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Tropical Season 2017

40/70 Benchmark

By 40/70 Benchmark,
in New England

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
  On 8/28/2017 at 11:47 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

I think that's a great tweet from BOX. Shows what will happen when we get a setup like that . Good stuff from them 

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Actually doesn't even approach showing what will happen, it just shows the areal extent of heavy rain in Texas compared to SNE.

With our terrain the damage would probably be far worse because of the moving water. Never mind that 40-50 inches of rain is many more magnitudes rarer in these parts. PWM's 500 year rainfall is about 20" vs. HOU at 40"

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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Posted
  On 8/28/2017 at 7:27 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

It is hard for the models to get a handle on a developing tropical cyclone as there is no definitive center of circulation.  Ok maybe not explode but become a good sized tropical hybrid system, although the wind shear is decreasing by about 10-20 knots in the last three hours, low level convergence and upper level divergence are increasing substantially as well.

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It's not hard to get a handle on a pseudo tropical system slingshotting out to sea under is.

Easy.

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted
  On 8/28/2017 at 11:22 PM, powderfreak said:

You know how we talk about 10+ inches of rain as being an incredibly wet month around here?  

Just imagine those same rainfall amounts now happening in 24 hours.  Now imagine it happening for 3 straight days.  

Thats insane.

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Hurricane Diane had 20" in 2 days in parts of New England

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
Posted
  On 8/29/2017 at 12:03 AM, OceanStWx said:

Actually doesn't even approach showing what will happen, it just shows the areal extent of heavy rain in Texas compared to SNE.

With our terrain the damage would probably be far worse because of the moving water. Never mind that 40-50 inches of rain is many more magnitudes rarer in these parts. PWM's 500 year rainfall is about 20" vs. HOU at 40"

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That's really why I was amazed.  Texas gets 40" events and that's something that will probably never happened here.  There's two totally different climates/environments.

 

  On 8/29/2017 at 12:59 AM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Hurricane Diane had 20" in 2 days in parts of New England

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Sure - 20".  Not 40".  We'd need two Diane's back to back just to equal one Texas event.  To me it's misleading for folks to think "if that happened here" vs. the areal coverage of the rainfall.  I think they mean the latter but folks are thinking the former.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
  On 8/29/2017 at 12:59 PM, dendrite said:

Pushing 50" in parts of TX. Jesus H. 

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Rich Thompson posted this comment about the rainfall on his Facebook page.  "Peak rain total in the automated rain gauge network in Harris Co. has been 49.20" as of 6:30am 8/29. If my count is correct, there were ~19 sites with 40+", and the rest of Harris Co. received 25-40" since Friday 8/26".  My own comment is wow!  Astounding totals after another very rainy night.  I think the 49.29 inches is the new record for rainfall with a tropical system in the U.S.

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
Posted

Here's two links that really show the areal coverage the flooding.  The first one shows the rivers in a major flooding stage:

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=hgx

 

This one is just amazing with all the highways with water on them across the region:

http://traffic.houstontranstar.org/layers/layers.aspx?cam=True

Houston20170829.png

HoustonMajorFlooding20170829.png

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

the full latitude trough construct and evolution like that is not likely to give y'all what you want out of that CV thing ...provided it actually wins the lottery of traversing the entire breadth of the Basin without first succumbing to the usual suspects in the first place. 

Supposing that happens, that trough would not bring that up here despite it's tasty looking appeal. Troughs that deep don't tend to align N-S in the steering levels; they are by planetary physics caused to have NE trajectories at mid levels N of the ~ VA Capes...  and anything turning N near/adjacent the Bahamas would move N for awhile but then turn near Hatteras and miss SE of LI ...close shave granted but it's gone. 

What you want is a "weakness" and/or cut off that meanders toward the OV...with some sort of down stream indirectly coupled ridge axis near SE of NS... That would tend to funnel the system N and the S vectors are not turning E at mid latitudes do to large scale wave mechanics like you see with full latitude deep trough anomalies.  And, there are other ways to pervert these designs to get a 'cane up this far N but that particular trough structure isn't really it. 

The best take away if one is an optimist is that having the structure this far in advance is probably better than having the best set up depicted at this sort of time lead. It's like that D9 blizzard on the Euro - ...you almost want to see the ingredients more than the modeled assault at that range, because at that range means too much can and will go wrong to permute the pattern negatively. 

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted
  On 8/29/2017 at 3:21 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

the full latitude trough construct and evolution like that is not likely to give y'all what you want out of that CV thing ...provided it actually wins the lottery of traversing the entire breadth of the Basin without first succumbing to the usual suspects in the first place. 

 

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TT,  The other takeaway is that with a strong troughs that are oriented N/S yank anything tropical quickly northward.  A weakness like you are taking about is more like a Hugo situation I think.  A northwest moving system would not be moving fast and would have more time to weaken.  It would have to come in SW of New England to really get us on the dirty side.  The N/S trough setup seems to bring us the big ones....  agree?

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
  On 8/29/2017 at 4:24 PM, wxeyeNH said:

TT,  The other takeaway is that with a strong troughs that are oriented N/S yank anything tropical quickly northward.  A weakness like you are taking about is more like a Hugo situation I think.  A northwest moving system would not be moving fast and would have more time to weaken.  It would have to come in SW of New England to really get us on the dirty side.  The N/S trough setup seems to bring us the big ones....  agree?

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You want the steering level to be oriented S to N ...

As I was attempting to describe (perhaps unsuccessfully) ... S- N oriented steering levels do not tend to evolve here during very deep latitudinally open wave mechanics.. The flow necessarily is instructed by planetary wave physics to begin turning more NE once you get N of the VA latitudes  when trough or full latitude like that.  

If the flow has a weakness and or cut off that's better, because those anomalies tend to have more S - N oriented vectors in the steering level this far N.  That...and as I said, some sort of blocking ridge also in the outer/lower marimtes. 

But that's all the idealized model .. there anomalies relative to everything - the context/purpose of that was "not getting giddy" over a chart set up that isn't necessarily describing something to get giddy over.. 

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
  On 8/29/2017 at 5:54 PM, Ginx snewx said:

50.52 in a Texas gauge network

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Checking cocorahs for just Harris County, most thru 7 this morning was a gauge 4 miles south of HOU-center, with 43.33", and still pouring, I suspect.  Couple other stations over 42", too.   Given all the counties getting drenched, it's not surprising that places outside Harris are getting even more.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
  On 8/29/2017 at 7:10 PM, tamarack said:

Checking cocorahs for just Harris County, most thru 7 this morning was a gauge 4 miles south of HOU-center, with 43.33", and still pouring, I suspect.  Couple other stations over 42", too.   Given all the counties getting drenched, it's not surprising that places outside Harris are getting even more.

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Set to 7 days under menu

https://www.harriscountyfws.org/#main

 

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