Iceagewhereartthou Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 One thing to watch will be whether or not we continue to see these big eastern troughs we've been getting since the spring. If those continue I think we'll be fine Nina or no. Of course we probably won't be able to buy one from Dec to Feb. Still, I would definitely take my chances with the pattern we've had the past six months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 I've found looking at analogs in the fall as a pretty difficult predictor for the winter. However,I will never forget that after we had Hugo in Sept of 89, we had one of the coldest Decembers on record. In fact it was a pretty chilly fall in 89, followed by a brutal December and an early spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 19 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: No winter talk, from the beach! Pretty sure my place on Emerald isle has gotten more snow than the farm in Moncure over the last 5 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 13, 2017 Author Share Posted September 13, 2017 Since 1950, there have been 37 -ENSO winters (Neutral Negative or La Nina). Looking at temperature data at CLT for those 37 winters... Strong La Ninas have been the warmest. Only 1 of 6 had below normal temps. We'll throw those out...don't think we are headed for a strong nina this winter. Of the remaining 31 winters, 18 were below normal and 13 were above normal. The avg of the 18 below normal winters was -1.5 The avg of the 13 above normal winters was +2.5. Only 1 of the 18 below normal, -ENSO winters had a +AO (2013-2014). 13 had a -AO. 4 had a neutral AO. Biases present themselves when expanding the time period and looking at the resultant data... From 1874-1949 (warm -ENSO period), 13 of 43 -ENSO winters were below normal, 30 were above normal. Avg for below normal years was -1.8, avg for above normal years was +2.6 From 1950-1984 (cool -ENSO period), 13 of 17 -ENSO winters were below normal, 4 were above normal. Avg for below normal years was -1.5, avg for above normal years was +1.8 From 1985-2017 (warm -ENSO period), 5 of 14 -ENSO winters were below normal, 9 were above normal. Avg for below normal years was -1.3, avg for above normal years was +2.9 Only 3 of the 24 below normal, -ENSO winters since 1899 had a +AO. 14 had a -AO. 7 had a neutral AO. Bottom Line: While excluding Strong La Ninas from the analysis, a high percentage of -ENSO winters experienced below normal temperatures during the golden era from 1950-1984 (the jburns era)....but outside of this period, 68% of -ENSO winter were above normal, with 32% below normal when viewing data back to 1874. The period from 1985-current has been a warm period, on avg, for -ENSO winters. Cool -ENSO winters tend to be modestly cool, while warm -ENSO winters tend to open the door for higher end anomalies on the plus side. When -ENSO winters are below normal, it's very rare for the AO to be positive. Note: for temperature departures at CLT, I used a moving 30 yr avg (e.g. avg for the 1960-1961 winter was based on temperature avgs from 1930-1960. I used Dec-Mar to define winter. I used -0.40 or lower for Dec-Mar to define -AO and +0.40 or higher to define +AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 jburns era or not the ballgame has changed. Whenever there is an opportunity for a warm SE winter the climate will take it. IMHO the baseline has changed significantly. Enough to make mid to late 20th century analogs much less useful than they were even 15 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 On September 11, 2017 at 11:33 PM, Iceagewhereartthou said: One thing to watch will be whether or not we continue to see these big eastern troughs we've been getting since the spring. If those continue I think we'll be fine Nina or no. Of course we probably won't be able to buy one from Dec to Feb. Still, I would definitely take my chances with the pattern we've had the past six months. See the west coast trough, east ridge pattern that's about to setup for the next 10days+!??? Get used to that pattern locking in till March!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Good analysis Grit. And Burns echos my thinking. If we're heading into a Nina, we'll likely be warmer. I would anticipate a +AO/+NAO combo. Warmer winter and below average snowfall is looking to be a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 2 hours ago, jburns said: jburns era or not the ballgame has changed. Whenever there is an opportunity for a warm SE winter the climate will take it. IMHO the baseline has changed significantly. Enough to make mid to late 20th century analogs much less useful than they were even 15 years ago. I'll savor the jackpot winters even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 14 hrs · Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 JB has updated his winter forecast!! And again it's Cold and Snowy, in The northern Rockies and Plains!!! The coldest air should be centered in the northern Rockies and Plains, with warm in the Southeast. I am confident about warmth in the Southeast. On a positive note (If you're a golfer) is it looks to be good wet/golfing weather in the SE.............................