tamarack Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 21 minutes ago, Hazey said: I would say your location could see a cat 1. All depends on track and speed. You want the storm to be booking it as it heads through the gulf of Maine on a due north track. Rare but possible. We would need another Juan (high end Cat 2 at 43N), but moving faster as it would have to cross more cool water and then about 60 miles over land, even more for a northeast-quadrant hit. Not much in the way of serious hills until one reaches the Kennebec Highlands, 10 miles to my south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Wow Irma up to 100 mph sustained already. Weird that a storm that strong and that far out and at that latitude doesn't go way out to sea before even sniffing the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 58 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Hurricane irma 75kts. This could be a huge problem. Gfs is downright scary d10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 27 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Wow Irma up to 100 mph sustained already. Weird that a storm that strong and that far out and at that latitude doesn't go way out to sea before even sniffing the east coast Why? systems do in fact upon occasion, leave the west coast of Africa, develop at varying rates... traverse the entire basin, and impact the Americas. Strength doesn't really have much to do with that frequency - unless someone can actually produce that data. "Gloria" and "1938", just to name two popular ones from the annuls were both category 5 at one point. I think (maybe) things only seem that was purely for geographical arguments. The chances that any one system will do so is low just because that's like 1/5th the distance around the planet in a residence of some 10 to 15 days ...Any MDR system has to traverse cleanly without being disrupted by either track alterations, or hostility to strength ... that whole distance; which is inherently asking a lot in the first place. But the ones that do, ... do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Impressive at this lead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 I have a question for you tropical guys.... What makes a hurricane larger or smaller in overall size? I understand intensity better...dry air....eyewall replacement cycles etc. What I don't understand is overall system size. Some storms have hurricane winds/TS winds going out for hundreds of miles. Other storms are small and compact but still have intense winds right around the eye. If you have a storm like Irma that forms way out in the Atlantic and has a week over the tropical Atlantic does the overall system grown in size too? I am guessing it doesn't. Probably the mid layer moisture/ island interactions/shear all effect size too. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 This just looks like a classic MDR, Cape Verdi transit system; with one very notable exception. They tend to be blithe as they churn without any instruction for days ... During "buckled" flow regimes, they may get coaxed to go right earlier by 'weaknesses' in the geopotential medium as those plumb to unusual depths in latitude and provide paths of lesser resistance. TCs always then move toward...etc.. In this case, we are dealing with an unusual circumstance. The synoptic evolution mid-way across the Basin is unilaterally forecasted to strengthen said geopotential medium...which imparts more NE-SW- steering level vectors between 2 1/2 and 4 ... 4 1/2 days worth of the CV trek. The system being caught up in that (as modeled...) bends it's course back SW during that time. I have heard others bare reference to the fact that this thing gained a bit of latitude that too early, ... incongruous wrt to other historical examples; however, that bend back to the SW is also unusual relative to that same data set. That implies a bit of "uncharted waters" for one. But it also neutralizes that former implication (or should) down to almost none. It's like tying the game up in the beginning of the 2nd Half, and well ... you're looking at at 0-0 contest regardless of the actual score. I would almost recommend looking more at analogs beginning in 3 or 4 days from now because at that point, we "should" have a TC moving along by then escaping that SW motion ...and it will be resuming more of a typical beta-drift pattern of motion... All of that, plus... the Euro and EPS spraying the track guidance among members clear from Houston to 300 naut mi SE of Halifax NS ...combined with the fact that all guidance are showing some poor consistency with handling the structure/orientation/timing of the larger synoptic picture ... between Chicago and Bermuda doing D 7 to 13 ... that whole period being so nebular, combined with the aforementioned leads me to suggest there is 0 predictive skill ... or very very low percentile for any region west of ~ the 60th longitude axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Impressive at this lead Irma wasting no time getting down to business. GFS has been steadfast in tanking the central pressure in this in short order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Hazey said: Irma wasting no time getting down to business. GFS has been steadfast in tanking the central pressure in this in short order. Very favorable conditions for rapid intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Very favorable conditions for rapid intensification. Yup and more or less will continue to be for quite some time. Baring a close encounter with large islands, I think we'll see a clinic on what a storm can do with the right setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 5 hours ago, PeabodyFlood said: Starting to get a bit more concerned that this pay be part of the 5%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Starting to get a bit more concerned that this pay be part of the 5%. Agreed. Standard caveats of plenty of time to go, TC unpredictability and all, but Irma has definitely caught my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 She's going north of the Antilles on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 <900 on the GFS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: <900 on the GFS lol Yes but is a fish storm this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: <900 on the GFS lol And it's been consistent with that pressure for a few cycles now. Not just a hiccup run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Just now, WesterlyWx said: Yes but is a fish storm this run. wait another 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 I don't think it going to fish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: I don't think it going to fish Congrats EPO/NS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Looks like it hits NS at 969 on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 I'm going with the winter rule here. If you are in the bulls eye at hr 240. You won't actually get hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Cirrus will be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Are you kidding me?..lol Here comes another TC at the end of the run heading for the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Cirrus will be nice. Not on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: Not on this run Altostratus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Cirrus will be nice. TC outflow makes for some of the best sunsets. I approve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 4 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Well it's one thing to make a forecast and it's another to go with historical precedent. He's just using the latter. Does not mean it can't or won't happen though, so we monitor. Wild Op GFS solutions fwiw. Which is it....I'm using historical precedent, or making a guarantee? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 James got into this run. Another system towards the end. LMAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Out past truncation so taken with a grain of salt, At least something interesting to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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