weathafella Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Analog...my first direct experience with a big honking tropical system. I was unaware prior but in 1954 I was still a small boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Could always have this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 That's the best version of Gloria. Then again back to the 1954 theme... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 lol you guys are a hoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 A better one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 I wouldn't use any op model . Especially GFS. But this is a very real threat based on ensembles and pattern and sling shot look as it gets near the Bahamas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I wouldn't use any op model . Especially GFS. But this is a very real threat based on ensembles and pattern and sling shot look as it gets near the Bahamas Hard to argue against that. It's a tricky setup but if the pieces fall into place, look out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 That evolution at 500mb on the 00z was amazing. I got chills, they're multiplying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Also, Irma sure looks like a cane to me. Deep convection, hint of warming at the very center. Won't be long now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Don't worry, Ray guarantees that it will go OTS. Don't bother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Don't worry, Ray guarantees that it will go OTS. Don't bother. He made a good call with Harvey so he might be right. I'm sure he'll own it if he's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Just now, Hazey said: He made a good call with Harvey so he might be right. I'm sure he'll own it if he's wrong. Well it's one thing to make a forecast and it's another to go with historical precedent. He's just using the latter. Does not mean it can't or won't happen though, so we monitor. Wild Op GFS solutions fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Analog...my first direct experience with a big honking tropical system. I was unaware prior but in 1954 I was still a small boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 37 minutes ago, Hoth said: Also, Irma sure looks like a cane to me. Deep convection, hint of warming at the very center. Won't be long now. I would tend to agree about Irma being close to or at cane status Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Looks like a possible eye is showing up. 12z best track was set to 70 kts. Subjective ssd dvorak was a 4.0 at 12z (65 kts) so it will probably be a hurricane at 11am edt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Cane in microwave imagery it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 The evolution of the upper pattern is extremely critical, especially when dealing with the potential for hurricanes to come close or make landfall in New England. There is a reason why historically many take the curve out to sea. Given how far we are out the models are going to vary numerous times with regards to the speed of the trough, when exactly the trough pushes through, and also when Irma works up or towards the coast. There are so many factors to consider. When I looked at yesterday's runs my early prediction was either a track into the SE, a curve out to sea, or it sort of stalls off the SE coast and we see a situation similar to Hermene(?) last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 My spidey senses are saying that this storm is going to take a bite out of someone and probably a big bite. Could the U.S. absorb two major hurricane hits in one year? It's possible we find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Jesus it's way too early to speculate. It easily could go over Shrederola and be a Tropical mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Just an interesting side note. I distinctly remember a tropical storm Harvey in the Atlantic north of Bermuda the same year Gloria made it up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Just an interesting side note. I distinctly remember a tropical storm Harvey in the Atlantic north of Bermuda the same year Gloria made it up here. Henri was the H storm that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 "Harvey" has been on this cycle dating all the way back to the first time male names were on it (1981). So yeah, this is basically an original name about to enter the retirement home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 13 minutes ago, dendrite said: Henri was the H storm that year. Ahh. I stand corrected. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 2 hours ago, Hoth said: Those GFS runs were great fun. Goodbye Maine on the 00z. Worth remembering what Scott said about the GFS drastically over strengthening cyclones since the upgrade. I don't think Maine has experienced anything beyond a Cat 1 since 1900. Juan might show that a stronger 'cane is possible at this latitude, but Halifax is a lot closer to that nice warm Gulf Stream than is PWM or BHB. Analog...my first direct experience with a big honking tropical system. I was unaware prior but in 1954 I was still a small boy. I don't recall Carol, but we flew kites during Edna that year, in gusts under 40 mph. Hazel was our biggie, one of only two storms to coat houses with shredded leaves. (The other was a SE gale in June, at Donnell Pond east of Ellsworth. Leaves are much more shreddable in June than in October.) Hazel was probably the strongest TC winds I've experienced, though Bob and 1971's Doria are competitive. All were high-end tropical storm strength at my then-current homes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 I think we can now call Irma a Hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 7 minutes ago, tamarack said: I don't think Maine has experienced anything beyond a Cat 1 since 1900. Juan might show that a stronger 'cane is possible at this latitude, but Halifax is a lot closer to that nice warm Gulf Stream than is PWM or BHB. Analog...my first direct experience with a big honking tropical system. I was unaware prior but in 1954 I was still a small boy. I don't recall Carol, but we flew kites during Edna that year, in gusts under 40 mph. Hazel was our biggie, one of only two storms to coat houses with shredded leaves. (The other was a SE gale in June, at Donnell Pond east of Ellsworth. Leaves are much more shreddable in June than in October.) Hazel was probably the strongest TC winds I've experienced, though Bob and 1971's Doria are competitive. All were high-end tropical storm strength at my then-current homes. I remember the tops of railroad utility poles blowing like tumbleweeds down our street during Hazel. The tracks were a mile away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Hurricane irma 75kts. This could be a huge problem. Gfs is downright scary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 25 minutes ago, tamarack said: I don't think Maine has experienced anything beyond a Cat 1 since 1900. Juan might show that a stronger 'cane is possible at this latitude, but Halifax is a lot closer to that nice warm Gulf Stream than is PWM or BHB. Analog...my first direct experience with a big honking tropical system. I was unaware prior but in 1954 I was still a small boy. I don't recall Carol, but we flew kites during Edna that year, in gusts under 40 mph. Hazel was our biggie, one of only two storms to coat houses with shredded leaves. (The other was a SE gale in June, at Donnell Pond east of Ellsworth. Leaves are much more shreddable in June than in October.) Hazel was probably the strongest TC winds I've experienced, though Bob and 1971's Doria are competitive. All were high-end tropical storm strength at my then-current homes. I would say your location could see a cat 1. All depends on track and speed. You want the storm to be booking it as it heads through the gulf of Maine on a due north track. Rare but possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Newfoundland has gotten a 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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