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Tropical Season 2017

40/70 Benchmark

By 40/70 Benchmark,
in New England

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Hoth

Hoth

Posted
Posted
Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Why's everything political these days, geezus 

GFS 937 mb

 

Nothing political. Bush's FEMA director got torn apart after Katrina. I'm merely stating it will be interesting if FEMA has learned any lessons, or if 12 years of quiescence has led to complacence. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, yoda said:

GGEM looks like a nor'easter that looks really nice but grazes everyone 

Looks can be deceiving - 

that's a hurricane ...at the very least hybrid thermodynamic entity throughout that evolution on that run.  Not that you or anyone asked .. of course.  

It's also a precarious set up with that GL weakness/closing 500 mb trough slipping through Ohio that way... This run partially captures where the previous (00Z) version fully did so. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

I wouldn't trust the GFS solution off the EC for the middle range.

This run is having difficulty envisioning antics in there as tropical vs extra-tropical.  It starts out with a tropical feature that is weak (fine) but then it just sort of vanishes in lieu of a baroclinic low east of Hatteras that it rapidly deepens into a hybrid center ...  It's like one or the other is more likely here.  I'm interested in the Euro with this as the 00z run was not shy in that area, either. 

The funny thing is, ...the CMC runs from 5 or 6 days back were also hitting at the idea ...lost it, now is back on board when the other runs took notice...  egh.  It's interesting why the CMC is so hyper sensitive to CU towers over the ocean (haha), but it there is something to it as a plausible early detection device - just sans and hope at nailing specifics. 

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted

To my eye the 12z GFS was fine until hr 120 when it develops a secondary baroclinic wave to the east of the tropical disturbance along a weak trough seeming to forget which season it is. The GFS then focuses on this wave while fizzling the tropical disturbance along the coast.

If the development of that second wave doesn't happen--as I don't think it should--then that run would have been a helluva lot more interesting up here...

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
55 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wouldn't trust the GFS solution off the EC for the middle range.

This run is having difficulty envisioning antics in there as tropical vs extra-tropical.  It starts out with a tropical feature that is weak (fine) but then it just sort of vanishes in lieu of a baroclinic low east of Hatteras that it rapidly deepens into a hybrid center ...  It's like one or the other is more likely here.  I'm interested in the Euro with this as the 00z run was not shy in that area, either. 

The funny thing is, ...the CMC runs from 5 or 6 days back were also hitting at the idea ...lost it, now is back on board when the other runs took notice...  egh.  It's interesting why the CMC is so hyper sensitive to CU towers over the ocean (haha), but it there is something to it as a plausible early detection device - just sans and hope at nailing specifics. 

Any thoughts on the NAO forecast tip? 

Strongly positive into early next week should argue for a robust high over the western Atlantic...

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted
1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Any thoughts on the NAO forecast tip? 

Strongly positive into early next week should argue for a robust high over the western Atlantic...

well.. thing is, we are seeing that in the tenor of the guidance' - it's just displaced N of normal latitude.   One result of that is an enhancing lower tropospheric easterly anomaly coming into the SW Basin area (Bahamas, Florida out to Bermuda and so forth...).  It's a petri-dish for cyclogenesis, whether tropical or extra tropical in origin.  I think that's mucking with the GFS's computations there.  

 

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SJonesWX

SJonesWX

Posted
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1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

  I'm not sure I have ever seen models indicate such prodigious rainfall.  This is going to be a disaster and I think a lot of people are going to be caught unaware and unable to evacuate.

they should be evacuating now. that's what I would be doing.

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Hoth

Hoth

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, butterfish55 said:

Just realized that 25 years ago today I was a freshman at University of Miami experiencing Hurricane Andrew.  Cat 5 in a dorm at 4:30 in the morning was pretty scary. Sounded like a jet engine on take off for a couple hours.

 

I envy you. Have yet to experience a cat 1, let alone a monster like that.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

  I'm not sure I have ever seen models indicate such prodigious rainfall.  This is going to be a disaster and I think a lot of people are going to be caught unaware and unable to evacuate.

Like a third of the EPS members have 20+ inches for CRP. Strong signal.

43 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 I think come Monday the news reports are going to be ugly.  :(

I mean I don't think it's going out on a limb to say Katrina-esque potential impacts. Possible major landfall, coupled with significant inland flooding.

It's not like you can just evacuate the immediate shoreline either. Someone from CRP needs to get to at least AUS to avoid compounding flood evacuations.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Like a third of the EPS members have 20+ inches for CRP. Strong signal.

I mean I don't think it's going out on a limb to say Katrina-esque potential impacts. Possible major landfall, coupled with significant inland flooding.

It's not like you can just evacuate the immediate shoreline either. Someone from CRP needs to get to at least AUS to avoid compounding flood evacuations.

Kev wish he lived here

IMG_0330.JPG

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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Posted

Just posted to Facebook:

Best guess on landfall of what will be a truly memorable and devastating Hurricane Harvey: 135mph borderline category three/four: Just northwest of Corpus Christy on the Texas coast. It will likely peak as a category four.
You know flooding from the biblical rainfall totals will be bad when storm surges of over 12' and wind gusts of 140mph will not be the main story.
Scary.
If you live there, get out.
The mayor of that city must be high with his voluntary evacuation order.....it should have been voluntary Tuesday, and not since then.

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ct_yankee

ct_yankee

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Kev wish he lived here

IMG_0330.JPG

Huh, I thought that Rockport forecast had to be a photoshop job, but it’s for real! Wow.

Which brings up the question, what’s the record for continuous duration of hurricane conditions in a single place, anyone know? I was unable to find this among the usual lists of TC records using a quick Google search.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, ct_yankee said:

Huh, I thought that Rockport forecast had to be a photoshop job, but it’s for real! Wow.

Which brings up the question, what’s the record for continuous duration of hurricane conditions in a single place, anyone know? I was unable to find this among the usual lists of TC records using a quick Google search.

I'm not totally positive since this stuff changes literally every year, but I think "hurricane conditions possible" is wording that can be triggered by a forecast of tropical storm conditions. Like a strong tropical storm is close enough to a hurricane to say "possible."

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