MJO812 Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: She could shoot north and come . Euro was very close We track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 Probably worth keeping an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 Super cold cloud tops wrapping around the COC now. Would not be surprised if Harvey gets to cat 4 today. Reminds me a touch of Joaquin in that the eye hasn't really cleared out in a sustained way despite its strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 Those rain bands sure dry up fast once they push inland towards McAllen. Weird how you can be so close to a hurricane and still be dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 Still holding on to high end Cat II. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 Eye is clearing out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 Fascinating nonetheless.. The Euro and to some lesser extent of development, the GFS, both opt for more of a baroclinic lean on that evolution just off the SE U.S. coast next week. When considering particulars, the latter of the two really behaves over recent run cycles as though it doesn't know what to do with that bag of general numeric instability in that region. The NAO is rising smartly and goes positive pretty much in all essential indicators/guidance resources, so is a safe bet. But that systemically suggests some sort of ridging scenario should unfold between the lower Maritimes and Florida... We are seeing that depicted, but, it's anomalous relative to the standard sort of model; the ridge is displaced N. That is enhancing the easterly flow between Bermuda and Florida ... That makes that region intrinsically unstable regardless ...it seems the GFS is more tuned into that instability rather than doing anything with it - that's why I suspect it ends up with fronto-genesis and pearled lows rippling along as the greatest consequence of all this. The Euro, ...not sure exactly what that is.. It looks sort of like a book-end baroclinic wave, but ...also has hybrid tropical/extra-t low that it deepens quite a bit S of NS given time. Meanwhile, the GGEM seems to either 1) ...just detonates a TC and develops it to modest strength (relative to TCs) as it moves slow N; or 2) perhaps initially triggers a something more baroclinic but quickly transmutes the physics into warm coring. I suspect it's the former, however, given to the history. That, and the nature of the atmosphere in the vicinity of FL and the perceived region that 92L/remnants are moving toward are pretty homogenized with limited or no observable frontal tapestry in that area. So hmm. This is was 92L, that wave from last week that came off Africa and the models were zealous in developing for days and days, all the way across...never succeeding in doing so. However, the zygote disturbance was real and has wended its way up into its current position over the the eastern Gulf; now both shadowed for attention ( or development), by the evolution over the western Gulf. By the way, it's all sort of analogous to a proto-star trying to gather mass for its own life right next to a Super Nova... funny. Harvey weakens over land tomorrow, it's transmitting some relaxation in the shearing masses over 92L ? I think the western Atlantic runs risk of executing wasted potential in all that... Either run could take place.. The GGEM caries the biggest onus because the synoptic evolution provides more of a Euro and/or Euro+GFS blend until such time as a TC detonation actually takes place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Still holding on to high end Cat II. These big storms get shafted when we evaluate strength (category) based only on wind speed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 Just now, jbenedet said: These big storms get shafted when we evaluate strength (category) based only on wind speed.... I think it's about to strengthen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 Webcam from Corpus Christi http://www.citynet.cc/customer-service-center/bayfront-webcam/index Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 Looks it on Sat, Storms are starting to wrap around the COC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I think it's about to strengthen again. Yea. I mean on IR that already looks like a cat 3--and not a marginal one at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 Last recon pass through the eye was 949mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 8 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Yea. I mean on IR that already looks like a cat 3--and not a marginal one at that. heh... IR lies though - we should really rely on DVORAK - which as you all know is derived by IR and Vis channels. I guess by nature, that doesn't say what the status will be in the future; just what it is based on observed cloud tags now. so maybe not. anyway, I've seen insidious black color intonations surrounding perceived CDO's many times ... RECON: "...FAILED TO CLOSE A CIRCULATION" ...D'oh! that all said, ...I mentioned this particular system had a shot at RI yesterday; luckily for Tx's sake, that does not appear to have taken place...there's a chance it still could given all governing parametric kinematics ..blah blah ... but, perhaps Scott's idea with some dry air contamination is saving things here? I realize that people in here casting sentiments like ' OH GOD caught with pants down' are secretly coveting the dystopian horror of the event, and are living vicariously ... but, personally I see some usefulness in NOT denuding that region of the planet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 @Typhoon Tip I don't like the GFS's look. I continue to think it's lost on which season it is. To me, it's focusing too much on baroclinicity. Tropical forcing should take precedence over baroclinic forcing off the coast of northern Fla in late August absent intense UL divergence, which we clearly don't have in this case. The GGEM has the worst verification scores out of the GFS and Euro, but it gets points for consistency here (so far). I'm more inclined to blend the Euro/GGEM here, and discount the GFS until it has a more tropical look off the SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 9 minutes ago, jbenedet said: @Typhoon Tip I don't like look the GFS's look. I continue to think it's lost