LithiaWx Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 I'm ready for some gulf lows and northwest flows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 15, 2017 Author Share Posted September 15, 2017 Latest IRI Model run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 4 hours ago, griteater said: Latest IRI Model run Hell, I'll take that look any day! Cold air near enough to give us some possible CAD events and it's not a total US torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 11 hours ago, FallsLake said: I miss the days he was a big part of this forum. Really good met.. +100000000000000000000000000000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 On 9/14/2017 at 8:35 AM, BIG FROSTY said: JB has updated his winter forecast!! And again it's Cold and Snowy, in The northern Rockies and Plains!!! The coldest air should be centered in the northern Rockies and Plains, with warm in the Southeast. I am confident about warmth in the Southeast. On a positive note (If you're a golfer) is it looks to be good wet/golfing weather in the SE.............................. I like JB but his really long range forecast back in 2011-2012 did if for me. He really believed that winters would start getting colder and colder each year starting in 2013 & 2014 and was even hinting at a mini ice age scenario for a extended period of time during the winter months???? Needless to say it has been quite the opposite of what he was thinking so, if he is saying warm this winter then I am looking forward to a "Cold & Snowy" winter for everyone in the SE!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 2 hours ago, NorthernUpstateSC said: I like JB but his really long range forecast back in 2011-2012 did if for me. He really believed that winters would start getting colder and colder each year starting in 2013 & 2014 and was even hinting at a mini ice age scenario for a extended period of time during the winter months???? Needless to say it has been quite the opposite of what he was thinking so, if he is saying warm this winter then I am looking forward to a "Cold & Snowy" winter for everyone in the SE!! That's a good bet. Encouraging for me to see him go warm here. JB is an awful media attention whore. I truly believe his forecasts are frequently hyped intentionally to get social media attention and traffic to his paid site. He was once upon a time a great met but he's certainly sold out to the dollar imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: That's a good bet. Encouraging for me to see him go warm here. JB is an awful media attention whore. I truly believe his forecasts are frequently hyped intentionally to get social media attention and traffic to his paid site. He was once upon a time a great met but he's certainly sold out to the dollar imo. Totally agree when he left accu-weather and went out on his own that's when the almighty $$$$$$ blinded him..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Not that it's worth following the CFS daily gyrations, but it's been trending back again to a cold January and February for the northern tier reaching down into this area (where we'd be about normal). It's similar to the IRI, except it has less warmth in NE Canada. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 On 9/14/2017 at 0:16 PM, yotaman said: Yep, I remember that December. Had a coastal blizzard in eastern NC and super cold. Anyone remember the winters of 2004 and 2005? Late January Ice Storms were a thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 On 9/16/2017 at 0:00 AM, WidreMann said: Not that it's worth following the CFS daily gyrations, but it's been trending back again to a cold January and February for the northern tier reaching down into this area (where we'd be about normal). It's similar to the IRI, except it has less warmth in NE Canada. Fingers crossed. This is an example of a good post with information in an appropriate thread. Is there any way we can dispense with the nearly incessant bashing of JB? I get that some don't think he's very good but my goodness, enough is enough. Stop reading his stuff and complaining about it here. Thank you and now back to our look ahead please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Jamstec Winter forecast- WARM Southeast and most all Eastern Seaboard #ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 1 hour ago, BIG FROSTY said: Jamstec Winter forecast- WARM Southeast and most all Eastern Seaboard #ugly Sure hope it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 1 hour ago, BIG FROSTY said: Jamstec Winter forecast- WARM Southeast and most all Eastern Seaboard #ugly All the cold forecasts are always wrong, so here's to hoping that works the same on warm forecasts!? I have to think JB going warm, is going to payoff big for us in the SE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 All the cold forecasts are always wrong, so here's to hoping that works the same on warm forecasts!? I have to think JB going warm, is going to payoff big for us in the SE!That's what I am hoping also!!Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 I can buy these forecast. We straight up LA Nina, just look at the tropics. Notice how the east coast trough is no where to be found all of the sudden and the West coast ridge has been replaced with west coast trough. Had a great summer minus few weeks in July thanks to the EC trough. Think we are seeing a big pattern change. Had a good ride/ streak going but the deck is re shuffling and it's Fall equinox.. aka time to an te up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Question...is do we get the dreaded AK low this winter...we have had plenty of snowy nina's, though luck goes a long as it always does in any enso. The displaced aleutian ridge would make for an early trip to Home Depot for pre-emergent...again. I would prefer the bottom image...but...a warm winter isn't the worst either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: Question...is do we get the dreaded AK low this winter...we have had plenty of snowy nina's, though luck goes a long as it always does in any enso. The displaced aleutian ridge would make for an early trip to Home Depot for pre-emergent...again. I would prefer the bottom image...but...a warm winter isn't the worst either. That's why thes long range forecasts are so bad! You can have a raging Nino , but it acts like a Niña , or we have the perfect set up with weak Nino , but have tha Alaska low screws the whole pattern! Maybe if we have the perfect warm set up , something will screw it up and we freeze our asses off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Honestly, as long as we don't have a