Chicago Storm Posted July 18, 2017 Share Posted July 18, 2017 Looks like daily chances of severe across portions of the sub-forum, on the north side to the heat dome. End date obviously TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 18, 2017 Share Posted July 18, 2017 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Looks like daily chances of severe across portions of the sub-forum, on the north side to the heat dome. End date obviously TBD. Noticed that too. GFS hinting at triple digit heat underneath that heat dome... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 18, 2017 Share Posted July 18, 2017 And flooding concerns, and possibly in a similar area as last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 18, 2017 Share Posted July 18, 2017 00z NAM really targets the area of southern WI/northern IL that was hit hard recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted July 18, 2017 Share Posted July 18, 2017 15 hours ago, Hoosier said: 00z NAM really targets the area of southern WI/northern IL that was hit hard recently. This ring of fire setup looks like it could produce multiple rounds with heavy rainfall once again. This area can't handle that kind of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 18, 2017 Share Posted July 18, 2017 6 hours ago, tuanis said: This ring of fire setup looks like it could produce multiple rounds with heavy rainfall once again. This area can't handle that kind of rain. I'm glad the Rock River flows north/south through far northern IL/southern WI. That area always seems to get dumped on from these type of events. If the river flowed east/west through a large portion of that area we'd be in some serious ****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 18, 2017 Share Posted July 18, 2017 On a technical basis, how does this compare to the upper Midwest flooding event of June 2008? Just going off memory, I seem to recall at its worst that was a lot more widespread, seemingly everywhere that had a river or stream was flooded. So far this event's worst impacts have been more localized but have been severe where they have happened (such as Burlington, WI). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 40 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: On a technical basis, how does this compare to the upper Midwest flooding event of June 2008? Just going off memory, I seem to recall at its worst that was a lot more widespread, seemingly everywhere that had a river or stream was flooded. So far this event's worst impacts have been more localized but have been severe where they have happened (such as Burlington, WI). 2008 was insane. The Cedar River had never exceeded 20 ft in Cedar Rapids' history. Even during the great flood spring/summer of 1993, it only managed to hit 19.2 ft. On June 13th, 2008, the river crested at 31 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 Very nice looking shelf cloud rolling in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 Thursday night could be interesting for portions of the area if the 18Z GFS and NAM are correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 34 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Very nice looking shelf cloud rolling in now. Only picked up 0.03" lol. Storm crapped the bed on the back doorstep. Wasn't expecting anything today anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 Tonight's shelf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 While not yet severe, ILX currently has their Doppler down for maintenance until either later tomorrow or Thursday, and this comes out: Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Lincoln IL 850 PM CDT TUE JUL 18 2017 ILZ036-040-041-190215- Mason-Schuyler-Fulton- 850 PM CDT TUE JUL 18 2017 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL FULTON...EASTERN SCHUYLER AND CENTRAL MASON COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM CDT... At 849 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Havana, moving east at 40 mph. Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Havana, Bath, Easton, Kilbourne, Topeka, Bluff City, Chatauqua Park, Marbletown and Poplar City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 Quick look at the 0z NAM. Looking very interesting for Northwest Ohio Thursday afternoon and night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 06Z NAM goes all out for tomorrow night near Detroit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 1 hour ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 06Z NAM goes all out for tomorrow night near Detroit Problem is that storms won't likely fire until they're in northern Indiana and Ohio due to a worked over atmosphere and better dynamics (instability) south of the state. I think its it's safe to say there's a trend here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 2 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 06Z NAM goes all out for tomorrow night near Detroit Impressive environment, but not sure it's realistic given convective feedback/contamination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 I'll be back in Detroit starting tonight for a week. Looking forward to some storms. SPC day 2 moves slight back over S MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 The latest run of the HRRR shows Cyclone cashing in this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 15 minutes ago, IWXwx said: The latest run of the HRRR shows Cyclone cashing in this evening Isn't that cute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 6 hours ago, Harry Perry said: Problem is that storms won't likely fire until they're in northern Indiana and Ohio due to a worked over atmosphere and better dynamics (instability) south of the state. I think its it's safe to say there's a trend here lol 0-6 km shear should be reasonably impressive for July. If storms form in Ohio or Indiana, they could get severe quickly. the 12z NAM has 41 kt of shear at Cleveland, 35 kt in northern Indiana tomorrow. For 0-3km SRH, there are some big differences between the 12z NAM and 18z NAM for Ohio. So maybe worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 2 hours ago, IWXwx said: The latest run of the HRRR shows Cyclone cashing in this evening 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Isn't that cute Lol. Yeah I'm hoping she dives more south as it moves east. HRRR runs are encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 Gonna be a close call here. After looking at it more closely you can see some strong meso-voritices mixed in that line. They have a tendency to pull more to the left, which may keep the band of storms from diving as much southeast as you might expect. Unless there's further development along the southern end of the line I think it may miss us to the north. Rockford looks to get smoked as per usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 9 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Gonna be a close call here. After looking at it more closely you can see some strong meso-voritices mixed in that line. They have a tendency to pull more to the left, which may keep the band of storms from diving as much southeast as you might expect. Unless there's further development along the southern end of the line I think it may miss us to the north. Rockford looks to get smoked as per usual. I understand your thoughts with storm motion. Still think the southern part will right turn enough so that you can at least wave at it as it passes, or just drive a few miles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 7 minutes ago, IWXwx said: I understand your thoughts with storm motion. Still think the southern part will right turn enough so that you can at least wave at it as it passes, or just drive a few miles north. Just in the last 10 mins or so some new storms have popped further south near Iowa Falls. So there's still hope lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 9 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 06Z NAM goes all out for tomorrow night near Detroit lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 gonna be super close here with that MCS, hopefully those showers to the SW develop or the actual MCS is able to backbuild westward. Otherwise looks like a narrow miss to the east if neither of the aforementioned scenarios occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 Line is headed right at me, see how it holds together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 This is a well-formed bow echo with some 70-80 kt winds detected in the clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 Wisconsin offices sort of blanket tornado warning the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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