FlatLander48 Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 outside of maybe the CFS, all of those show a winter that is light years better than the past 2, even if it doesn't mean lots of winter precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 Yeah I can do with slightly above normal than ragging 70 degrees in the middle of winter. Hopefully better opportunities for us all. Thanks Grit for keeping us up to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 Thanks for all the updates Grit!! I still say this winter got to be better than last two (right)? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 Mild Deep South and Gulf Coast. Near Normal temps Carolinas, North Georgia, Tennessee Valley and Mid-South. Reasoning: -QBO, persistent +PNA, yet for the Deep South La Nina-ish background. Weak ENSO should allow more fluctuations with the MJO. That'll be fun! Super Nino hangover usually lasts another year, but this is n+2 so less a factor. Ask me about the AO in November, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 28, 2017 Author Share Posted August 28, 2017 29 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Weak ENSO should allow more fluctuations with the MJO. That'll be fun! In graphical form! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 1 hour ago, nrgjeff said: Mild Deep South and Gulf Coast. Near Normal temps Carolinas, North Georgia, Tennessee Valley and Mid-South. Reasoning: -QBO, persistent +PNA, yet for the Deep South La Nina-ish background. Weak ENSO should allow more fluctuations with the MJO. That'll be fun! Super Nino hangover usually lasts another year, but this is n+2 so less a factor. Ask me about the AO in November, lol. Persistent +PNA with a La Niña circulation/background state? That would be very unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 5 hours ago, griteater said: Lots of weather going on...but on the winter front, the latest PDF & Spread Corrected CFS is now projecting an official weak La Nina. Daily averaged AAM for the period Jun 1 - Aug 27 is -0.37....and for the period Aug 1-27, it is -0.55....and it is forecast to remain negative in the near term (next 2 weeks). Negative AAM values are one indicator of a La Nina like atmospheric circulation. Very good points. Clear La Niña background state/circulation with the -AAM, continued lag from last winter's La Niña? We are clearly in La Niña mode, cooling ENSO region SSTs, cold pool developing in the subsurface, strong easterly trade wind surges. Also look at the PDO, it has gone into a quite a stout negative configuration. This is the first time in years that we have seen a healthy negative PDO at this point in the season, in fact, it has been dropping steadily since early April. I'm still thinking cold-neutral (La Nada) ENSO for this winter, I just don't see this becoming an official weak La Niña. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 17 hours ago, BIG FROSTY said: Thanks for all the updates Grit!! I still say this winter got to be better than last two (right)? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk That's what JB said! Blockbuster incoming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 That's what JB said! Blockbuster incoming!Didn't hear him say that? Odds are for it to be better. I think?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 52 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Didn't hear him say that? Odds are for it to be better. I think? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Think he said it a month or so ago, but he was saying that when a Nino was showing up, now that that has seemed to have went down the crapper, he'll probably change his tune! But I can assure you that his winter forecast will be: 200% above normal snowfall for Mid Atlantic and into the Northeast , and very cold /below normal temps for same areas! Watch and see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 Reading comprehension is weak with this one. Read more and post less! 23 hours ago, snowman19 said: Persistent +PNA with a La Niña circulation/background state? That would be very unlikely On 8/28/2017 at 3:29 PM, nrgjeff said: Mild Deep South and Gulf Coast. Near Normal temps Carolinas, North Georgia, Tennessee Valley and Mid-South. Reasoning: -QBO, persistent +PNA, yet for the Deep South La Nina-ish background. Weak ENSO should allow more fluctuations with the MJO. That'll be fun! Super Nino hangover usually lasts another year, but this is n+2 so less a factor. Ask me about the AO in November, lol. I will add that you have a horrible understanding of the PDO. It is way more than a number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 JB posted that CFSv2 showing a strong "Healthy La Niña "! Recently on FB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 Do they even still have Pearl Visions anymore? I used to see commercials for them during the same era as that Belltone thing for hearing loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: You are clueless. If you can look at that sst configuration in the Pacific and say that's not -PDO, get an appointment at Pearl Vision I'm going with the Met degree on this one. I strongly suggest you disengage and return to your area forum because I'm not going to play around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 2 hours ago, Cold Rain said: Do they even still have Pearl Visions anymore? I used to see commercials for them during the same era as that Belltone thing for hearing loss. Yeah, it's right beside the Circuit City store , in the Colecovision and Atari 2600 section! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 On 8/28/2017 at 11:32 AM, griteater said: We have reached totality with the August seasonal model output. The JMA isn't released in Aug - it comes out in Sep & Oct. I threw in the NOAA outlook at the end. CFS has cooled quite a bit over the last two weeks, but it's still way too early to put any stock in it (if indeed one should). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 14 minutes ago, griteater said: I'll take my chances with that look. Being in the SE we have to get key players lined up just right. With the colder than normal temps to the NW, all it takes is a few highs to wedge down and give us some nice storms. Ducks on the pond... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 Early Sep returns coming in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Trend ain't our friend on grits early returns for Sept. Very early but pendellum is way more on the LA Nina side outlook wise as opposed to the neutral weak El nino preferred look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Well, since we had a pretty active spring and summer with storms, more than we have had around here in recent years, and a major hurricane and maybe another one coming, I'm just going to say we're going to have a monster snow storm here in the Triangle this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Well, since we had a pretty active spring and summer with storms, more than we have had around here in recent years, and a major hurricane and maybe another one coming, I'm just going to say we're going to have a monster snow storm here in the Triangle this winter. Do yearly analogues point to the SE having an active and (snow)-stormy winter this year? The fact that we're having quite an active hurricane season this fall is leading me to think we're gonna have a fun winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Well, since we had a pretty active spring and summer with storms, more than we have had around here in recent years, and a major hurricane and maybe another one coming, I'm just going to say we're going to have a monster snow storm here in the Triangle this winter. That post crossed the line. 2 hours of the Weenie Tag. Unless I fall asleep. then you'll have it until tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, jburns said: That post crossed the line. 2 hours of the Weenie Tag. Unless I fall asleep. then you'll have it until tomorrow. Lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 I'm just speculating. Works just as well as any other long range forecast for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 27 minutes ago, GlaringSun said: Do yearly analogues point to the SE having an active and (snow)-stormy winter this year? The fact that we're having quite an active hurricane season this fall is leading me to think we're gonna have a fun winter I saw a wooly worm, walking over an abundance of fallen acorns! Buy rock salt by the pallet, while there is still some to be had! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 San Francisco set an all-time high temperature yesterday of 106 degrees, which beat the previous number by 3 degrees (103)...that's stunning for an all-time high. Maybe the ridge will just stay parked out there from summer to winter???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Griteater outlook is solid as usual. Definitely this year is a major hemispheric pattern shift. Pac NW has reversed from previous two years; looks more like fall 13/fall 14, but I doubt we'll be as cold due to residual warmth. Griteater catches all of those thoughts in his chart. Personally I hold out hope for a colder back half of winter. My Sep-Dec charts look almost exactly like Griteater's. Note the confidence meter still leaves the door open to hope for colder. On the other hand, we are still in the South, lol. Either way, even slight AN, winter will be significantly colder than the prior two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 Oh, sorry nrgjeff, that map I posted was from BAMWX.com...I should have specified. Thanks tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Don't have high hopes for this winter, especially if we're looking at a healthy La Niña or Nina-looking atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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