Chicago Storm Posted July 18, 2017 Share Posted July 18, 2017 I'm thread stating roll right now... Obviously more of southwestern portions of the sub-forum (IA/IL/IN/KY/MO). Probably days with widespread 100's in the card for some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 18, 2017 Share Posted July 18, 2017 Widespread excessive heat watches (and some warnings) in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 18, 2017 Share Posted July 18, 2017 NAM and GFS have 925 mb temps of 30-33C into central parts of Iowa on Thursday. NAM on the higher side and GFS on the lower side. Either one would support potential 100 degree temps with the NAM more solidly supportive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted July 18, 2017 Share Posted July 18, 2017 STL may hit 105 on Friday and Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted July 18, 2017 Share Posted July 18, 2017 any dew point forecast maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 18, 2017 Share Posted July 18, 2017 Here's what DMX had to say The current forecast dewpoints in the low to mid 70s is likely on the high side with the exception in the immediate vicinity and north of the boundary. The lack of widespread rainfall over a large portion of central and southern Iowa will minimize evapotranspiration from crops. Thursday and Friday in particular also have the potential to be good mixing days south of the boundary and very well could mix surface dew points into the 60s. If this mixing does occur and dew points drop, a few locations could reach 100 Thursday and Friday. A review of Des Moines 100 degree days from 1934-2013, only 16 of the 160 days had dew points of 70 or greater at the time of max temperature. Another common factor for 100 degree days at Des Moines is that they are typically preceded by a dry period which fits the current scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 18, 2017 Share Posted July 18, 2017 1 hour ago, beavis1729 said: STL may hit 105 on Friday and Saturday. I'd be surprised if they don't. They already made 103 in the last hot spell and it has been dry there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 18, 2017 Share Posted July 18, 2017 Obviously convection dependent, but Thursday will be a day to watch for areas north of the current heat headlines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 18, 2017 Share Posted July 18, 2017 GEFS shows the potential for 112 in eastern Nebraska. That would be brutal. This is a little bit in fantasy-land though. Neither Hastings NWS nor Omaha NWS talk about anything quite so record-breaking in their forecast discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted July 18, 2017 Share Posted July 18, 2017 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: Obviously convection dependent, but Thursday will be a day to watch for areas north of the current heat headlines. Wow look at the boundary in southern Wisconsin 104 in madison while its 79 in baraboo. If that happens I bet we will probably get storms of some sort. Heck their might be towns that are in the 100's in one part and 70's in another. Good thing ill be up north at by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 18, 2017 Share Posted July 18, 2017 4 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said: Wow look at the boundary in southern Wisconsin 104 in madison while its 79 in baraboo. If that happens I bet we will probably get storms of some sort. Heck their might be towns that are in the 100's in one part and 70's in another. Good thing ill be up north at by then. Just so there's no confusion, that is a heat index map, not actual temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted July 18, 2017 Share Posted July 18, 2017 glad we don't live there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 18, 2017 Share Posted July 18, 2017 Dew up to 75. Feels pretty thick out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 18, 2017 Author Share Posted July 18, 2017 Topped out at 89 at ORD and 90 at MDW today.Might be the warmest of this stretch around here, unless Thursday can produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 18, 2017 Share Posted July 18, 2017 10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Topped out at 89 at ORD and 90 at MDW today. Might be the warmest of this stretch around here, unless Thursday can produce. I'm actually feeling semi-good about Thursday's potential, but we have all seen how things can go wrong. At this point, the timing may be such to allow for a fairly long window before any redevelopment. If that's the case, it will come down to how potent any leftover cold pool/outflow is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted July 18, 2017 Share Posted July 18, 2017 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Just so there's no confusion, that is a heat index map, not actual temperatures. Ohhh. Still pretty extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThisIsNotSparta Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 Aww, so close. Only upper twenties C before cooler temperatures. This is becoming painfully repetitive. Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 5 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: Topped out at 89 at ORD and 90 at MDW today.Might be the warmest of this stretch around here, unless Thursday can produce. Got 89'd here, as well, despite temps overperforming a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 9,414,140 people in Excessive Heat Warnings in the central U.S. Magenta area in MO/IA/KS/IL/NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 100 in St. Louis. Their streak begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 I am assuming that the GFS overdoes dews, with it showing widespread 80° over Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana Thurs-Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, IWXwx said: I am assuming that the GFS overdoes dews, with it showing widespread 80° over Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana Thurs-Sat. You typically need a very moist airmass with light winds/little mixing to get it widespread like that. If it's exceptionally moist aloft, then perhaps you could get away with a little more mixing and still maintain 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 90*F at DTW (intra-hour due to convection in the vicinity) and 92*F at DET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 22 minutes ago, Powerball said: 90*F at DTW (intra-hour due to convection in the vicinity) and 92*F at DET. Maxed at 91 about 40 mins ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 Dew has been as high as 77 this afternoon. 76 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 90/77/105 here. Definitely feels soupy out there, hate that feeling of stepping outside and your shirt damn near instantly clings to your back. Picked up 0.63” of much needed rainfall this morning, just added to the tropical feel outside. Only Midwest folks know what I’m saying when I say, “you can tell we are getting later in summer, when you can start to smell the corn in the air” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 NAM has been really bullish on temps in Iowa tomorrow. This is southeast of Des Moines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 17 minutes ago, Hoosier said: NAM has been really bullish on temps in Iowa tomorrow. This is southeast of Des Moines. Impressive. Could be a pretty interesting contrast between a very hot/well mixed BL like above, and very high dews with lower temps just to the north. These storms tonight will likely lay out a boundary that pools dews quite nicely tomorrow just northeast of the hottest temps. MLI going with a peak heat index of 107 for them tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 HRRR has 100 in Moline, and it looks like some dewpoint pooling in the mid-upper 70s in much of northern Illinois. Obviously will have to see about morning convection and extent of recovery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 Looks like ORD should have enough time to make it to 90 before winds shift off the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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