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 31 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: JB has updated his winter forecast!! And again it's Cold and Snowy, in The northern Rockies and Plains!!! The coldest air should be centered in the northern Rockies and Plains, with warm in the Southeast. I am confident about warmth in the Southeast. On a positive note (If you're a golfer) is it looks to be good wet/golfing weather in the SE.............................. Best news I've heard in a while. Time to get the kids snow stuff out and wax the sled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 It'll still probably be cooler than last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 1 hour ago, No snow for you said: Best news I've heard in a while. Time to get the kids snow stuff out and wax the sled. lol, Still mulling over the Crayola Irma storm track map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Carolina Alley plus Georgia storm chasing should be good! 4 hours ago, Solak said: 14 hrs · 3 hours ago, BIG FROSTY said: JB has updated his winter forecast!! And again it's Cold and Snowy, in The northern Rockies and Plains!!! The coldest air should be centered in the northern Rockies and Plains, with warm in the Southeast. I am confident about warmth in the Southeast. On a positive note (If you're a golfer) is it looks to be good wet/golfing weather in the SE.............................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 On 9/12/2017 at 0:17 PM, Upstate Tiger said: I've found looking at analogs in the fall as a pretty difficult predictor for the winter. However,I will never forget that after we had Hugo in Sept of 89, we had one of the coldest Decembers on record. In fact it was a pretty chilly fall in 89, followed by a brutal December and an early spring. Yep, I remember that December. Had a coastal blizzard in eastern NC and super cold. Anyone remember the winters of 2004 and 2005? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 I think the thing we really need to be focusing on is if this winter will be conducive to winter storms. From memory, a la nina does average out warmer but there are more ups and downs (warm/cold) with the pattern. If we can get down periods (blocking-eastern thoroughness) winter storms will threaten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 1 hour ago, yotaman said: Yep, I remember that December. Had a coastal blizzard in eastern NC and super cold. Anyone remember the winters of 2004 and 2005? That one storm in December hurt because I was too far west. (so for me) It was not a horrible winter, but not good as well. http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter_wx/database.php?location_county=&StartYear=1969&StartMonth=01&StartDay=1&EndYear=2015&EndMonth=08&EndDay=1&Submit=Submit&page=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 NWSCPCVerified account @NWSCPC 5h5 hours ago A La Nina watch has been issued, with a 55-60% chance of #LaNina during Northern Hemisphere fall & winter 2017-18. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 6 hours ago, Solak said: 14 hrs · I'm on the line between cold/snowy and mild/wet and cold/wet bets have been hedged lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 35 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: I'm on the line between cold/snowy and mild/wet and cold/wet bets have been hedged lol That map is confusing. It looks like the categories are based on region. Tennessee is classified as cold/snowy and Kentucky is mild/wet. You would assume Kentucky will have more wintery precip overall than Tennessee; but I guess Tennessee will get more per average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 1 hour ago, FallsLake said: That map is confusing. It looks like the categories are based on region. Tennessee is classified as cold/snowy and Kentucky is mild/wet. You would assume Kentucky will have more wintery precip overall than Tennessee; but I guess Tennessee will get more per average. Yeah and good luck on the snow belt in NY being mild and wet. Syracuse is never mild and wet in the winter. It's a cold and snowy place in winter. Never fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Well Ryan Maue has a FB post that says La Niña means wild winter weather and colder globally! Then about two posts down, the man, the myth, the legend, Glenn MF'n Burns showed a torch map that NOAA put out, and riding it line a rented mule?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Well Ryan Maue has a FB post that says La Niña means wild winter weather and colder globally! Then about two posts down, the man, the myth, the legend, Glenn MF'n Burns showed a torch map that NOAA put out, and riding it line a rented mule?! The one thing I have learned in my 50 years of living, no one is good at long range forecasting but everyone is good at guessing. Sometimes you will get lucky and guess right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 2 hours ago, DixieBlizzard said: The one thing I have learned in my 50 years of living, no one is good at long range forecasting but everyone is good at guessing. Sometimes you will get lucky and guess right. Agreed! It's just funny that two people see the same info , and come away with polar opposite thoughts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Ryan Maue was just being silly because of what media does when El Nino comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 7 hours ago, FallsLake said: That map is confusing. It looks like the categories are based on region. Tennessee is classified as cold/snowy and Kentucky is mild/wet. You would assume Kentucky will have more wintery precip overall than Tennessee; but I guess Tennessee will get more per average. And somehow it has parts of North and South Dakota as mild/wet. I can't imagine it raining in North Dakota in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 It's going to be a good winter. Robert ( I think that's the wxsouth guys name?) Is back full time!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 8 hours ago, AsheCounty48 said: It's going to be a good winter. Robert ( I think that's the wxsouth guys name?) Is back full time!!! I miss the days he was a big part of this forum. Really good met.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 15, 2017 Author Share Posted September 15, 2017 Updated for Euro, JAMSTEC, & JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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