weathafella Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Probably a 55-60 mph TS with those winds in a small area on the east side. This thing probably gets destroyed by the shear and is just a nasty nor'easter Also Jose loses the water warmth a day before getting here. If 26C is reasonable t sustain a tropical system, SST will fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Probably a 55-60 mph TS with those winds in a small area on the east side. This thing probably gets destroyed by the shear and is just a nasty nor'easterAny extra tropicals transition you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 17, 2017 Author Share Posted September 17, 2017 1 hour ago, Bostonseminole said: Poor James, he's got passion, people should relax a bit. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk If by "relax" you mean tolerate egregiously incorrect posts, while any efforts to remediate are met with resistance, then that concept is about as ridiculous of some of the posts in question. He isn't "new" anymore...he's been here a few years. Dude, watch what would happen if he ever took that $hit into the main thread....this is mild. Anyone with a true passion for the weather is interested in learning and accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 17, 2017 Author Share Posted September 17, 2017 I hope Jose gets the hell out of here....dies and/or gets picked up by something. All its going to due is serve to try and leave a weakness behind for Maria to follow it down the path to irrelevance- God, that useless system just will not go away.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Euro much closer!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 congrats on the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Euro is ukie like!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: congrats on the rain Pretty strong LLJ, my Euro bladder woke me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 17, 2017 Author Share Posted September 17, 2017 Rainy day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Tick west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 NAM Trending even further west at 6z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Ha, interesting euro. Although ensembles do not seen as far west...but definitely trended Nw. Looks like trough not as sharp in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ha, interesting euro. Although ensembles do not seen as far west...but definitely trended Nw. Looks like trough not as sharp in Canada. I can see a scenario where the idea of it coming due north to maybe around 40N/71W is right but its probably going to make a decent right after that. I still think any landfall is unlikely and that more likely a scare happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 If by "relax" you mean tolerate egregiously incorrect posts, while any efforts to remediate are met with resistance, then that concept is about as ridiculous of some of the posts in question. He isn't "new" anymore...he's been here a few years. Dude, watch what would happen if he ever took that $hit into the main thread....this is mild. Anyone with a true passion for the weather is interested in learning and accuracy. People were a little rough on him and there was no reason for that’s all I was saying. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Just to add Ray, he’s not the only poster on this board that post “egregiously incorrect posts” and yet those are let to post away. Treatment should be equal not matter how senior a poster may be.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 6 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: People were a little rough on him and there was no reason for that’s all I was saying. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk agreed, and he has a genuine enthusiasm for weather....he is no different than a few other folks on here and he adds more analysis and logic to his posts than those folk(whether or not the perception is perceived as accurate from the schooled mets/academics is debatable)...but he tries...so at worst he is a little dramatic at least he doesn't rip and read from twitter and facebook...that is huge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 funny, looking at the eps, the most likely landfall location is southern nj/delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Any good winds with that inland? Am I don't mean what the Euro shows verbatim. Looking for conjecture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 1 hour ago, Bostonseminole said: Just to add Ray, he’s not the only poster on this board that post “egregiously incorrect posts” and yet those are let to post away. Treatment should be equal not matter how senior a poster may be. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Well good morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Well...that was an interesting Euro run. Some pretty impressive gusts verbatim on the coast and LI. Strong nor'easter type impacts, but fully leafed out trees could bring a few weak ones down. Blocking on Euro/Ukie is pretty robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 The tropical models are still pretty far east. I'm not sold on something south of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The tropical models are still pretty far east. I'm not sold on something south of LI. NHC claimed they moved the track west but it sure was hard to see where. They may be gambling the models are overcorrecting somewhat at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: NHC claimed they moved the track west but it sure was hard to see where. They may be gambling the models are overcorrecting somewhat at the moment. Yeah I would wait to see what today brings instead of knee jerking to the NAM and a couple of globals that hit the sauce last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 I highly doubt these solutions are right. There's no Midwest trough. Wagons way east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 ACK, MVY, CHH, Block Island might be fun A breezy rain in my hood. Jose will be quickly forgotten other than the funky track. Then again, I was suggesting that Roosta/Don evac to Tampa prior to Irma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Recon finding winds 100mph now. 970mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 What I would like, is for those rains to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What I would like, is for those rains to occur. What we would like... is for those winds to occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 7 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: Thats gonna be a disaster for NHC if that ends up being correct. They gotta be sweating the Euro run now Really - Not to be a confrontational.. but a couple facets make me wonder if that would be entirely fair: 1 ... forecast error is well advertised ... some tools are worse than others, but 200 to 350 mi by 120 hours. Much, if any impact at all outside of long-shore swells permeating way out from 00z's initialization of Jose...wouldn't be felt until ~ 90 hours? But more importantly, the perceived center of the cyclone wouldn't be nearing those latitude/longitudes until 96+ hours. That puts the forecast error responsibly outside of fault. There is (related) also a reason the old mantra of not focusing on the eye of the cyclone, works. 2 ... their hashed "cone of uncertainty" as it is called does in fact encompass regions as far W as CT to central MA up through SE Maine... I think these 'bump NW' solution fit into that.. ..I get why you are saying that, though? These facets may be correct, but the public is touchy with this sort of thing .. and it's at best an unpleasant PR minefield trying to negotiate explanation courses around a track that verified a destroyed harbor, when their "official" track guidance' may not have been anywhere near said harbor.. That's the unsavory position... Those that were not directly affected ...will begin to eventually see the intellect/logic of it and agree that it's not NHC's fault... However, those that really do suffer any monetary losses due to the storm? Forget it! They will elide those principles of reasoning in order to justify exacting a liability revenge. We haven't lived in a culture that exactly embraces and accepts personal culpability in any breath it takes ... since... I dunno, the boon time of Lawyers began circa 1970s and 1980s.. I think it's related to relative affluence of the society as a whole.. Wild digression for a moment, but despite any poverty, travails or perceived iniquities amid our echelons being no different than any other industrialized societies of the world, ours are, fairly, categorize-able as having less of those... We've lived in relative/comparable success, ease and comforts ...for many decades ...really since WWII. Despite any recession ...despite this and that... we have by and large emerged to dust off and never really be worse for the wear. That's provides a culture that leads to unilateral senses of entitlement - "affluenza" occurring in everyone, not just in a particularly egregious examples in a court room in Texas. And the first thing that people of privilege do when faced with the reality of something they hate? Blame other people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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