griteater Posted September 20, 2017 Author Share Posted September 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, Met1985 said: I actually prefer this outlook unlike a hard number outlook. There is just a huge percentage to be completely wrong when listing hard numbers. I think the prospect of snow outside the mountains is a good way to go. Also Grit when will we get your outlook this season? By Halloween, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 I just expect above normal temps and no snow, every winter, then I only get dissapointed when it snows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 On 9/14/2017 at 9:23 PM, YetAnotherRDUGuy said: And somehow it has parts of North and South Dakota as mild/wet. I can't imagine it raining in North Dakota in January. I was looking through historical weather data, and Bismarck seems to get January rain once or twice a decade on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 I hit double digits and had snowcover for a week. I had no idea last year was so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 21, 2017 Author Share Posted September 21, 2017 Here's the final tally for September... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 21, 2017 Author Share Posted September 21, 2017 FYI, I made a post about October snow cover on the main page... https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50278-and-we-begin/?do=findComment&comment=4631774 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 CPC just updated their seasonal outlook. As noted on the image, you would have to think they're assuming more app/lake lows this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 1 hour ago, FallsLake said: CPC just updated their seasonal outlook. As noted on the image, you would have to think they're assuming more app/lake lows this winter. That is really not a bad look. I actually welcome the Nina too cool things down a bit. The extreme Nino was horrible for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 52 minutes ago, FallsLake said: CPC just updated their seasonal outlook. As noted on the image, you would have to think they're assuming more app/lake lows this winter. Awesome! Lake lows are our friend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 2 hours ago, griteater said: FYI, I made a post about October snow cover on the main page... https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50278-and-we-begin/?do=findComment&comment=4631774 Dang great post in the SAI thread. Great info and graphs. I am glad you are a SE poster man really great stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 SAI tends to work better in conjunction with pressure patterns. Snow advance should include AN pressure in Siberia over BN press in China. Such a pattern is blocky in Asia. Snow advance with BN press in Siberia and AN press in China is just a fast active early season jet stream, but mild. Keep it simple. Look for a blocky pattern in Asia and hope North America gets blocky a few weeks later. Conversely slow snow advance may not be a deal killer if the pressure patterns are set up right. Maybe just dry in Siberia? A slow advance with zonal Asian jet stream would of course be discouraging to snow lovers. Still, it is just one tool. I post in SE since we need blocking more than most regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 On Thursday, September 21, 2017 at 1:31 PM, mackerel_sky said: Awesome! Lake lows are our friend! Cpc is just going standard nina climo. Northern stream winter with predominant track pac nw>northern rockies>upper mw. Probabilistic forecasting that's probalistically right. This is one of those years where both our regions will be rooting for the same thing...and since we haven't seen a big red ball of AN heights planted over Greenland or ne canada since basically January of 2011, the patented and highly technical WD (we're due) Index is raging in our favor. Time scales of the WDI are tricky though because blocking may not show up until next year or the year after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 30, 2017 Author Share Posted September 30, 2017 ^ Good to see you in here Bob C Here are snow anomaly maps (% of normal snow) for each decade since the 1950's. Begins with the map for the 2010's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 30, 2017 Share Posted September 30, 2017 14 hours ago, griteater said: ^ Good to see you in here Bob C Here are snow anomaly maps (% of normal snow) for each decade since the 1950's. Begins with the map for the 2010's... Pretty awesome maps. You can see the impacts of huge storms like 1973, 1993, Carolina crusher, the Christmas 1989 storm in SC, mpacting the means over the course of a decade. Very cool and thank you for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted September 30, 2017 Share Posted September 30, 2017 Man, the 50's looked brutal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 One thing I got out of those. Someone at the Midwestern Regional Climate Center really doesn't like New Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 2, 2017 Author Share Posted October 2, 2017 Early snow in Steamboat, CO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted October 2, 2017 Share Posted October 2, 2017 On 9/29/2017 at 11:24 PM, griteater said: ^ Good to see you in here Bob C Here are snow anomaly maps (% of normal snow) for each decade since the 1950's. Begins with the map for the 2010's... Really cool info! Thanks for posting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 3, 2017 Author Share Posted October 3, 2017 Well written article about U.S. temperature trends using "Optimum Climate Normals". Article states, "you can see that for temperature, the trends during the summer are much larger, and during spring and fall are more expansive, than the trends during the winter. In fact, much of the country has been near the 1981-2010 average during the winter months of the past 15 years" - https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/another-non-enso-thing-affects-seasonal-forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 Accuweather does not agree with JB for the SE https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2017-2018-us-winter-forecast/70002894 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, No snow for you said: Accuweather does not agree with JB for the SE https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2017-2018-us-winter-forecast/70002894 I thought JB was warm for the SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 Wow! Accuweather has us getting rain in the Winter?! Gee, that's more rare than getting snow. :sarcasm: Seriously, why didn't they just put "wet" instead of rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 1 hour ago, Cold Rain said: I thought JB was warm for the SE? Warm and dry. I'll take moisture and pray for the wedge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 IRI is cooler this month than last. CFS is about the same, keeping us around normal in January and February, but warm October through December. It's gonna be a rough ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 The following comments are from this morning's long term forecast discussion from KGSP. Hope it doesn't become a recurring theme this winter: Stubborn upper ridging in place over the Southeast will force the low/front to pass to our north, not really making it through our area, with highs by midweek a handful of degrees above seasonal normals. May see some reprieve at the end of the period with a transitory damming event, but confidence low on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Deja vu of last winter. As they say...writing is on the wall for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 3 out of 5 of the warmest octobers produced above average snow for the next winter, plus the coldest January of all time at CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 The October we are about to beat is 2007, which did not precede a good winter at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 Well I swore at the begining of last winter things couldn't get any worse than the previous. Lo and behold outside of a 5 to 7 day stretch in early January for mby, I had to stomach the unthinkable along with everyone else in the SE. As we get ready to kickoff a new season I have 0 expectations as of right now. A possible low end moderate LA Nina is a recipe for disaster for most of us on this board 9 times out of 10. However I know from history for mby (area) we never get shutout and usually we manage to have atleast one 6 to 10 day stretch of great winter weather whIle in the throws of a cappy winter pattern. Example would be early Jan 2017 and late Jan 2000. Maybe we'll catch a break and get the deck shuffled in a way to help us save face this season. Jury is still out till we progress through November. So fingers crossed but Id cautioned strongly against having alot of optimism right now. If I could put my finger on 1 tc for 90 days, it would be to spike the pna and lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 12 hours ago, WidreMann said: The October we are about to beat is 2007, which did not precede a good winter at all. I would take my chances with a 2007-2008 repeat. We got a 1 week window of measurable snow in mid January 2008. Better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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