CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Seasonal trend near benchmark already showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: Good luck. I'm rooting for you this time. I'm sure Ill be wrong. I always am you know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 I agree with Gene. Most of New England will not see much of significance, at least in terms of wind. If it stalls, some flooding could take place. SE coastal areas could see some decent flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 It's goes ET.. that's why it should happen.. in theory. No one thinks It stays warm core lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 No real signs of ET until east of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 7 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Old run. New run cut back a bit. Have no idea why that one uploaded . IPad is an issue here, switched to phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There is well NW. It's in Deep Thunder and HRW too Impressive on those models, time will tell but experience keeps me thinking of Noel, Eduardo etc etc etc. West side blues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 This is about what I envision. Gusts to 40 or so. Good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This is about what I envision. Gusts to 40 or so. Good stuff Expecting an outage over gusts <40mph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Just now, dendrite said: Expecting an outage over gusts <40mph? Weak infrastructure in that state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 I still worry about the east ticks. Would have liked to see euro a tad more NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I agree with Gene. Most of New England will not see much of significance, at least in terms of wind. If it stalls, some flooding could take place. SE coastal areas could see some decent flooding Well we're another tier NW too. Maybe we sneak in some tropical rains, but it takes a special system to get big winds for us. There will be some impacts for the usual coastal locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 18z Tropical models still over the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 We Maria? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Weak infrastructure in that state. Perhaps the < than sign was missed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Well in all kidding aside....if anything has awakened...it's the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We Maria? Omega?or is it Omehga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Well in all kidding aside....if anything has awakened...it's the Atlantic. I mean it's like a firehose of TCs being fired at the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Euro does have a 65kt 850 LLJ over centrl CT at hr 72. Sure it may not mix down..but that's pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro does have a 65kt 850 LLJ over centrl CT at hr 72. Sure it may not mix down..but that's pretty good. I could see some inconsistent gusty winds over inland areas. Like the pressure gradient will occasionally mix one down, but more often than not it won't be more than run of the mill windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: I could see some inconsistent gusty winds over inland areas. Like the pressure gradient will occasionally mix one down, but more often than not it won't be more than run of the mill windy. 925 is 62 mph so a good mix might but yea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 8 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: I subscribe to Weatherbell and its definitely worth it to me. I almost never post subscribed graphics but I will post these for just 10 minutes (since I gave them the plug!) and then I'm taking them down. This is why I'm just not feeling this storm. I see the post about 40 and 60mph and over 60mph wind gusts and the 7" rain totals. Here are the 12 Euro total storm rainfall and the highest winds for any time stamp I could find. Sure some gusts could be higher. Rainfall looks to be an issue from perhaps Providence to Boston and SE ward.... They carry a gust product Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: They carry a gust product I'm not sure how they generate that though. Could just be a multiplication factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I could see some inconsistent gusty winds over inland areas. Like the pressure gradient will occasionally mix one down, but more often than not it won't be more than run of the mill windy. Always take the most conservative route. Don't try and look outside box ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Always take the most conservative route Well looking at forecast soundings I would say it's going to be hard to get 60 mph gusts over a large chunk of inland areas without a 60 mph LLJ. Most of the core of the wind is above the low level inversion, so you're almost waiting for winds to back NW before the mixing depths increase. You should be able to get your rocks off on some 45 mph gusts anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I'm not sure how they generate that though. Could just be a multiplication factor. I just looked at the 12Z Euro gust maps. Interestingly the strongest wind gusts are on Wed AM on Long Island and the Conn coast. 50 to 55mph gusts. As the storm moves ENE its weakening so the gust in SNE are in the 35 to 45mph range. Even Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket do not get gusts much above 45mph... There is no land place on any Euro 6 hour time stamp that records a 60mph gust... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Euro ensembles look pretty close to 00z. Maybe you could argue a bit further NW with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 By the way 12Z Euro on day 8 to 10 it now has Maria slowly moving north almost in a Jose type fashion right towards New England. Slow is the key as high pressure is over and north of us. So not a fast moving cane running up the coast with a deep trough to the west, at least not on this run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Sucks this all happens overnight and not during the daylight hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 If those were like 6 hour increments on the Euro instead of 24, I'd say Maria looked like '38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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