hurricane passes (though a week after Sandy we had a snowstorm lol). The one thing that could have made Sandy worse was big rains preceding it (we only got like 1") And in defense of Ray, all of us are fascinated by extreme weather. That's why we keep talking about storms from the past, like 1821, or 1893 or 1938 or 1944 or the Blizzard of 1888 or the Blizzard of 1978. C'mon folks, none of us controls the weather, so wishing for extreme weather has nothing to do with wanting anyone to get hurt. Wishing for an Andrew repeat is exactly that. I would rather see a Cat 5 hit where Brett hit , get to see power with minimal human tragedy. There is a fine line. Like I said the great majority of wish casters for destruction don't own homes, businesses or live within miles of thr coast. Like me saying I wish for a 8.0 quake to hit California to see what the power of nature would do. We all know what happens. To say you would be disappointed with a Cat 2 and would rather a Cat 5 hit Florida is at a level that is inappropriate and unsympathetic. Spare me your fascination and obsession. Just discuss the meteorology and leave your fantasy home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, kdxken said: You need to sharpen your sarcasm detection skills. I am on your side. Oh I knew man, was just piling on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoth said: That would be devastating. Wow. Ah ... yeah. That is the quintessential worse case imaginable scenario for NYC... The utter ender for that metropolis. You people think that's hyperbole, but those proportions are essentially correct - utter destruction. You're that is the modeled scenario by NCEP/NASA divisions that specialize in "special circumstance" disasters that transcend the typical dystopia we think of ... Category 4 storm approached the NY Bite from SSE at accelerating forward motion... A weaker storm brought wind to 185 mph in gusts on Blue Hill...The geology of that region would bring a 22 or so open shore surge probably to 40 feet or more right up the Hudson. Infrastructure would probably take years to restore. That's after the region's structural edifices were even cleared to return after surge and wind damage... ah well.... by NYC. fun while it lasted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, JC-CT said: The GFS is such a c*ck tease. Windshield wipers this far out. GFS likes to break down ridges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ah ... yeah. That is the quintessential worse case imaginable scenario for NYC... The utter ender for that metropolis. You people think that's hyperbole, but those proportions are essentially correct - utter destruction. You're that is the modeled scenario by NCEP/NASA divisions that specialize in "special circumstance" disasters that transcend the typical dystopia we think of ... Category 4 storm approached the NY Bite from SSE at accelerating forward motion... A weaker storm brought wind to 185 mph in gusts on Blue Hill...The geology of that region would bring a 22 or so open shore surge probably to 40 feet or more right up the Hudson. Infrastructure would probably take years to restore. That's after the region's structural edifices were even cleared to return after surge and wind damage... ah well.... by NYC. fun while it lasted... Hey eastern Mass would get butkis lets do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Wishing for an Andrew repeat is exactly that. I would rather see a Cat 5 hit where Brett hit , get to see power with minimal human tragedy. There is a fine line. Like I said the great majority of wish casters for destruction don't own homes, businesses or live within miles of thr coast. Like me saying I wish for a 8.0 quake to hit California to see what the power of nature would do. We all know what happens. To say you would be disappointed with a Cat 2 and would rather a Cat 5 hit Florida is at a level that is inappropriate and unsympathetic. Spare me your fascination and obsession. Just discuss the meteorology and leave your fantasy home. Well I didn't really like Andrew either (not just because of the death that occurred which was awful enough, but because it was a small system that took a boring track.) Something like Donna in 1960 is more what I would like to see which hit all of us with Cat 2 winds. How many people here have actually been through Cat 2 winds? They are plenty scary. I have no desire to go through a Cat 3+ storm. 100 mph storm with 10 inches of rain would be plenty for me. Something like Patricia (which was the most extreme hurricane we have measured) hitting a sparsely populated area might be interesting for research purposes, but I'm not sure I'd even root for something like that. Seeing Josh's video was scary enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, Paragon said: Well I didn't really like Andrew either (not just because of the death that occurred, but because it was a small system that took a boring track.) Something like Donna in 1960 is more what I would like to see which hit all of us with Cat 2 winds. How many people here have actually been through Cat 2 winds? They are plenty scary. I have no desire to go through a Cat 3+ storm. 100 mph storm with 10 inches of rain would be plenty for me. You should chase , document destruction then go home to a nice warm bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Last night I asked what were the chances of Irma actually making a US landfall. I threw out 25% ( think). The chances of everything coming together to have the eye of a 945mb cane going directly over NYC must be extremely low, 1 in 500? Who knows. That track would be about the worst possible for NYC. My gut still thinks an escape east is what will happen but that is based on gut and not science.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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