record-breaking, wall-to-wall warm winter like last year, I'm okay. Just one snow event would be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 I'm with WidreMann; we just need a winter that can produce winter storms. The overall la nina pattern should give folks along the northern tear of the US colder temps. All we have to do is pull a couple of CAD cards out of our hat and we should have sufficient cold air to do some business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 There has been some good winter storms during la nina years: http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter_wx/database.php?location_county=&StartYear=1969&StartMonth=01&StartDay=1&EndYear=2015&EndMonth=08&EndDay=1&Submit=Submit&page=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 It would be great if winter is as exciting and busy as the hurricane season has been the last month. I don't think the long range forecasts matter at all, though. We've had winters that we were supposed to have record breaking snowfall based on the same setup in years past and didn't even get to average. We've had crappy winters where we had one storm that gave us the biggest snowfall ever. And I don't think all the indices and what happened in the past matter anymore. Things have changed, and it's pretty much just a shot in the dark when it comes to winter storms around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 I think the Jamstec is going to be close to what we actually see this winter. Then again long range forecasting is sort of like betting a bundle on a horse you have inside info on only to learn he was scratched just before the race. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Sometimes it is even worse, like taking stock tips, lol! 2 hours ago, MichaelJ said: I think the Jamstec is going to be close to what we actually see this winter. Then again long range forecasting is sort of like betting a bundle on a horse you have inside info on only to learn he was scratched just before the race. Believe much will come down to the North Pac and GOA low behavior. I want to say La Nina and -QBO is variable with hope. Avoiding a GOA deal killer is paramount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 It's official now, The Old Farmers Almanac, the 200+ year old, original almanac, says warmer than normal, above normal rainfall, below normal snowfall for our region! I could use the rain though! #EXCITED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 41 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: It's official now, The Old Farmers Almanac, the 200+ year old, original almanac, says warmer than normal, above normal rainfall, below normal snowfall for our region! I could use the rain though! #EXCITED With JB, CPC, and now the Old Farmers Almanac saying warmer than normal temps and below normal snow; we're going to have some blockbuster winter storms. But seriously, it's impossible to say the SE is going to be above or below dealing with snow. Maybe for temps, where enso tends to be more reliable. As other always state, it just take one good storm to get many to average or above. Look at the last post I have above. There are some really good years for winter storms during la nina. Granted there are also some bad years, but how can you forecast which will predominate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 5 hours ago, FallsLake said: With JB, CPC, and now the Old Farmers Almanac saying warmer than normal temps and below normal snow; we're going to have some blockbuster winter storms. But seriously, it's impossible to say the SE is going to be above or below dealing with snow. Maybe for temps, where enso tends to be more reliable. As other always state, it just take one good storm to get many to average or above. Look at the last post I have above. There are some really good years for winter storms during la nina. Granted there are also some bad years, but how can you forecast which will predominate. Yeah for snowfall in the east most of everyone can see there average snowfall in just one storm and be 70 degrees the next week lol. It is vastly different for the mountains. We need a mix of southern storms and plenty of NW snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 2 hours ago, Met1985 said: Yeah for snowfall in the east most of everyone can see there average snowfall in just one storm and be 70 degrees the next week lol. It is vastly different for the mountains. We need a mix of southern storms and plenty of NW snowfall. Seasonal snowfall above or below is an easier forecast for the mountains for sure. Easier, not easy. As you said, down here you are trying to forecast whether we will have 2 hours of snow or 8 hours of snow over a three-month period. That's all it takes to be below or above for the winter. Good luck with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, jburns said: Seasonal snowfall above or below is an easier forecast for the mountains for sure. Easier, not easy. As you said, down here you are trying to forecast whether we will have 2 hours of snow or 8 hours of snow over a three-month period. That's all it takes to be below or above for the winter. Good luck with that. Yeah we usually will get snow but how much and it can be very locally heavy in spots. Down east you are dealing with the warm layers, the track of the low, CAD, moisture, timing, speed, I mean it is a whole slew of things that goes into have a good snowfall down east. Yall also have a much higher percentage of a forecast busting also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 20, 2017 Author Share Posted September 20, 2017 On the seasonal snow topic, it's why I prefer to issue an outlook forecast for our region in terms of prospects, as opposed to hard and fast numbers. So it's like "I project the prospects for snow and ice threats (quality & quantity) to be above/below normal this winter." That's how I like to roll with it anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 18 minutes ago, griteater said: On the seasonal snow topic, it's why I prefer to issue an outlook forecast for our region in terms of prospects, as opposed to hard and fast numbers. So it's like "I project the prospects for snow and ice threats (quality & quantity) to be above/below normal this winter." That's how I like to roll with it anyway. I actually prefer this outlook unlike a hard number outlook. There is just a huge percentage to be completely wrong when listing hard numbers. I think the prospect of snow outside the mountains is a good way to go. Also Grit when will we get your outlook this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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