Ginx snewx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 12:40 AM, 78Blizzard said: GFS gets down to 891mb. Max winds show as about 135 mph. That pressure calls for CAT 5 winds unless impeded by topography in vicinity. Almost all the southeastern peninsula and the entire southern end are covered by the Everglades, the world's largest sawgrass swamp. Not too inhibiting. If anything, GFS wind field is underdone at that pressure. Expand There are no 175 sustained on any model did see 155 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 1:17 AM, Sugarloaf1989 said: Good God if it's hits Texas. Expand Highly unlikely lots of sw winds aloft but EGOM in play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 1:14 AM, Ginx snewx said: Expand That's bye-bye Miami scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 1:19 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said: That's bye-bye Miami scenario. Expand Trend GIF I made last 6 GEFS runs, could shoot the gap destroying Key West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 1:17 AM, Ginx snewx said: There are no 175 sustained on any model did see 155 Expand 155 knots in west quadrant= about 175 mph. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon®ion=11L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2017090418&fh=123&xpos=0&ypos=368 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 1:21 AM, Ginx snewx said: Trend GIF I made last 6 GEFS runs, could shoot the gap destroying Key West Expand At least most in Key West would evacuate, not so sure about most in Miami. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 1:22 AM, 78Blizzard said: 155 knots in west quadrant= about 175 mph. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon®ion=11L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2017090418&fh=123&xpos=0&ypos=368 Expand Ah my bad thought it was mph , knot bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 1:18 AM, Ginx snewx said: Highly unlikely lots of sw winds aloft but EGOM in play Expand Hopefully land interaction with Hispaniola rips it apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 1:25 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said: At least most in Key West would evacuate, not so sure about most in Miami. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 I wonder if that disturbance in the western GoM will affect Irma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 1:27 AM, Ginx snewx said: Expand Outside of Charley (which could have been worse) Florida, despite it's location, has played a pretty good game of Tropical Russian Roulette over the past 20 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Irma starting to get that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Almost could have just rerun that 18z GFS for the 00z, lol. I don't think I saw more than a 25-50 mile difference in any position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Lol at the CMC solution. Brings it over the FL panhandle, vs over Delaware on 12z run at same time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
w1pf Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 The axis of heaviest precipitation will come right through Amherst. I know this because my newly-re-landscaped yard is getting seeded early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 lol...euro grinds it over Cuba now. Hopefully that weakens it before it climbs north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Awesome looking storm right now. The north islands are in a pretty dire situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 6Z gfs with a slight east shift... Destroys alot of eastern florida my girlfriends dad is up visiting from port st lucie... Hes going back thursday hope everything is good for him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 9:46 AM, dendrite said: lol...euro grinds it over Cuba now. Hopefully that weakens it before it climbs north. Expand While the Cuban mountains don't rival those on Hispaniola or Jamaica in height, any interaction there will almost certainly lower the intensity. How frequently have we seen that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Wow! 175mph.. nobody believed the GFS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Irma full-on beast mode right now. Northern Lesser Antilles and the Greater Antilles are in the cross-hairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 12:09 PM, dryslot said: Monster Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Save a horse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 12:28 PM, Ginx snewx said: Save a horse Expand Helpful. Funny how it has such a good look at 120 and then les so until 48z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 11:53 AM, Bostonseminole said: Wow! 175mph.. nobody believed the GFS lol Expand Because the GFS was way to intense pressure wise. Not wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 12:40 PM, CoastalWx said: Because the GFS was way to intense pressure wise. Not wind.Yes. She's at 175 with a 929 pressure. Just imagine 870s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 12:40 PM, CoastalWx said: Because the GFS was way to intense pressure wise. Not wind. Expand I hope no one believes those SLP #s. GFS is not coupled to the oceans from what I've seen/read so it can lead to these huge storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 12:49 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: I hope no one believes those SLP #s. GFS is not coupled to the oceans from what I've seen/read so it can lead to these huge storms. Expand Yes, I read that too. Things like sea spray which can help calm the boundary layer, not taken into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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