weathafella Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Maria indeed has become an absolute beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: There are still 60,000 on PR without power, this is going to be devastating That 185mph is in the El Yunkque National forest just south of San Juan. I've been there. A beautiful tropical paradise with 3000 foot mountains. Here is a map of the population density of PR. Mostly the northeast part of the island around San Juan. If the current track held that would put greater San Juan in the right front quad with a screaming east wind off the Atlantic. Worst case scenario. Currently Maria has a small core so still a chance that the worst could miss. I guess eyewall replacement cycles could expand the wind-field. Maybe one of the Lesser Antille islands will disrupt the core but there is plenty of time for recovery. As it looks right now could be a bad, bad situation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: There are still 60,000 on PR without power, this is going to be devastating these maps did AWFUL during irma...cant wait for them to bust again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 30 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said: these maps did AWFUL during irma...cant wait for them to bust again I hope they bust. As far as the maps being poor, I agree that in FL the Euro pooped over itself. But it did well over Barbuda etc and the weather.us maps reflected that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 22 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I hope they bust. As far as the maps being poor, I agree that in FL the Euro pooped over itself. But it did well over Barbuda etc and the weather.us maps reflected that I think part of the problem was that the euro was over the water just west of the coastline, hence stronger winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 1 hour ago, cmasty1978 said: these maps did AWFUL during irma...cant wait for them to bust again NHC 4cast sustained 155 gust to 180 hope that fails too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think part of the problem was that the euro was over the water just west of the coastline, hence stronger winds. Some know some don't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 I bet this one ends up being the strongest of the season...just not sustaining strength with the same duration as Irma.. Fwiw - the last 4 hours worth of positions ...if placed along a rular looks to me as though it misses PR by a pube NE... But, heh, we'd be talking 20 or 30 miles tops. A mere jog back left now would pretty much cancel that out - so it's probably not worth much until something like that persists through dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I bet this one ends up being the strongest of the season...just not sustaining strength with the same duration as Irma.. Fwiw - the last 4 hours worth of positions ...if placed along a rular looks to me as though it misses PR by a pube NE... But, heh, we'd be talking 20 or 30 miles tops. A mere jog back left now would pretty much cancel that out - so it's probably not worth much until something like that persists through dawn. TT... we have talked about landmasses weakening systems slightly and they never seem to get back to RI like they were. Maybe Dominica's tall mountains might do that? Probably too small but there are some high peaks. What a season. Harvey at Cat 4. Irma a Cat 5. Jose a Cat 4. Maria a Cat 5. Just incredible after so many years without big majors... If Maria goes right over PR, wow what a catastrophe. Lets hope the weakness left behind by the ghost of Jose keeps Maria OTS but that is a week off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Unreal what we're witnessing in the Caribbean this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Jose may have been a V too, but recon sort of missed the strongest stuff in between missions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 The images from Dominica with a population of 72k will be very sad. They're about to get wiped out. Can't even fathom what the wind gusts will be on the 4k peaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Can't do this again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Watch it end up on the west side of Florida... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Someone been sprinkling hurricane food in Herbert's box. Funny how some seasons, no matter how good the indicies are, nothing ever gets going and than this season it's like a can't loose hurricane Fest. Really bad for the Caribbean and will probably be remembered down there for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 That's last night's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: That's last night's run. Deleted after i noticed... Thanks though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Deleted after i noticed... Thanks though Np. The new run actually looks a bit further SE. I'll take some rain and 40-50 mph gusts at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Jose is going to set up a COC-block to assure the coast never gets a piece of Maria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 19, 2017 Author Share Posted September 19, 2017 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: I bet this one ends up being the strongest of the season...just not sustaining strength with the same duration as Irma.. Fwiw - the last 4 hours worth of positions ...if placed along a rular looks to me as though it misses PR by a pube NE... But, heh, we'd be talking 20 or 30 miles tops. A mere jog back left now would pretty much cancel that out - so it's probably not worth much until something like that persists through dawn. Pressure wise, maybe...but its not hitting 185mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Per Rick Knabb on Twitter, 2017 is the second hurricane season on record to produce at least two Category 5 landfalls with 2007 having two (Dean and Felix). However, at least four more locations already took a direct hit from Category 5: British Virgin Islands, Saint Martin, Barbuda, and Cuba. Add Dominica to the list after tonight. Just unreal what we're seeing in the Caribbean last few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Dominica destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Can peeps understand why the NAM last night was bunk? Time for peeps to forever drop the NAM when hurricanes are involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 19, 2017 Author Share Posted September 19, 2017 Man, I usually do not like to pull any punches, and will make a pretty definitive call relatively early in the game....but Maria's future is a mess, and I'm not at all sure yet. I favor OTS a bit, but I could see Maria pulling an Irma and just blowing Jose off like Tip on a Saturday night at the bar- http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/09/nor-easter-jose-to-impact-especially.html Focusing more on Caribbean at this point, but will go into more detail on US potential later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Man, I usually do not like to pull any punches, and will make a pretty definitive call relatively early in the game....but Maria's future is a mess, and I'm not at all sure yet. I favor OTS a bit, but I could see Maria pulling an Irma and just and just blowing Jose off like Tip on a Saturday night at the bar- http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/09/nor-easter-jose-to-impact-especially.html I think (and it's a mildly educated guess) that Miami to HSE might frame any potential US mainland hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 19, 2017 Author Share Posted September 19, 2017 15 minutes ago, weathafella said: I think (and it's a mildly educated guess) that Miami to HSE might frame any potential US mainland hit. Yep....I would favor Carolinas, but I did with Irma, too. Whoooosh.....whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 The GFS doesn't even get 0.1" of rain to the Cape lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 7 minutes ago, CT Rain said: The GFS doesn't even get 0.1" of rain to the Cape lol Sorry my meh was meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Sorry my meh was meh No one is a more talented forecaster than you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: No one is a more talented forecaster than you! We meh when meh is needed. Your post is meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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