wxeyeNH Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 1 hour ago, weathafella said: While I would agree this is not worth chasing, this will be/is a non tropical storm when it gets abeam of us with plenty of wind (gale force probably) on the NW side. A nor'easter basically. Jerry, I wonder if a quicker transistion to ET will help spread out the windfield a bit more than foretasted. A 978mb wintertime low passing over the benchmark would sure give metro Boston a good nor easter. With leaves on the trees this would have a bigger impact. Can you please get a rotting rainband or two up here. My lawn definitely could use a drink! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 53 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.9N 71.1W ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 510 MI...815 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Watch Hill, Rhode Island, to Hull, Massachusetts, including Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Watch Hill to Hull * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 That link Ginxy provided is interesting. The gust product gives some funky graphs for September 30....Maria? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Tropical storm warnings Watch Hill to the Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Looks like NHC did a Sandy lesson learned keeping this tropical, its definetly ET based on Sat estimates but guess the continuity issue and warnings are the reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: That link Ginxy provided is interesting. The gust product gives some funky graphs for September 30....Maria? yea one Ens member Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 NAm is pretty windy on the back side for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 RPM takes it basically over ACK. Pretty decent winds for Cape and E MA coastline...prob TS force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: NAm is pretty windy on the back side for sure. Yeah, Cape and the Islands get it pretty good for a few days as it rots offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Curious has to how the models handle the transition. Now that it has baroclinic features....can the NAM be a little more valuable and we slowly hand off the baton to the globals as well? NAm is the NAM..but just talking out loud here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 distinct possibility PR is hit by an upper end Cat 4 maybe 5, geeezus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Curious has to how the models handle the transition. Now that it has baroclinic features....can the NAM be a little more valuable and we slowly hand off the baton to the globals as well? NAm is the NAM..but just talking out loud here. 3km NAM is like 10mb stronger than the 12km Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: 3km NAM is like 10mb stronger than the 12km And out to lunch I may add. 12km NAM looks to have init with around the correct pressure and keeps that pressure pretty stable right up till it's S of us at it's closest, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 It's worth noting that Florida State's Cyclone Phase page kept Jose barely symmetric and warm-cored the whole time using GFS and HWRF, but I'm having some doubts since Jose already lost the symmetric feature. Should be fun watching that cold front move into the area and interacting with Jose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: distinct possibility PR is hit by an upper end Cat 4 maybe 5, geeezus Yeah, that would be worst case scenario for them. That glancing blow from Irma wrecked their electrical grid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 That's definitely a windy look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 I have been trying unsuccessfully to find the strongest hurricane to ever cross Puerto Rico. Maria could be really, really devastating depending on the exact placement of the eyewall. Does anyone have a quick link of the strongest storms to cross the island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 RGEM is pretty far SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 11 minutes ago, WxBlue said: It's worth noting that Florida State's Cyclone Phase page kept Jose barely symmetric and warm-cored the whole time using GFS and HWRF, but I'm having some doubts since Jose already lost the symmetric feature. Should be fun watching that cold front move into the area and interacting with Jose. I agree. I wonder if the GFS products are biased too much on the tropical side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, CT Rain said: That's definitely a windy look. I'm seeing 40kts+ down to 975mb for my area. Won't take much with heavier precip to mix that down. http://charlie.wxcaster.com/text/NAM218/NAM218_Ktan.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 14 minutes ago, CT Rain said: That's definitely a windy look. Folks gonna be surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Folks gonna be surprised Even that POS storm last Labor Day managed 50-60 mph gusts and a bunch of outages in SE CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 13 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: I have been trying unsuccessfully to find the strongest hurricane to ever cross Puerto Rico. Maria could be really, really devastating depending on the exact placement of the eyewall. Does anyone have a quick link of the strongest storms to cross the island? NOAA has an excellent website of historic hurricane tracks that you can narrow down based on the land area and the intensity. https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/ For 65 nautical miles radius from San Juan, Puerto Rico has been hit by Category 4+ directly in 1899, 1928, and 1932. The storm in 1928 landfalled as a Category 5. Hurricane Hugo (1989) was the strongest to hit during satellite era, landfalling as a high-end Category 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 GFS still shows this thing deepening to ~953mb from 977mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Even that POS storm last Labor Day managed 50-60 mph gusts and a bunch of outages in SE CT Can certainly envision some of these " where did this wind come from" posts and " how did my downspout get blown off" type stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: GFS still shows this thing deepening to ~953mb from 977mb. I guess it's still broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Thanks WxBlue for that PR info. Very interesting. So the last high end Cat 3 was 28 years ago. Wow... I was just looking at the new 12Z GFS that is coming out. I only have it to 36 hours on WxBell. It's interesting that the GFS has the pressure falling from 974 to 953mb at hour 36. Position seems similar but the pressure is much lower than at 6Z. What does the GFS see to make this happen. It's going over cooler water. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Can certainly envision some of these " where did this wind come from" posts and " how did my downspout get blown off" type stuff. Yes...I'm sure the downspout carnage will be epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Folks gonna be surprised You're buying the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 35 minutes ago, WxBlue said: NOAA has an excellent website of historic hurricane tracks that you can narrow down based on the land area and the intensity. https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/ For 65 nautical miles radius from San Juan, Puerto Rico has been hit by Category 4+ directly in 1899, 1928, and 1932. The storm in 1928 landfalled as a Category 5. Hurricane Hugo (1989) was the strongest to hit during satellite era, landfalling as a high-end Category 3. A bunch of friends and Co Workers lived in PR during Hugo, have said that they never want to live through another like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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