Hoth Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 Jesus, gather two of every kind in TX if GFS is close to right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, Hoth said: Jesus, gather two of every kind in TX if GFS is close to right. 42" of rain lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 What an extraordinary Euro run that was at 12z this morning... Not that anyone can't see this with their own eyes ...but it takes a Category 1 ...maybe 2 hurricane into the lower 'Bend of the TX Coast, moves it some 50 to 100 mi inland, stalls it... then moves it exactly straight backward right over the exact track it came in on! wow. The coast effectively gets affected twice in that area... But that's not all... it moves it bodily enough back over warm water that it re-intensifies to Categorical before raking the entire upper TX coast over to LA. Then... duh duh dunnn... It tries to suggest some sort of fusion with an N stream as it lifts polarward astride the Apps ...tugging a wallop of wind into the upper MA/NE regions as a transitioning deep low anomaly (certainly so for this time of year. The whole tropics are amazing in this run, too. It also has a RI monster leaving Africa ..that sucker is like a depression before even leaving the coast! weird. Which btw... the system out there now that TPC is ignoring ... is really impressive on satellite. Banding and deep convection 'after' the typical wash-out phase for waves leaving west Africa. Just a fun run overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 Wheres james for this 18z gfs run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Wheres james for this 18z gfs run Haha was just going to post. Just boots the high east and says, "come on up!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 On 8/22/2017 at 0:38 PM, CoastalWx said: 42" of rain lol. something similar happened back in the late 1970's ...when the pattern seemed to be similar to now in a lot of ways ..heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 I'm here everyone, I was watching that GFS run, and I was surprised to see a hybrid hurricane hit the New England coast. I think any system that develops will have the potential for tropical storm force gusts at least over our area as the ridge stays in place guiding the storm west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 rather than just ogling the chart ... that's a very unusually high latitude for TC ... It seems to genesis just on the S side of frontalysis... What's interesting there is that a discrete analysis of the mass field reveals that is not actually the book end vortex that is spinning, but the GFS is trying to use a separate convective feedback to do that -... starting at the VA and N is odd either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 Yeah Tip, I figured it would be a hybrid, but Harvey looks to be developing into a tropical storm now with 45mph winds, it will be a bad storm for TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 I'd love to see an 18z GFS type solution up here but I really don't like that trough--it's too flat, and we don't have the blocking up north to compensate for it. I'm not seeing any reason why it would not escape east near the Carolinas around hr 132. And the H5 capture scenario off the Carolinas just looks downright weeniesh. My guess would be a scrape of OBX and then east, out to sea well south of our subforum... Anyway plenty of time for this, and I'm excited to at least have something noteworthy to watch. Hopefully I'm wrong and the 18z GFS is onto something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro has it too. Just need to extrapolate Hmmm you're right. Interestingly the 12z euro has the necessary players there, we just lose it as a result of poor timing... Looks like the euro is about 24 hrs too slow with the trough for a run up the coast. Plenty of time for that to get worked out though... Don't get me wrong, I'm definitely interested; just doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 12 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Hmmm you're right. Interestingly the 12z euro has the necessary players there, we just lose it as a result of poor timing... Looks like the euro is about 24 hrs too slow with the trough for a run up the coast. Plenty of time for that to get worked out though... Don't get me wrong, I'm definitely interested; just doubtful. Don't tell Ginx. He says it's only 20 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Don't tell Ginx. He says it's only 20 mph Hmm it is, 993 west of Us oh the mass destruction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2017 Author Share Posted August 24, 2017 On August 22, 2017 at 11:36 AM, CoastalWx said: Heat content is not as high as the Gulf loop, but SSTs which is plenty. It's not like you'll have crazy upwelling in that part of the GOM. "ocean analyses show that a warm eddy that broke off from the Loop Current has drifted westward across the Gulf to a location near the projected path of Harvey". 5pm disco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 I guess Kev decided to take over tonight's Canadian run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 Holy sh*t at Harvey. Looks really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 We cane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Holy sh*t at Harvey. Looks really good. Texas is fooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 Harvey may be going into beast mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Harvey may be going into beast mode. Wish we lived there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 Euro was close with 92L but just missed the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 I never thought Harvey would look this good. My guess is the 11am advisory is much stronger than 40kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I never thought Harvey would look this good. My guess is the 11am advisory is much stronger than 40kts. Should be a hurricane sometime today or by tonight IMO. Very good chance of reaching major hurricane status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 Wow, Harvey. Great environment around it too. Might just kiss our 12 year major drought adios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoth said: Wow, Harvey. Great environment around it too. Might just kiss our 12 year major drought adios. my guess is 955-960 at lowest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 Yup ... my experience over decades tells me that TCs in this sort of scenario, over huge IOH to draw from and amid superb deep layer kinematics ... will tend to over-achieve on guidance - sometimes by a considerable margin. We saw this happen with both Wilma and earlier with Katrina ...where ~ 10 knot motion seems to also be in the bell-curve for majority of majors. Both those went through an RI cycle, too. Almost like these ideal scenarios need to cross a momentum threshold then the RI kicks in... Some hypothesis to that ...granted, but just the same... if this thing gets to 80 kts say for spit and theory, don't be shocked if suddenly its more intense then guidance 12 to 18 hours later. Although, interestingly...the 06 Z GFS was down 940 mb ! zomb Meanwhile, the CMC ...albeit likely wrong as that model's very existence seems to routinely prove... does something similar along the EC in the mid range... I find that interesting because some of the global tools have been flagging this period through Sept 10 or so as being particularly active in the Atlantic (particularly out in the MDR region...) but also everywhere in general. It may be more related to numerical instability in the model(s). Euro goes nuts again for the 2nd consecutive run with the CV - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 man...Port O'Connor ...right in that bay could be destroyed but this thing - it just looks like history before it's happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 i bet this thing cleaves out erosion striations right through the barrier islands along Matagorda ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: my guess is 955-960 at lowest Solid cat 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 He'll be a strong 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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