CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: What was the storm you were interviewed on NECN Earl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LikesNaturesFury Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Stupid question here, coming from someone who is NOT educated in meteorology...... I've been told that the NAVGEM is not considered a reliable model for tropical systems (for anything - track or intensity). What is the viability of the CMC with regard to tropical weather systems? Is it considered at all reliable? I'm just noticing that the current NAVGEM and CMC forecasts are very similar for Marie. So I'm wondering if I should not pay much attention to the CMC, or if the similarity is just coincidence at this point. If this question should be asked elsewhere, please forgive (and redirect me). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: LOL, it's still a good wind and rain event for part of the area. That has not changed. Still think near or just SE of the BM..although earlier NW trends were concerning. Notice Snow88 is gone. How is your fish call working out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 16 minutes ago, LikesNaturesFury said: Stupid question here, coming from someone who is NOT educated in meteorology...... I've been told that the NAVGEM is not considered a reliable model for tropical systems (for anything - track or intensity). What is the viability of the CMC with regard to tropical weather systems? Is it considered at all reliable? I'm just noticing that the current NAVGEM and CMC forecasts are very similar for Marie. So I'm wondering if I should not pay much attention to the CMC, or if the similarity is just coincidence at this point. If this question should be asked elsewhere, please forgive (and redirect me). Gem is slightly more skillful than the NAVGEM, but as a whole they are not skilled at track or intensity forecasts for hurricanes. You're best best is to use the ECMWF, UKMET, and the TVCN (ensemble bias corrected consensus). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 20 minutes ago, LikesNaturesFury said: Stupid question here, coming from someone who is NOT educated in meteorology...... I've been told that the NAVGEM is not considered a reliable model for tropical systems (for anything - track or intensity). What is the viability of the CMC with regard to tropical weather systems? Is it considered at all reliable? I'm just noticing that the current NAVGEM and CMC forecasts are very similar for Marie. So I'm wondering if I should not pay much attention to the CMC, or if the similarity is just coincidence at this point. If this question should be asked elsewhere, please forgive (and redirect me). In general the Euro outperforms everyone. At 5 days it's the Euro, gap, Ukie/GFS, gap, CMC. At 3 days they are more bunched up (one would hope) with the Euro, Ukie, GFS, gap, CMC. Also see the post above for more tidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Earl. That Earl had to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 21 minutes ago, Snow88 said: How is your fish call working out? where do u have it making landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Fishies is where its at with this one. 18z GEFS are further offshore than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 On to Maria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Fishies is where its at with this one. 18z GEFS are further offshore than 12z. i rather go with the Euro this close than the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: On to Maria Looks like Jose is really going to help keeping Maria for making a US landfall. With the loop thing Jose it creates the weakness in the high so instead of Maria staying way south and heading into the general direction of the US the storm will head north and probably OTS. All conjecture so far out. What is more concerning is a RI with Maria and then a direct slam into PR as a Cat 3+. PR has 3 million people so if the inner core came directly over the country the overall devastation and loss of life would be far greater than small islands like Barbuda St Martin or the VI. Watch Maria carefully over the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 40 minutes ago, Snow88 said: How is your fish call working out? Not bad. Eyewall into Coney Island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 12 minutes ago, Snow88 said: i rather go with the Euro this close than the gfs Euro is a fish storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Not bad. Eyewall into Coney Island? Funny thing is even if that happened it still wouldn't be a big deal with the way it's forecast to weaken to 65 mph at our latitude. Landfall on Coney Island at 65 mph was what Irene did and it wasn't a big deal until you got up to Vermont, which was where most of the damage was done (inland flooding.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Euro is a fish storm. I guess we'll have to be happy with a couple of inches of rain and 50 mph winds on Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Rain may only make it back to the Cape me thinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Not sure if it's Jose related, but I'm getting heavy rainfall from a storm moving Northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 1 hour ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Not sure if it's Jose related, but I'm getting heavy rainfall from a storm moving Northwest. PRE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Damn Maria has a tight core already and radar is confirming microwave http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 18 minutes ago, Hoth said: PRE! What's PRE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Damn Maria has a tight core already and radar is confirming microwave http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles nhc 5 day track of this storm and intensity forecast show this thing making a mess of the islands and keeping strength into the end of the period. I did a historical search 200NM from the day 5 forecast point for majors in Sept.. Some decent storms on that list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 1 hour ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Not sure if it's Jose related, but I'm getting heavy rainfall from a storm moving Northwest. Poured here for about 5 minutes.... It could be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 10 minutes ago, bobbutts said: nhc 5 day track of this storm and intensity forecast show this thing making a mess of the islands and keeping strength into the end of the period. I did a historical search 200NM from the day 5 forecast point for majors in Sept.. Some decent storms on that list. That site is super cool and user friendy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 14 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: What's PRE? Preliminary Rain Event Someone can correct me but IIRC as the cyclone gains latitude there's very often a ton of rain generated to the north and northeast of the storm as it transitions to ET.....somyou get a bunch of rain out ahead of it and then the actual TS impacts.....like a double whammy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 6 minutes ago, ice1972 said: Preliminary Rain Event Someone can correct me but IIRC as the cyclone gains latitude there's very often a ton of rain generated to the north and northeast of the storm as it transitions to ET.....somyou get a bunch of rain out ahead of it and then the actual TS impacts.....like a double whammy Technicality: Predecessor rain event You have the general idea though. What you're getting is an enhanced area of rain separate from the main rain shield but connected to the TC via an enhancing upper level jet. Basic ingredients are trof to the west of the TC, shortwave ridging just ahead of it. RRQ of upper level jet nearby. Low level front on the periphery of tropical moisture. Meaning that zonal flow, trof to the east, and/or low level ridging are all bad for PREs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Glad we didn't invest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 24 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: That site is super cool and user friendy. agreed.. might as well post the link https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 We tick SE on 00z tropical models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 18 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Technicality: Predecessor rain event You have the general idea though. What you're getting is an enhanced area of rain separate from the main rain shield but connected to the TC via an enhancing upper level jet. Basic ingredients are trof to the west of the TC, shortwave ridging just ahead of it. RRQ of upper level jet nearby. Low level front on the periphery of tropical moisture. Meaning that zonal flow, trof to the east, and/or low level ridging are all bad for PREs. Thanks....I knew I may have had that first word wrong....thanks for the technical setup.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 The RPM was run out of Kevin's basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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