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July 18-27th Severe Weather


Chicago Storm

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7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This line is quite unexpected (other than the HRRR hinting at something I guess). Severe thunderstorm watch out now as far east as Chicago.

Yeah, and it was just that, a hint. Just goes to show how explosive the environment can be and how clueless the models can be in these ring of fire setups.

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7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

It'll be interesting to see how quickly this line tries to weaken as it heads toward Chicago/lakefront areas.  Airmass is more stable there as winds are off the lake.

What may also happen is that the worst of the line dives more SE into Central Indiana, where the better reservoir of instability lies. 

It has pretty good mesoscale forcing to sustain it, so I wouldn't be surprised if it lasts all of the way to Indianapolis (if it does turn right). 

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Already a Special Marine Warning from the NWS in Chicago for this MCS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
  NEARSHORE WATERS FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY...
  OPEN WATERS FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY OUT TO MID
  LAKE...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 805 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM 53 NM WEST OF PLEASANT PRAIRIE TO 65 NM WEST OF
  WINTHROP HARBOR TO 86 NM SOUTHWEST OF KENOSHA...MOVING EAST AT 50
  KNOTS.

  HAZARD...WIND GUSTS TO NEARLY 50 KNOTS. 

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Just now, Jim Martin said:

Slight risk maintained for the remainder of tonight. New round of elevated severe thunderstorms overnight with a large hail risk.

Lol that is so bad, there is a MCS producing several severe reports and have for hours and they don't up the risk in front of it.

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Now would be a good time for one of those mesoscale updates from LOT to get their thoughts on short term trends, etc.

Although CAPE dwindles with eastward extent, sometimes well-organized systems like this hang on longer into a more hostile environment than what you would think.

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3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Gonna be a close call here.  After looking at it more closely you can see some strong meso-voritices mixed in that line.  They have a tendency to pull more to the left, which may keep the band of storms from diving as much southeast as you might expect.  Unless there's further development along the southern end of the line I think it may miss us to the north.  Rockford looks to get smoked as per usual.

:pepsi:

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Thanks LOT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
832 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
831 PM CDT

Well-defined quasi-linear bow echo moving east-southeast along
the WI/IL state line. Have had reports of wind damage with this and
a gust to 58 mph observed at Rockford Airport. Radar signatures
indicate the severe winds will continue for at least the next
hour and at least scattered severe winds into far northeast
Illinois/Chicago metro given its persistence.

Quasi-linear nature has provided for a couple areas of
concentrated inflow, most notably moving east of Rockford now to
just south of Belvidere. Given the low-level shear orientation and
the presence of an old boundary in that vicinity, it is an area
that favors mesovortexgenesis for a possible tornado. This will
continue to be an area that will have to be watched, for at least
enhanced wind damage as it moves near I-90 into southern McHenry
County and northern Kane County.

MTF

&&
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btw, while everyone's looking to the east where Chicago, Kenosha, and Racine are about to get hit, you might want to look back here in the 612/651/952. A line of thunderstorms with hail has developed from that upper plume from Olivia MN to Chanhassen and the south twin cities metro to Winona. not necessarily the best wind producers from what I can tell, but the hail sigs are there.

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