NJwx85 Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Looks like all systems go, SPC is expected to issue a watch within the next few hours. It's been awhile since we've had all the players on the field at the same time with a good source of lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Bulk Richardson number is at 80. A good number for supercell development. We'll have to keep an eye out later for some discrete cells. SBLI is at -7,not bad. edit. BRN now at 100 over the Hudson valley area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Bumped up to slight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 13, 2017 Author Share Posted July 13, 2017 16 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Bumped up to slight We've been in a slight risk since the early morning update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 We've been in a slight risk since the early morning update.Oh when I looked earlier it was marginalSent from my VS986 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 13, 2017 Author Share Posted July 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Oh when I looked earlier it was marginal Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk Here was the 13z update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Come now. We don't have enough shear to support supercells. The hodographs look like a pile of thread. Organization is going to be in the form of short lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 13, 2017 Author Share Posted July 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: Come now. We don't have enough shear to support supercells. The hodographs look like a pile of thread. Organization is going to be in the form of short lines. We have plenty of shear and it will continue to increase as the MCV moves closer. Also the entire region is >2500 j/kg of SBCAPE. Mid-level lapse rates are marginal but enough to get the job done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 13, 2017 Author Share Posted July 13, 2017 Upton has hoisted Flash Flood Watches for 3" or more of rain. Flood Watch National Weather Service New York NY 111 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017 ...Flooding Possible Today and Tonight... CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179- 141000- /O.NEW.KOKX.FF.A.0002.170713T1800Z-170714T1000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex- Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven- Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic- Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen- Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange- Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester- New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)- Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk- Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens- Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 111 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for southern Connecticut, the Lower Hudson Valley, New York City, Long Island, and northeastern New Jersey. * Through late tonight. * Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon, and increase in coverage an intensity into this evening. Additional rounds of heavy rain producing thunderstorms are again possible tonight. Three inches or more of rain will be possible where the heaviest and most persistent storms occur, leading to flash flooding. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should flash flood warnings be issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 cell north of me just went severe-can hear the thunder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued: Quote SEL2 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 412 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 155 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Western Massachusetts Northern New Jersey Southern New York Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will spread across the lower Hudson Valley into southern New England, including adjacent Long Island and portions of northern New Jersey this afternoon/evening. Damaging winds are the primary severe risk. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles either side of a line from 40 miles west of Poughkeepsie NY to 25 miles northeast of Groton CT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Darrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Be nice if we could redo July 23, 2010. No event has given Manhattan a tornado warning since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 1 minute ago, TriPol said: Be nice if we could redo July 23, 2010. No event has given Manhattan a tornado warning since. Be nice if we could redo that entire summer, it was awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 13, 2017 Author Share Posted July 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Paragon said: Be nice if we could redo that entire summer, it was awesome! Wish we could redo the entire period from January 2010 through November 1, 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 13, 2017 Author Share Posted July 13, 2017 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 412 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 155 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Western Massachusetts Northern New Jersey Southern New York Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will spread across the lower Hudson Valley into southern New England, including adjacent Long Island and portions of northern New Jersey this afternoon/evening. Damaging winds are the primary severe risk. