Ginx snewx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 8:25 PM, OceanStWx said: It could be be an ensemble prediction system, not THE ensemble prediction system. Expand yea I see that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 8:25 PM, Ginx snewx said: yea I see that Expand Definitely doesn't match the 12z EPS that I saw (and clearly they are labeled totally differently too). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 8:16 PM, ROOSTA said: To much dependency on the run to run and the rhetoric that follows. This I think everyone knows, any location to the W is still in the game. FACT as much as some would debate. Obtaining Major status one might conclude a more Northerly track, coriolis effect... A stout ridge to the north blocking that process. So one looks to other "steering" components, there's a trough. Boils down to placement and timing plain and simple! Expand oh...it boils down to helluva lot more than that... we don't even know if those features are really going to be there ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Any sites out there that has all 80 something Ensembles? For some reason I just had a hunkering for spaghetti. EURO a strong signal for a stage right. Still to far out to lock any track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 8:17 PM, Ginx snewx said: Obvious who own homes and who doesn't, who lives near the south coast and who lives way inland. big difference living in Wilmington mass and Wilmington NC in wishing Expand I own a very nice home. Bring it down-let's shake things up! Kidding obviously. I have a sprawling oak on the slope pointing downhill south. A southerly wind to reverse the natural arrangement would have to be extreme. It has survived a long time including '38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 gosh this thing is exceptionally well formed with very classical structuring... Everything about it symmetric and unimpeded looking... the models have this thing about 3X this present size or more getting W of 70 W out there in time; clearly we'll have to see this morph into a much larger tempest over the next few days. It's really interesting to just have days and days of no mitigation modeled like that - this Irma was certainly born into a charmed existence! talk about a privileged child. that's how you know it's going to be a killer ... of what, who knows. but it'll kill something, whether animate or inanimate. these blithe children of lesser wealth gods, they don't tend to learn or appreciate, or even possess sentience that is compassionate of others. The "affluenza" of storms... they just think the world is there for their taking - wait, what was I talking about .. oh yeah. you almost do have to wonder if this thing won't get to some exotic strength for heaving so much integrated momentum.. .At some point, it could end up with 'true' concentric inner eyes... like a faux one at 100 naut mi or something, then one at 50, then a true one at 15... hahaha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 know what's funny ... when thing surpasses Tip as the biggest baddest bad-ass beyotch in the history of name conventions ... that azzhole Tip will have to change his handle to Irma. oy, how life deals - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 8:32 PM, weathafella said: I own a very nice home. Bring it down-let's shake things up! Kidding obviously. I have a sprawling oak on the slope pointing downhill south. A southerly wind to reverse the natural arrangement would have to be extreme. It has survived a long time including '38. Expand Damn , just made this comparison from Modis in SE Texas/La, June then Sept Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 8:32 PM, weathafella said: I own a very nice home. Bring it down-let's shake things up! Kidding obviously. I have a sprawling oak on the slope pointing downhill south. A southerly wind to reverse the natural arrangement would have to be extreme. It has survived a long time including '38. Expand Most here very much want this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Come a week from Monday remember me! LOL On 9/1/2017 at 8:50 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Most here very much want this Expand Ah no. It's nice to watch from afar but backyard is definitely not "wanted" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 8:50 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Most here very much want this Expand I'll stick with 2-3 foot nor'easters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 8:49 PM, Ginx snewx said: Damn , just made this comparison from Modis in SE Texas/La, June then Sept Expand Impressive! Arguably natures way of pruning. Everything will grow back even thicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 nice... 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 8:15 PM, Ginx snewx said: I'd like to see a Cat 5 out to sea in between Bermuda and the East Coast. No need to wish destruction and death but some monster rollers would be cool. Expand No one is explicitly wishing for death and destruction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 9:10 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: No one is most are not explicitly wishing for death and death and destruction, and there are a few that implicitly hide their sociopathy Expand mmmm... okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 9:10 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: No one is explicitly wishing for death and destruction. Expand I'd like to see a FL landfall. It's going to end up like a cat 2 hybrid over like Delaware. Blah. If it isn't a NE strike, I'd rather an Andrew redux.. won't leave a a mark lets do this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 All those tracks taking it over or E of Bermuda are highly unlikely without the ridge seriously breaking down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 I'm correct. Not my problem if people live on barrier islands. Get out if the way....flooding is going to happen, regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 Barrier islands aren't meant to be lived on. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 9:13 PM, 78Blizzard said: All those tracks taking it over or E of Bermuda are highly unlikely without the ridge seriously breaking down.Keep in mind that in several days that ridge may look nothing like what is advertised now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 I think this will be a mid to late in the week event, - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 9:16 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Barrier islands aren't meant to be lived on. Period. Expand it's OK.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 9:17 PM, Bostonseminole said: it's OK.. Expand Wishing for another marvel of nature the ilk of Andrew meeting the shore is not an explicit wish for death....if the reader understands the definition of the term explicit. People drink and drive, too...lets ostracize everyone who profits from alcohol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 9:16 PM, Hazey said: Keep in mind that in several days that ridge may look nothing like what is advertised now. Expand True, but I wonder what kind of input those 12 or 13 model tracks had in taking it over or E of Bermuda? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 12z eps density Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 9:25 PM, OSUmetstud said: 12z eps densitySome extreme lefties skewing the mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 9:25 PM, OSUmetstud said: 12z eps density Expand Most of the tracks that are E of 70W take it more to the NNE rather than to the NE or ENE, so the further the 'cane gets west of 70W before turning toward the N, the more likely that a NC to NS potential hit takes place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Irma certainly is taking full advantage of its environment, even with some marginal water temperatures relative to the bath water it will be traversing in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 9:20 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Wishing for another marvel of nature the ilk of Andrew meeting the shore is not an explicit wish for death....if the reader understands the definition of the term explicit. People drink and drive, too...lets ostracize everyone who profits from alcohol. Expand horrible analogy, most deaths in Florida were in Homestead, last I looked not a barrier Island, you want to satisfy an unnatural obsession with damage and destruction as long as its not you. Marveling at nature hitting the shore and divorcing what it does to fellow Americans is brutally ignorant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 18z going to produce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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