powderfreak Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 7 minutes ago, MetHerb said: I just saw this image posted online and I'm very surprised that BOX put this map out. It overlays the Texas precip estimates over New England. Looks like a model image prior to February 2013 or the "Nemo" storm, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 Deep trough around lakes. HP off our coast. And 93L cruising north of islands. Appetizing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 Man KHOU still ticking away at nearly 1"/hr with heavy rain continuing... 0.86" last hour. I cannot imagine just sustained rainfall rates like that for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 31 minutes ago, MetHerb said: I just saw this image posted online and I'm very surprised that BOX put this map out. It overlays the Texas precip estimates over New England. Not enough 's for that. I'm surprised they didn't convert it to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 8 minutes ago, bkviking said: Deep trough around lakes. HP off our coast. And 93L cruising north of islands. Appetizing. Yup. We've been talking that one up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yup. We've been talking that one up I know you promised a hit with this one. I'm all for it. 10 days of tracking coming up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 2 hours ago, dendrite said: Not enough 's for that. I'm surprised they didn't convert it to snow. Love the top of the scale, 14-50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 Poor Houston. Now getting deform band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 You know how we talk about 10+ inches of rain as being an incredibly wet month around here? Just imagine those same rainfall amounts now happening in 24 hours. Now imagine it happening for 3 straight days. Thats insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 I think that's a great tweet from BOX. Shows what will happen when we get a setup like that . Good stuff from them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think that's a great tweet from BOX. Shows what will happen when we get a setup like that . Good stuff from them Actually doesn't even approach showing what will happen, it just shows the areal extent of heavy rain in Texas compared to SNE. With our terrain the damage would probably be far worse because of the moving water. Never mind that 40-50 inches of rain is many more magnitudes rarer in these parts. PWM's 500 year rainfall is about 20" vs. HOU at 40" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 29, 2017 Author Share Posted August 29, 2017 4 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: It is hard for the models to get a handle on a developing tropical cyclone as there is no definitive center of circulation. Ok maybe not explode but become a good sized tropical hybrid system, although the wind shear is decreasing by about 10-20 knots in the last three hours, low level convergence and upper level divergence are increasing substantially as well. It's not hard to get a handle on a pseudo tropical system slingshotting out to sea under is. Easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 Kevin granted you have a lust for seeing other people physically maimed by natural disasters… therefore, you were inclined to interpret that product that way? But that is not what the National Weather Service was after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: You know how we talk about 10+ inches of rain as being an incredibly wet month around here? Just imagine those same rainfall amounts now happening in 24 hours. Now imagine it happening for 3 straight days. Thats insane. Hurricane Diane had 20" in 2 days in parts of New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 Yeah I know Ray, just a bit of hope left for some rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 Harvey,earning the name being retired! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 10 hours ago, OceanStWx said: Actually doesn't even approach showing what will happen, it just shows the areal extent of heavy rain in Texas compared to SNE. With our terrain the damage would probably be far worse because of the moving water. Never mind that 40-50 inches of rain is many more magnitudes rarer in these parts. PWM's 500 year rainfall is about 20" vs. HOU at 40" That's really why I was amazed. Texas gets 40" events and that's something that will probably never happened here. There's two totally different climates/environments. 9 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Hurricane Diane had 20" in 2 days in parts of New England Sure - 20". Not 40". We'd need two Diane's back to back just to equal one Texas event. To me it's misleading for folks to think "if that happened here" vs. the areal coverage of the rainfall. I think they mean the latter but folks are thinking the former. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 On 8/28/2017 at 6:11 AM, CoastalWx said: For the record, it's absurd to claim with any certainty that a cluster of storms in Africa is a threat to New england...2 weeks from now. Excellent point on your part, but he's never going to be satisfied until a Cat3/4 devastates New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 Pushing 50" in parts of TX. Jesus H. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 24 minutes ago, dendrite said: Pushing 50" in parts of TX. Jesus H. Rich Thompson posted this comment about the rainfall on his Facebook page. "Peak rain total in the automated rain gauge network in Harris Co. has been 49.20" as of 6:30am 8/29. If my count is correct, there were ~19 sites with 40+", and the rest of Harris Co. received 25-40" since Friday 8/26". My own comment is wow! Astounding totals after another very rainy night. I think the 49.29 inches is the new record for rainfall with a tropical system in the U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 Here's two links that really show the areal coverage the flooding. The first one shows the rivers in a major flooding stage: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=hgx This one is just amazing with all the highways with water on them across the region: http://traffic.houstontranstar.org/layers/layers.aspx?cam=True Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 the full latitude trough construct and evolution like that is not likely to give y'all what you want out of that CV thing ...provided it actually wins the lottery of traversing the entire breadth of the Basin without first succumbing to the usual suspects in the first place. Supposing that happens, that trough would not bring that up here despite it's tasty looking appeal. Troughs that deep don't tend to align N-S in the steering levels; they are by planetary physics caused to have NE trajectories at mid levels N of the ~ VA Capes... and anything turning N near/adjacent the Bahamas would move N for awhile but then turn near Hatteras and miss SE of LI ...close shave granted but it's gone. What you want is a "weakness" and/or cut off that meanders toward the OV...with some sort of down stream indirectly coupled ridge axis near SE of NS... That would tend to funnel the system N and the S vectors are not turning E at mid latitudes do to large scale wave mechanics like you see with full latitude deep trough anomalies. And, there are other ways to pervert these designs to get a 'cane up this far N but that particular trough structure isn't really it. The best take away if one is an optimist is that having the structure this far in advance is probably better than having the best set up depicted at this sort of time lead. It's like that D9 blizzard on the Euro - ...you almost want to see the ingredients more than the modeled assault at that range, because at that range means too much can and will go wrong to permute the pattern negatively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 55 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: the full latitude trough construct and evolution like that is not likely to give y'all what you want out of that CV thing ...provided it actually wins the lottery of traversing the entire breadth of the Basin without first succumbing to the usual suspects in the first place. TT, The other takeaway is that with a strong troughs that are oriented N/S yank anything tropical quickly northward. A weakness like you are taking about is more like a Hugo situation I think. A northwest moving system would not be moving fast and would have more time to weaken. It would have to come in SW of New England to really get us on the dirty side. The N/S trough setup seems to bring us the big ones.... agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 That depiction on the Euro for 93L spells trouble for the mid Atlantic coast with the deep trough in the midwest and the strong Atlantic ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said: TT, The other takeaway is that with a strong troughs that are oriented N/S yank anything tropical quickly northward. A weakness like you are taking about is more like a Hugo situation I think. A northwest moving system would not be moving fast and would have more time to weaken. It would have to come in SW of New England to really get us on the dirty side. The N/S trough setup seems to bring us the big ones.... agree? You want the steering level to be oriented S to N ... As I was attempting to describe (perhaps unsuccessfully) ... S- N oriented steering levels do not tend to evolve here during very deep latitudinally open wave mechanics.. The flow necessarily is instructed by planetary wave physics to begin turning more NE once you get N of the VA latitudes when trough or full latitude like that. If the flow has a weakness and or cut off that's better, because those anomalies tend to have more S - N oriented vectors in the steering level this far N. That...and as I said, some sort of blocking ridge also in the outer/lower marimtes. But that's all the idealized model .. there anomalies relative to everything - the context/purpose of that was "not getting giddy" over a chart set up that isn't necessarily describing something to get giddy over.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 50.52 in a Texas gauge network Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: 50.52 in a Texas gauge network Checking cocorahs for just Harris County, most thru 7 this morning was a gauge 4 miles south of HOU-center, with 43.33", and still pouring, I suspect. Couple other stations over 42", too. Given all the counties getting drenched, it's not surprising that places outside Harris are getting even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 23 hours ago, dendrite said: Not enough 's for that. I'm surprised they didn't convert it to snow. Like we didn't all do that in our heads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 15 minutes ago, tamarack said: Checking cocorahs for just Harris County, most thru 7 this morning was a gauge 4 miles south of HOU-center, with 43.33", and still pouring, I suspect. Couple other stations over 42", too. Given all the counties getting drenched, it's not surprising that places outside Harris are getting even more. Set to 7 days under menu https://www.harriscountyfws.org/#main Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 Ryan maue posted this on twitter huge storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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