OceanStWx Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I dunno...it's fighting dry air and can't get the core together. Not sold on cat III. Always a threat when they near land, especially with slow storm motion. Decent plume of monsoonal moisture to its west though, so a well timed RI cycle with bath water ahead of it is probably too real a threat to ignore for NHC. Cat 3 almost seems a middle of the road play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Always a threat when they near land, especially with slow storm motion. Decent plume of monsoonal moisture to its west though, so a well timed RI cycle with bath water ahead of it is probably too real a threat to ignore for NHC. Cat 3 almost seems a middle of the road play. Hopefully it can get going a little more in the diurnal min. Dry is relative...just mean environmental conditions a little more hostile. If it goes to III...I would like to see a charge towards it tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Hopefully it can get going a little more in the diurnal min. Dry is relative...just mean environmental conditions a little more hostile. If it goes to III...I would like to see a charge towards it tonight. If it can build up the northern eyewall a little bit, I could see it tonight. That's where the dry air is eating away a bit. The southern semicircle looks great right now. Especially with GOES-16 1 min data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I dunno...it's fighting dry air and can't get the core together. Not sold on cat III. I sent a text to a friend a few hrs ago about the split convection and the dry air on the NE side...even if it doesn't undergo RI, still don't want to be on the coast when it hits, and 2 to 3 feet of rain...holy crap!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 25, 2017 Author Share Posted August 25, 2017 46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I dunno...it's fighting dry air and can't get the core together. Not sold on cat III. Tonight, or period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Tonight, or period? I meant period. Given what we have to work with hard to go against Cat III consensus...but sometimes those pesky attempts to get towers to wrap around indicate some other things happening. Just said not sold...not saying it won't happen. Just not 100%convinced on major at landfall. I mean it's a 5-10 kt difference lol. But it has favorable conditions to go to town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 And as I speak it seems to be going into beast mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 I also admit to being pissed off at Sale defecating on himself so perhaps I let emotions get in the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: And as I speak it seems to be going into beast mode. How about measuring rainfall in cucumbers? 2.5cucumbers of rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 25, 2017 Author Share Posted August 25, 2017 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I meant period. Given what we have to work with hard to go against Cat III consensus...but sometimes those pesky attempts to get towers to wrap around indicate some other things happening. Just said not sold...not saying it won't happen. Just not 100%convinced on major at landfall. I mean it's a 5-10 kt difference lol. But it has favorable conditions to go to town. I'll respectfully disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: And as I speak it seems to be going into beast mode. 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I also admit to being pissed off at Sale defecating on himself so perhaps I let emotions get in the way. Becoming much more symmetrical at the moment. Like the baseball Cleveland peppered all over the park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: And as I speak it seems to be going into beast mode. Whatever the final outcome in strength, your observations and subsequent input is just as valid as the hypsters going crazy in the tropical thread. It's also great that you are not afraid to post your thoughts in an arena that is not your particular meteorological specialty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Whatever the final outcome in strength, your observations and subsequent input is just as valid as the hypsters going crazy in the tropical thread. It's also great that you are not afraid to post your thoughts in an arena that is not your particular meteorological specialty! CAT 6 or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: CAT 6 or bust. Circulation so strong it starts pulling down super cooled columns of air from the stratospher, snow to the gulf coast in August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 So, Kev once again decided to run the GGEM tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 1 hour ago, yoda said: So, Kev once again decided to run the GGEM tonight We pray... Euro still ots but definitely closer... Gfs way ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Thought the Euro was interesting. Hugging the coast up to the outer banks. It was but curved ots... Good trends though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll respectfully disagree. Like I said, it very well could....I just was not 100% confident at the time. Either way high end 2 or 3.....still pretty bad. It still has a ceiling of a 4 if all goes well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 2 hours ago, ineedsnow said: It was but curved ots... Good trends though She may come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 I dunno...it's fighting dry air and can't get the core together. Not sold on cat III. I dare ya to post this in the General tropical tread. Weenies will run you out of Dodge...lol. They're frothing at the mouth for a cat 4-5. Almost unreadable over there. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Like I said, it very well could....I just was not 100% confident at the time. Either way high end 2 or 3.....still pretty bad. It still has a ceiling of a 4 if all goes well. if it doesn't get up to Cat 3 or higher, i hope that people don't get fixated on the fact that it is not as strong as first thought. i am no hurricane expert, but in this case it seems like the rainfall is the biggest threat to the largest area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: if it doesn't get up to Cat 3 or higher, i hope that people don't get fixated on the fact that it is not as strong as first thought. i am no hurricane expert, but in this case it seems like the rainfall is the biggest threat to the largest area. 950mb. Pretty close to a 3 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 Lol....my granddaughter is a freshman at college in New Orleans. My son called me in a panic last night so I started paying attention. I called him back and talked him off the cliff....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 42 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: She may come She gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Lol....my granddaughter is a freshman at college in New Orleans. My son called me in a panic last night so I started paying attention. I called him back and talked him off the cliff....lol. The problem there is that the pumps aren't working I guess. They're concerned about heavy rain. Talk about a city that's a mess....how the **** are t those fixed during prime time season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The problem there is that the pumps aren't working I guess. They're concerned about heavy rain. Talk about a city that's a mess....how the **** are t those fixed during prime time season? Not to get all political again, but it's almost to be expected when so many states and cities are having financial problems...They don't prepare; they just react. And they can't afford to do either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 Last nights euro run looked like a worst case scenario to me for Texas. That's two landfalls in Texas as a hurricane, 3 days apart? At least they still have uncertainty on their side---Harvey makes his first landfall Saturday but doesn't make his second landfall until Wednesday. Christ, even trying to be optimistic in this situation, sounds like pessimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: She gone. She could shoot north and come . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 Harvey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: She could shoot north and come . The ridge over the western Atlantic continues to get stronger on guidance. Timing with respect to the trough has also improved. I was doubtful two days ago. Now I think this needs to be watched until/if the trend for increasing ridging over the western Atlantic stops or reverses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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