FallsLake Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Don't have high hopes for this winter, especially if we're looking at a healthy La Niña or Nina-looking atmosphere. We've had some good winter storms during la nina years. One of my favorites occurred in January 1996. 5-6 inches of sleet and a couple of inches on top. It really comes down to getting some of that luck the SE always needs for a storm. http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 hour ago, Cold Rain said: Don't have high hopes for this winter, especially if we're looking at a healthy La Niña or Nina-looking atmosphere. I agree. I don't look for this winter to be much. If we can average near normal great but I am getting use to 70s in winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 hours ago, Met1985 said: I agree. I don't look for this winter to be much. If we can average near normal great but I am getting use to 70s in winter.... Unfortunately, 70s in the winter is far more normal now than snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 3 hours ago, FallsLake said: We've had some good winter storms during la nina years. One of my favorites occurred in January 1996. 5-6 inches of sleet and a couple of inches on top. It really comes down to getting some of that luck the SE always needs for a storm. http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm Yep, agree. Also, wasn't the Jan 2000 storm in a La Niña year? I wish I could find some weather video coverage of that storm, either old local or TWC footage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, Cold Rain said: Unfortunately, 70s in the winter is far more normal now than snow. Yes the past few years this is correct. It is sad that we cannot even average near normal in any part of winter until we get to maybe March... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 10 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yes the past few years this is correct. It is sad that we cannot even average near normal in any part of winter until we get to maybe March... Yep, agreed. And it seems we're always waiting on the infamous back-loaded winter, these days. I hate that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 25 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yep, agreed. And it seems we're always waiting on the infamous back-loaded winter, these days. I hate that. You won't be worried about winter, when it takes till January to get your power back! I don't know why you want winter storms any way, all you get is sleet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 This thread is full of debbie's, or would you rather be called shetley's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 3 hours ago, franklin NCwx said: This thread is full of debbie's, or would you rather be called shetley's? Lol easy Franklin easy! I'm trying to not get my hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 My mean high anomalies, against long term 1931-2016 "normals" declined from June to July to August. My temperature transitions are usually an indicator for SE high strength, because of how the Monsoon works out here. I went from +3F, to +0F, to -1F for June to July to August. If you blend all the years with cooling anomalies from June to August in ABQ you get the correct spatial match to this Summer for the US. Summer was very different from last year really on a national level, when the heat in the West was insane in NM in July (basically greatest heat anomalies on Earth last July), as opposed to being insane in NV / CA / the NW this year. The Summer years don't really have a strong temperature signal for winter nationally, but they do have the SE pretty wet in winter. The other things I like to blend together for winter outlooks kind of imply a slightly warm (+0 to +2F) winter in the SE for highs w/ above normal precip most areas. Part of this is just that the AMO has been trending cooler than last year, and the hurricanes should cool it more? Nov-Apr 2016-17 AMO value was +0.279 - third highest value for that period since 1931. It's a super cold Neutral or a super weak La Nina with a cooler Atlantic, those things, with the coolness in the south all imply a weaker heat dome in your area for the winter to me. None of this +6F nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 5 hours ago, Met1985 said: Lol easy Franklin easy! I'm trying to not get my hopes up. Lol... I would expect an average winter at this point. Anything above would be a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 10 hours ago, franklin NCwx said: This thread is full of debbie's, or would you rather be called shetley's? This 123 degree heat is killing me. What a brutal summer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 12 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: This 123 degree heat is killing me. What a brutal summer! Just wait until you go 180 days without rain!#shetleyville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi Following We interrupt this hurricane season for an important message. Euro joins CFSV2 in healthy La nina for winter. this is a cfsv2 coup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 13 minutes ago, packfan98 said: Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi Following We interrupt this hurricane season for an important message. Euro joins CFSV2 in healthy La nina for winter. this is a cfsv2 coup Another float in the parade of warm winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 44 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Another float in the parade of warm winters. It's not looking good again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 hour ago, packfan98 said: Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi Following We interrupt this hurricane season for an important message. Euro joins CFSV2 in healthy La nina for winter. this is a cfsv2 coup But...but... we read on this board "JB forecasts cold and snow every year" this can't be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 32 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: But...but... we read on this board "JB forecasts cold and snow every year" this can't be correct. You didn't hear that from me. I have always enjoyed JB. He's a weather geek like the rest of us. He doesn't always get things right, but he always has scientific reasons for his beliefs. People bash him too much and definitely stereotype his forecasts. He calls for warm and cold. He's not afraid to talk about extremes of what is possible. He's kind of like the NAM of weather forecasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 44 minutes ago, packfan98 said: You didn't hear that from me. I have always enjoyed JB. He's a weather geek like the rest of us. He doesn't always get things right, but he always has scientific reasons for his beliefs. People bash him too much and definitely stereotype his forecasts. He calls for warm and cold. He's not afraid to talk about extremes of what is possible. He's kind of like the NAM of weather forecasters. Im with ya on JB. This Hurricane season sure fits the La Nina evoloution standard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 These under modeled and over performing atlantic ridges should bode well for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 I think we will have a rather boring winter, not really cold and not real warm, probably slightly above normal. We VERY seldom have cold winters with a La Nina in this part of the country and I don't see that changing. If anything, I think it will be slightly above normal for a La Nina based on the -QBO and the persistence of the high pressures ridges that have been forming in the western Atlantic. Doesn't mean we can't have wintry precipitation a couple of times if the timing is right but I don't think we will have a lot to track this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 After tracking these hurricanes, It's ok by me to only have a couple of winter threats. Hopefully we get a good 4-5 inch storm and I'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 11, 2017 Author Share Posted September 11, 2017 Updates for NMME and UKMET... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 You know winter is coming when you start to see this in the US.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 7 minutes ago, downeastnc said: You know winter is coming when you start to see this in the SE .... Can't wait! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Big canes are good for snow. Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 49 minutes ago, No snow for you said: Big canes are good for snow. Right? Yeah, if you live north of the NC/VA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 55 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yeah, if you live north of the NC/VA border. No winter talk, from the beach! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 45 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: No winter talk, from the beach! Challenge accepted! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 4 hours ago, griteater said: Updates for NMME and UKMET... Standard Nina winter incoming. But it'll still be way cooler than last year in all likelihood. It'll be hard to beat the extremes we had from Jan-Apr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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