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles either side of a line from 40 miles west of Poughkeepsie NY to 25 miles northeast of Groton CT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Wish we could redo the entire period from January 2010 through November 1, 2012. skip the winter of 11-12....that was the winter of "the cold's right around the corner"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Wish we could redo the entire period from January 2010 through November 1, 2012. Yeah, Summer 2011 was something to behold too. First we had the record heatwave in July 2011 (during the wx conference no less) and then we had the record rains in August 2011, first the big weekend rains early in the month and then Irene later in the month. Best of all worlds kind of summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: skip the winter of 11-12....that was the winter of "the cold's right around the corner"! It was all downhill after Octoblizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Paragon said: Yeah, Summer 2011 was something to behold too. First we had the record heatwave in July 2011 (during the wx conference no less) and then we had the record rains in August 2011, first the big weekend rains early in the month and then Irene later in the month. Best of all worlds kind of summer. Is there something about wet summers and hurricanes/tropical storms hitting our area? Something to do with the trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, TriPol said: Is there something about wet summers and hurricanes/tropical storms hitting our area? Something to do with the trough? Some of it is a matter of chance, but when you have a summer with a trough nearby and positioned properly and at the right angle, you definitely increase your chances. What we don't want is a summer like 1995, when we get unrelenting heat and humidity and widespread forest fires with the trough positioned in such a way that tropical systems get steered offshore. I remember that was the first hyperactive tropical season we had in a long time and it was really frustrating to see every system make a right turn before getting to 70W. Especially with the big August drought and wildfires all over NJ and Long Island (you could even see smoke plumes on satellite!) Cat 4 Felix was the most frustrating system, after teasing us for days, it stalled and then veered right about 200 miles from the NC coast- that was a sign of things to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, Paragon said: Some of it is a matter of chance, but when you have a summer with a trough nearby and positioned properly and at the right angle, you definitely increase your chances. What we don't want is a summer like 1995, when we get unrelenting heat and humidity and widespread forest fires with the trough positioned in such a way that tropical systems get steered offshore. I remember that was the first hyperactive tropical season we had in a long time and it was really frustrating to see every system make a right turn before getting to 70W. Especially with the big August drought and wildfires all over NJ and Long Island (you could even see smoke plumes on satellite!) Cat 4 Felix was the most frustrating system, after teasing us for days, it stalled and then veered right about 200 miles from the NC coast- that was a sign of things to come. you want the trough in the TN valley or OH valley-that give us a steering current around the edge of the Bermuda High. A big ridge over the East is bad as we saw in 1995. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: you want the trough in the TN valley or OH valley-that give us a steering current around the edge of the Bermuda High. A big ridge over the East is bad as we saw in 1995. Yeah, big ridges over the East usually mean a great season for the Gulf Coast and Florida (which is what happened that year.) When you have a big ridge hot summer kind of pattern, you want the storm to come later in the season when the ridge relaxes- like what happened with the 1944 Hurricane and Bob in 1991. Felix was a July storm when the ridge is at its peak and we had an unusual August with the ridge being so strong that we didn't get any measurable rainfall until the last day of the month (we were on our way to breaking the record for driest month when a renegade band of showers coming from the north ruined it on the night of Aug 31, when you have a month like that, it's disappointing that you don't set the record, the rain could have waited for September 1st- it was just a few hours away!) But anyway, usually in hot summers with big ridges, as long as the storm comes in late August or after that, you're okay, because the ridge is relaxing at that point, allowing an alley for the storm to approach the east coast. Even in 1995 there was a system that hit the Carolinas, but it came late in the season, after mid September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Well that was intense. The t-storm that moved through here did so quickly but had lots of lightning, some pretty good rolling thunder and a bucketload of rain in about 10 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 ...and it looks like another cell incoming sometime in the next few minutes. Gonna go out and soap up the car now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, gravitylover said: ...and it looks like another cell incoming sometime in the next few minutes. Gonna go out and soap up the car now Cell just off to my west. Thunder in the distance and wind has picked up. Should get a nice soaking in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Pouring again This one ramped up from a few drops to coming down in sideways buckets in a big hurry. Strong wind, lots of thunder and it's dark like night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Nice little storm. Gust up to 40mph with torrential rain. Little to no thunder and no lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Quick ~.5" shots with lots of wind. It's getting lighter outside again. Waiting for round three. Interesting Florida like afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Quick ~.5" shots with lots of wind. It's getting lighter outside again. Waiting for round three. Interesting Florida like afternoon. 0.35" here in a few minutes. Sun is back out now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 13, 2017 Author Share Posted July 13, 2017 Sitting in a screw zone here at the moment in NE NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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