SchaumburgStormer Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Wisconsin offices sort of blanket tornado warning the line. Yeah, I guess a shot in the dark to cover those brief spin ups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 The way this is looking, Chicago is going to get slammed before the night is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 28 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Line is headed right at me, see how it holds together This line is quite unexpected (other than the HRRR hinting at something I guess). Severe thunderstorm watch out now as far east as Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 It'll be interesting to see how quickly this line tries to weaken as it heads toward Chicago/lakefront areas. Airmass is more stable there as winds are off the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 7 minutes ago, Hoosier said: This line is quite unexpected (other than the HRRR hinting at something I guess). Severe thunderstorm watch out now as far east as Chicago. Yeah, and it was just that, a hint. Just goes to show how explosive the environment can be and how clueless the models can be in these ring of fire setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 7 minutes ago, Hoosier said: It'll be interesting to see how quickly this line tries to weaken as it heads toward Chicago/lakefront areas. Airmass is more stable there as winds are off the lake. What may also happen is that the worst of the line dives more SE into Central Indiana, where the better reservoir of instability lies. It has pretty good mesoscale forcing to sustain it, so I wouldn't be surprised if it lasts all of the way to Indianapolis (if it does turn right). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: It'll be interesting to see how quickly this line tries to weaken as it heads toward Chicago/lakefront areas. Airmass is more stable there as winds are off the lake. Lake breeze made it all the way to 39 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 20, 2017 Author Share Posted July 20, 2017 Quality derecho... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 Possible little spinup NE of Lena, Il Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 Looking at dark skies to the north, waving at it as it passes by while sweat drips off my face lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 The GR2AE look at this Mesoscale Convective System. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 Already a Special Marine Warning from the NWS in Chicago for this MCS... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR... NEARSHORE WATERS FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY... OPEN WATERS FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY OUT TO MID LAKE... * UNTIL 830 PM CDT * AT 805 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 53 NM WEST OF PLEASANT PRAIRIE TO 65 NM WEST OF WINTHROP HARBOR TO 86 NM SOUTHWEST OF KENOSHA...MOVING EAST AT 50 KNOTS. HAZARD...WIND GUSTS TO NEARLY 50 KNOTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 21 minutes ago, Jim Martin said: The GR2AE look at this Mesoscale Convective System. Awful path for NE IL counties just starting to dry out from the flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 Slight risk maintained for the remainder of tonight. New round of elevated severe thunderstorms overnight with a large hail risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 Just now, Jim Martin said: Slight risk maintained for the remainder of tonight. New round of elevated severe thunderstorms overnight with a large hail risk. Lol that is so bad, there is a MCS producing several severe reports and have for hours and they don't up the risk in front of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 So this just happened in the last few moments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 20, 2017 Author Share Posted July 20, 2017 Lol that is so bad, there is a MCS producing several severe reports and have for hours and they don't up the risk in front of it.Guidance has always killed it before reaching IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 Now would be a good time for one of those mesoscale updates from LOT to get their thoughts on short term trends, etc. Although CAPE dwindles with eastward extent, sometimes well-organized systems like this hang on longer into a more hostile environment than what you would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 Just now, Chicago Storm said: Guidance has always killed it before reaching IN. Even then, carry over the enh to Chicago especially since it was already out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 3 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Gonna be a close call here. After looking at it more closely you can see some strong meso-voritices mixed in that line. They have a tendency to pull more to the left, which may keep the band of storms from diving as much southeast as you might expect. Unless there's further development along the southern end of the line I think it may miss us to the north. Rockford looks to get smoked as per usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 20, 2017 Author Share Posted July 20, 2017 I'm in DKB for this one. Should have a solid hit soon here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 58 mph gust at RFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 Portion of the line down near amboy is one to keep an eye on too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 I have always thought that well-formed bow echoes look kind of like a arch-shaped spaceship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 HRRR is too slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Portion of the line down near amboy is one to keep an eye on too It got a severe warning now as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 Thanks LOT Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 832 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... 831 PM CDT Well-defined quasi-linear bow echo moving east-southeast along the WI/IL state line. Have had reports of wind damage with this and a gust to 58 mph observed at Rockford Airport. Radar signatures indicate the severe winds will continue for at least the next hour and at least scattered severe winds into far northeast Illinois/Chicago metro given its persistence. Quasi-linear nature has provided for a couple areas of concentrated inflow, most notably moving east of Rockford now to just south of Belvidere. Given the low-level shear orientation and the presence of an old boundary in that vicinity, it is an area that favors mesovortexgenesis for a possible tornado. This will continue to be an area that will have to be watched, for at least enhanced wind damage as it moves near I-90 into southern McHenry County and northern Kane County. MTF && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 Huge warning out, from almost I-80 to the Wisconsin line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 btw, while everyone's looking to the east where Chicago, Kenosha, and Racine are about to get hit, you might want to look back here in the 612/651/952. A line of thunderstorms with hail has developed from that upper plume from Olivia MN to Chanhassen and the south twin cities metro to Winona. not necessarily the best wind producers from what I can tell, but the hail sigs are there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 Solid storm. Prolific lightning, and a 54mph gust via handheld before I tucked tail back into the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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