Hazey Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 Yeah a nice low 50's high 40's moving north of the Caribbean islands. We don't toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 Long nights ahead with 93L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 you guys gotta be numb nuts for not thinking it worth commenting how the Euro develops a new TC in the BOC and moves it precariously close to eastern TX in just 6 days. don't know to laugh or cry - wow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 This Euro run is limited threat to the MA/NE regions... For the reasons I outlined earlier, this run repeats those circulation structures and makes this wing out to sea before getting that far W. Incidentally ... the GGEM solution is the version you should worry about - that's also a 1938 redux set up, too. First and foremost... these are all fantasy range solutions. It is interesting that there is some consistency for an amplitude in that range ...and happening to time a MDR TC well has repeated across a couple few cycles. The period of time in question is also the hottest region on the planet (including the western Pacific) with a few indicators bringing that region in an anomalously favorable regime for development through Sept 20th. That's above climo We'll see what comes of it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 29, 2017 Author Share Posted August 29, 2017 That system is a fish. You need it south of the Cape Verde Islands. Next- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 53 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That system is a fish. You need it south of the Cape Verde Islands. Next- Jeez 40/70....I don't know...... I was just going to post about how 93L was looking ominous for someone, the islands, the Gulf, Florida, East Coast. Attached the 18Z stuff. My knowledge is more limited than most of you guys but it looked to me that 93L might stay south of the trough next week and continue at a fairly low latitude. Way, way out there but at the height of the Cape Verde season and a 90% chance of developing it bares watching. This is all the US needs right now. Another major..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That system is a fish. You need it south of the Cape Verde Islands. Next- Hmm, I would give this a good shot at staying south of the trough and heading west towards S Florida/ Gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 14 hours ago, MetHerb said: That's really why I was amazed. Texas gets 40" events and that's something that will probably never happened here. There's two totally different climates/environments. Sure - 20". Not 40". We'd need two Diane's back to back just to equal one Texas event. To me it's misleading for folks to think "if that happened here" vs. the areal coverage of the rainfall. I think they mean the latter but folks are thinking the former. Oh, I know. We also have a much different topography here than SE Texas. Plus, as you stated, the areal coverage is mind boggling, Still unreal that parts of New England ever received 20" from one event, If that happened today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That system is a fish. You need it south of the Cape Verde Islands. Next- Are you nostradmous? Long nights ahead buddy. Get ready .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 39 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Hmm, I would give this a good shot at staying south of the trough and heading west towards S Florida/ Gulf 500Mb looks way different between Euro and GFS. Right now all the models develop a hurricane. Track is next . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 500Mb looks way different between Euro and GFS. Right now all the models develop a hurricane. Track is next . That's GEFS , op model's are useless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 30, 2017 Author Share Posted August 30, 2017 At this range, I'll defer to climo...someone pull up the product that draws analogs from past systems that have passed within a certain circumference of its current position. It's far out, but I'd like to see it pass south of the CV latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 30, 2017 Author Share Posted August 30, 2017 4 hours ago, wxeyeNH said: Jeez 40/70....I don't know...... I was just going to post about how 93L was looking ominous for someone, the islands, the Gulf, Florida, East Coast. Attached the 18Z stuff. My knowledge is more limited than most of you guys but it looked to me that 93L might stay south of the trough next week and continue at a fairly low latitude. Way, way out there but at the height of the Cape Verde season and a 90% chance of developing it bares watching. This is all the US needs right now. Another major..... Yes, bares watching. You're as qualified as I am, bud haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Good bye and good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 A clean miss is certainly on the table but that is one strong cane modelled at that lead time. I'll take the big swells and surf no problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 93L is looking quite healthy this morning. Fairly moist environment in front of it, at least relative to much of the season to date. No TUTTs either. Certainly worth keeping an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Looks like we have Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 2 hours ago, Hoth said: 93L is looking quite healthy this morning. Fairly moist environment in front of it, at least relative to much of the season to date. No TUTTs either. Certainly worth keeping an eye on. She'll be visiting us in 10-12 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 The 12z GFS has it down to 935 at hr192 north of the Lesser antillies. That is a potent cane being advertised. