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Tropical Season 2017


40/70 Benchmark

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17 minutes ago, Hazey said:

You can kinda see the goal posts narrowing ever so slightly. The GFS comes south a little each run. The euro comes north a little each run. That's your Carolina hit. Possibly.

I'm liking the Hugo analog. Ots is far less likely then into the Caribbean now. With the mean being a SE us hit. As a major and it's damn what a season for the US

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48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That occurs with the H5 anomaly in the right place, but the trough is sort of filling in and lifting out. The ridge builds NE of it. 

yeah there's many ways to get it done. 

Obviously there are those that prefer the idealized set ups at all times ...well behaved from the get go.  But sometimes things have to grind out - Sandy was not idealize.  wham.  Not here of course ...but makes the point nonetheless...

I don't think I have ever seen a cyclonic entity modeled below 940 mb's ... actually much below 950, at that particular latitude (100 mi S of Montauk LI and nothing stopping until Narrag. Bay (probably) ends Providence RI as we know it in a solution like that.  Speaking just to the fantasy of this run - obviously...

That said, it's a little worrisome frankly that the GFS has been so persistent with ungodly low pressure nearing the outer Bahamas... Not for here - per se ... but 'the americas' for f sake. jesus.  I've seen three cycles now with sub 900 mb lows at sea level around 25N/70W ... unprecedented modeling behavior, sure. But one helluvan homage to the necessity to sitting up and taking notice.  Even if it completely whiffs (still the probable at this range!) ... that's unheralded and operationally that's not some that to f around with that type of top 5 barometric pressure depth.  And it's not just deep.. that circulation envelopment is like two to three times larger than the average TC

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1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

Well that is quite the weenie run for Irma.  The important takeaway is that the 18Z run is west of the 12Z run.  

Yeeeeah...okay, but not really ...

we are so far away from hockey-sticking deteministics that it may as well trend to the Gulf like the Euro before coming all the way back again... so it's not really much of take away to be honest.

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