on which season it is. To me, it's focusing too much on baroclinicity. Tropical forcing should take precedence over baroclinic forcing off the coast of northern Fla in late August absent intense UL divergence, which we clearly don't have in this case. The GGEM has the worst verification scores out of the GFS and Euro, but it gets points for consistency here (so far). I'm more inclined to blend the Euro/GGEM here, and discount the GFS until it has a more tropical look off the SE coast. Not a bad gamble that way ...no. I probably danced around the same idea ... discarding the GFS, in-between the sentences in that synopsis.. Part of my reason for not actually doing so in black and white text is because just what you said, the GGEM blows. (no pun intended), and doing so is sort of a nod toward the GGEM - which no one sane should feel comfortable doing .. heheh. I didn't want/don't want to blend plausible turds with punch-bowl outlooks. ha. you get my drift. That, and as I was saying ..that broad anomalous eastern fetch below that N-displaced ridge E of New England, does support baroclinic waves just based on numeric/static instability. You mentioned GFS's seasonal frustrations - heh, imagine if this set up in late November? oh the humanity! But, that also applies to tropical entities, too ... because that teleconnects typically to lower shear aloft - low shear aloft with easterly flow of warm oceanic air is powder keg; that unfortunately does give the GGEM some weight just by circumstance alone. oy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: heh... IR lies though - we should really rely on DVORAK - which as you all know is derived by IR and Vis channels. I guess by nature, that doesn't say what the status will be in the future; just what it is based on observed cloud tags now. so maybe not. anyway, I've seen insidious black color intonations surrounding perceived CDO's many times ... RECON: "...FAILED TO CLOSE A CIRCULATION" ...D'oh! that all said, ...I mentioned this particular system had a shot at RI yesterday; luckily for Tx's sake, that does not appear to have taken place...there's a chance it still could given all governing parametric kinematics ..blah blah ... but, perhaps Scott's idea with some dry air contamination is saving things here? I realize that people in here casting sentiments like ' OH GOD caught with pants down' are secretly coveting the dystopian horror of the event, and are living vicariously ... but, personally I see some usefulness in NOT denuding that region of the planet. IR certainly isn't infallible--just an estimate of course. To me, what's really the surface wind inhibitor here is the size of Harvey. He's a very large storm. Radius compromising velocity... So for what he lacks in ability to translate pressure falls to surface winds he will make up for in terms of surge, coastal flooding/erosion and rainfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 Impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 Guess I'm coming back to our local NE thread with Harvey. The general tropical thread was great until this morning. Now a ton of newbies with endless posts that add no Met value and all in my backyard questions. Kind of like this post! ha.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 1 hour ago, jbenedet said: IR certainly isn't infallible--just an estimate of course. To me, what's really the surface wind inhibitor here is the size of Harvey. He's a very large storm. Radius compromising velocity... So for what he lacks in ability to translate pressure falls to surface winds he will make up for in terms of surge, coastal flooding/erosion and rainfall... Integrated Kinetic Energy potential is higher than H IKE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Integrated Kinetic Energy potential is higher than H IKE That's funny--IKE is an acronym for Integrated Kinetic Energy... Couldn't be a more appropriate name for him... Third most costly storm in US history...Harvey could top the list... Size matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 9 minutes ago, jbenedet said: That's funny--IKE is an acronym for Integrated Kinetic Energy... Couldn't be a more appropriate name for him... Third most costly storm in US history...Harvey could top the list... Size matters. Most woman would agree................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 RevKev "Congrats TX, Wish we lived there" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 Nice nor'easter on the Canadian. Probably still a pipe dream though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 wouldn't it be funny if Harvey slowed down and stalled ...never having actually made this first land fall? then, i drifts back seaward for a little while before resuming a course more NNE toward the n-central Gulf? I think I actually get off on the realization of the less expected result more so than the events themselves - heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 That's like a Noel V2.0 for the Cape lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 http://www.g-townsurf.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 "they" may have to move quickly on that EC scenario ... CMC with 970 deepener just something like 200 naut mi SSE of Montauk Point at 84 hours! I suspect if it's right about a rapid Bob-a-rino it may actually wait until the OV u/a features settle S ...maybe more like the NAM believe it or not - It's going below 996 E of Mertil Beach at 84 hours but that mid level vortex plumbing S in the western OV would invariably have to snag that and pull it N. welp, if nothing else... the dearth of things to watch is finally filling in - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 Taking all day to be a III. It's these little pesky things which was my concern last night, but it should make it. I thought this morning it could really take off..but it's fighting double eyewalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Taking all day to be a III. It's these little pesky things which was my concern last night, but it should make it. I thought this morning it could really take off..but it's fighting double eyewalls. You can see it on radar pretty easily...the double eyewall...the inner seems to have trouble sustaining anytime it starts to get going: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.