wxeyeNH Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Nice change on the 12Z GFS. Hopefully out to sea she goes... I know the weenie part of me always wants a nice storm but we don't need another major. We have debated this many times on these boards and no need to do it again... but sometimes think I need a shrink. The weather weenie part of me always loves a big storm and then the emotional sane part of me reminds me of the horrible catastrophe that ensues..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Does anyone know the link to the graphics many post on twitter which shows wind shear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 5:02 PM, weatherwiz said: Does anyone know the link to the graphics many post on twitter which shows wind shear? Expand This one? http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 5:04 PM, Juliancolton said: This one? http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF Expand Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 4:45 PM, dryslot said: FWIW Expand Big tides in Fundy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 5:13 PM, tamarack said: Big tides in Fundy. Expand Congrats Eastport? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 If you look at the GFS OP H5, that's an ok look for a closer pass or hit vs what is depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Seems like there could be a bit of dry air and stronger shear Irma will have to contend with during its journey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 5:19 PM, weatherwiz said: Seems like there could be a bit of dry air and stronger shear Irma will have to contend with during its journey. Expand Which ends up being the case in many instances, That's why its waaaayy to early to predict the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 The general takaway from this(and that's all that can be used at this lead time) is that the Northeast US and the Maritimes are very much in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 5:25 PM, Hazey said: The general takaway from this(and that's all that can be used at this lead time) is that the Northeast US and the Maritimes are very much in play. Expand Eh, 11 days out...I'm not sure you can say that with any confidence. With that logic anyone from Jamaica to Newfoundland is in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 5:26 PM, CoastalWx said: Eh, 11 days out...I'm not sure you can say that with any confidence. With that logic anyone from Jamaica to Newfoundland is in play. Expand Fair enough. and they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 5:26 PM, CoastalWx said: Eh, 11 days out...I'm not sure you can say that with any confidence. With that logic anyone from Jamaica to Newfoundland is in play. Expand I still bet on this fishing out, but def. worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 5:28 PM, Hazey said: Fair enough. and they are. Expand HeyI don't mean to be a Debbie...but it seems like the confidence is a little high in this thread.....you really need to wait several more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 5:30 PM, CoastalWx said: HeyI don't mean to be a Debbie...but it seems like the confidence is a little high in this thread.....you really need to wait several more days. Expand I think In the next 4-5 days we can say with good confidence whether she fishes or hits the US. We need to get inside a week out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 who's doing the EURO PBP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 I told my son last night it could hit Mexico to Maine or out to sea. Any of those options. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Gefs has alot of members all over. There really isn't any members in the gulf. Some of them hook into the mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 10:52 AM, PeabodyFlood said: Expand It is difficult to tell which of those furthest east members are Irma and which are the tropical cyclone that develops behind it. FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 4:55 PM, dryslot said: Out past truncation so taken with a grain of salt, At least something interesting to track Expand Certainly an odd angle of approach. Unorthodox solutions of of that nature are more often than not a step in the model's evolutionary process of reconciling the pantheon of displayed possibilities with the ultimate reality of a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 5:52 PM, JC-CT said: It is difficult to tell which of those furthest east members are Irma and which are the tropical cyclone that develops behind it. FWIW Expand Connect the dots...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 6:06 PM, dryslot said: Connect the dots...... Expand Looks to me like most take Irma in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles. Wouldn't that be a nut cruncher- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 6:04 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Certainly an odd angle of approach. Unorthodox solutions of of that nature are more often than not a step in the model's evolutionary process of reconciling the pantheon of displayed possibilities with the ultimate reality of a whiff. Expand It is, And Sandy was as well, Odds still do not favor a LF in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 6:07 PM, dryslot said: It is, And Sandy was as well Expand Right. "More often than not" Sandy is the red-headed meterological step-child of Irene and Edouard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 6:07 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks to me like most take Irma near the Greater Antilles. Wouldn't that be a nut cruncher- Expand It does if you can filter out the wave behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 6:06 PM, dryslot said: Connect the dots...... Expand They get a little jumbled in the middle there, don't you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 6:10 PM, JC-CT said: They get a little jumbled in the middle there, don't you think? Expand Nah, If your eyes are good you can see right thru them...........lol, Sort of like those puzzles folks post that have a number inside of them on FB......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Interests from Havana to Halifax should closely monitor the progress of this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 6:14 PM, eyewall said: Interests from Havana to Halifax should closely monitor the progress of this system Expand Of course. Three quarters of the fun is the chase not so much the catch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 The Euro OP has the second cyclone now. It's a wavy train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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