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Is the GFS spinning up another tropical system for SE Texas in the D5-6 range? Dang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 12 minutes ago, Hazey said: The 12z GFS has it down to 935 at hr192 north of the Lesser antillies. That is a potent cane being advertised. Wow 903mb at 234 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, yoda said: 903mb at 234 Yeah was waiting for the run to finish to see how low it got. That's a beast if it comes to fruition. Damn near crushes Bermuda on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, Hazey said: Yeah was waiting for the run to finish to see how low it got. That's a beast if it comes to fruition. Damn near crushes Bermuda on that run. Thankfully still a miss for the east coast but there is a lot of time for things to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 It is amusing that the gfs still has it at 938mb well into the north Atlantic. Major for Iceland?..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Seems like the tropics have woken up. Crazy 12Z run for the Gulf. Everything way, way out in fantasyland. Develops another cane in the SW gulf and brings it up towards the East Texas coast and then moves it due east. Entire coastline from Houston to W Florida gets raked. Then Irma. Hope it the trough catches it and recurves. At this point 10 days away odds favor that. If it were to miss the trough then all bets are off. I can't imagine what would happen if another hurricane develops in the Gulf as the the 12Z GFS predicts and if Irma misses the trough and heads towards the US in some fashion. A situation like Harvey then a "Jose" then an Irma. Odds are extremely low that a Jose and Irma would be hits but if they were big ones it would be a real test for the country.... PS Wonder how fast the Gulf "recharges" as far as water temperature? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 The fact that the models are hinting that Irma blows up may actually spare the US from a hit. Strong canes tend to move more poleward vs weaker systems. Best case scenario albeit probably unpopular, is for it to split the uprights between the East coast and Bermuda. Way too soon to call that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said: Seems like the tropics have woken up. Crazy 12Z run for the Gulf. Everything way, way out in fantasyland. Develops another cane in the SW gulf and brings it up towards the East Texas coast and then moves it due east. Entire coastline from Houston to W Florida gets raked. Then Irma. Hope it the trough catches it and recurves. At this point 10 days away odds favor that. If it were to miss the trough then all bets are off. I can't imagine what would happen if another hurricane develops in the Gulf as the the 12Z GFS predicts and if Irma misses the trough and heads towards the US in some fashion. A situation like Harvey then a "Jose" then an Irma. Odds are extremely low that a Jose and Irma would be hits but if they were big ones it would be a real test for the country.... PS Wonder how fast the Gulf "recharges" as far as water temperature? Not intending to toot horns but seriously ...this was signaled pretty loudly ...that the end of the month through Sept would be anomalously favorable relative to climatology; coming into focus a couple weeks ago (I posted those at the time). I think it's a pretty tasty score for those tools - it really was a rip and read on my part. The western Gulf does not (unfortunately) need to recharge. Buoys are in the low to mid 80s everywhere, and there was a pretty big plume of severed loop-water that moved into the western Gulf and that's drilling a vortex several hundred feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 1 hour ago, Hazey said: The fact that the models are hinting that Irma blows up may actually spare the US from a hit. Strong canes tend to move more poleward vs weaker systems. Best case scenario albeit probably unpopular, is for it to split the uprights between the East coast and Bermuda. Way too soon to call that though. I wouldn't call a path between Bermuda and the US unpopular, at least not for surfers! Still I think this has the potential to be our first long track Cape Verde in a while. It should really jack up ACE too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 I wouldn't call a path between Bermuda and the US unpopular, at least not for surfers! Still I think this has the potential to be our first long track Cape Verde in a while. It should really jack up ACE tooI agree but there are a some regulars here that will yawn at this unless it's trashing the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Don't get me wrong I would love to witness a hurricane in my adult life because I am a weather extreme junkie and I need authenticity for my fictional writing. Anyways, I see Irma as a major threat to the Caribbean NE Lesser Antilles in the next 6 days, while it is toss up for Bermuda or Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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