CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Hope TJUA radar isn't down. Looks like the eye was going to go straight over the dome. Seems like it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hambone Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 It looks like it is going to go straight over El Yunque Rain Forest in PR. That could be devastating to a truly beautiful area. Big volcano and all kinds of wildlife, streams, waterfalls etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Seems like it? Pushing a half hour now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Seems like it? How do they upload their data? Satellite comnection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 42 minutes ago, BrianW said: How do they upload their data? Satellite comnection? I don't think there is a way, if the site is just a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 GEFS still has maria in close vicinity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 GEFS still has maria in close vicinityConsiderably closer actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Solid drink with Jose. 1.75"+. Bustorama on the GFS/RGEM/GGEM and a couple others on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 About .4" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: About .4" here. Setting up that winter gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Setting up that winter gradient. Eh, I'll make up when you are pounding sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Setting up that winter gradient.With respect to liquid precipitation, yes very well might be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 7 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said: Last few runs of the GFS and today's 12z EURO bring Maria really close to NJ/NE type landfall. The EURO was fun it kind of used Jose's remnants as a pendulum and closes in on landfall before escaping NE. Tonight's 00z GFS was very close with a still very strong Maria at making landfall in NJ. Between the hours of 150 & 168 hours Maria makes a fairly sharp NW turn before escaping E. I know we just got teased with Jose and it is very far out there, but I think this could end up being a close call. I'm sure there's been a lot of history in this thread since last night ... but, I would bet against - I know you said "close" ...not disputing that much. But if there is any deeper sentiment for an impact more directly, in the smoldering context of your post there, ... I'm hedging against that possibility. I also realize you didn't ask me ...but, I also often use random posts as excuse to cleave my own insights forcibly into the fray Anyway, we are in a pattern? I don't see that pattern significantly modulating during the next 7 days. Beyond that, autumn pours forth ... but that's another discussion. As part of a base-line forecasting philosophy, it stands to reason that events inside relatively fixed patterns will tend to repeat themselves until such time as said pattern is significantly (enough) altered. Newton's First Law incarnate really... The simplest thing to say? I could see Maria doing something similar to Jose. Let me necessarily qualify those remarks: "I could see," is a far and away distinction from 'Hey dichhead Met, you f'ed up our party on the EC with ur 'totally wrong' taint - u azzhole!' Which I am anyway - agreed. But, please don't through gobs of subversive derision, or more direct trolling efforts because I'm saying this, specifically. I don't "look" for storm boner one-eyed monster impact fantasies to become reality; I actually more appreciate the challenge of getting to the right ideas. The atmosphere could compose a subtle circulation augmentations for the "intent" of turning this vision into a blunder, though.. (we used to say, "The forecast wasn't bad! The atmosphere just didn't cooperate) The trough near the end of the middle range heralds in what I "think" may be a fairly robust either A ... pattern re-insertion (back toward the punishing persistence of the unrelenting stop heat in the NE summer pattern we were Dickensian treated too..) or, B ... asserting a new pattern altogether that may merely be similar to that. Most importantly ..said trough could come in steeper. If so, it may induce Maria's acquaintance with the westerlies on a more northerly (express) route, as opposed to the current tenor to keep the flow flattish and thus sending it to England at ludicrous speed. Either way ...Maria (I think) has a chance to really be more of an ass-hauler as opposed to these laze faire N drifters imbibing God's urin in the shelf waters S of LI; particularly late in the period.. Flat or tilted, ..it should be inside an actual trough like a coke-straw either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 2 hours ago, dendrite said: Hope TJUA radar isn't down. Looks like the eye was going to go straight over the dome. windalert.com 86 gusting 121 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 hour ago, Bostonseminole said: GEFS still has maria in close vicinity EPS shifted west again too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 It obviously could change, being 180 hr out, but I'm seeing a PNA ridge show up consistently on guidance around that time frame. I think that feature alone would argue for a significantly different outcome than what we're seeing now with Jose, with the massive troughing over the west coast. I know I sound like a broken record with this, but the further west he gets before the recurve north the much greater the chance for an east coast hit. 75W is a critical BM, based on climo. The western side of the NHC's current cone takes her there. We'll have to see if the WAR flexes its muscles again. Either way, between now and the next 72 hrs, we'll have to see where she ends up relative to the current forecast track, and should be able to measurably increase/decrease the threat risk up here based on this outcome alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 9/20/2017 8:20 AM MA-DK-5 West Tisbury 2.9 N 1.75 0.0 NA MA Dukes Classic | New 9/20/2017 7:00 AM MA-DK-8 Vineyard Haven 2.1 WSW 1.51 NA NA MA Dukes Classic | New 9/20/2017 7:00 AM MA-DK-2 Vineyard Haven 0.8 WSW 1.36 NA NA MA Dukes Classic | New 9/20/2017 7:00 AM MA-PL-31 Bridgewater 1.8 SE 1.34 NA NA MA Plymouth Classic | New 9/20/2017 8:20 AM MA-PL-17 Plympton 0.9 NNE 1.32 NA NA MA Plymouth Classic | New 9/20/2017 6:00 AM MA-PL-6 Middleborough 5.5 E 1.21 NA NA MA Plymouth Classic | New 9/20/2017 7:00 AM MA-PL-33 Plymouth 0.6 SSW 1.17 NA NA MA Plymouth Classic | New 9/20/2017 7:00 AM MA-BR-30 Taunton 3.9 N 1.09 0.0 0.0 MA Bristol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Shredded: Core appears to be disjointed. Outer banks northward look-out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Im liking atlantic canada's chances at this juncture. Best look of the season so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Surprised theres not more maria talk in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: Surprised theres not more maria talk in here See Tip's post above. I think it's still too many days out to get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Surprised theres not more maria talk in here Talk about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Models have cried wolf too many times this summer. You'd need models showing landfall inside 50 hours before people will take the solution seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Talk about this. Maybe another "just the tip" tease like it was with jose? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 15 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Surprised theres not more maria talk in here It won't come if it knows that we're onto it, like a tropical Santa Claus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 9 minutes ago, PeabodyFlood said: It won't come if it knows that we're onto it, like a tropical Santa Claus. LOL...I swear it seems that way sometimes doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 19 minutes ago, PeabodyFlood said: It won't come if it knows that we're onto it, like a tropical Santa Claus. Might be something to this. I barely have a memory of hurricane bob until about 24 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Jose could churn up the waters From DE on up, making for a more hostile environment as Maria approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Jose could churn up the waters From DE on up, making for a more hostile environment as Maria approaches. A rain cooled or upwelled western Atlantic is going to make a certain CC poster very angry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 barbuda's asos survived cat 2 winds... why can't ours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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