mackerel_sky Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 4 hours ago, NorthernUpstateSC said: Saw the first wooly worm today, about 65%-75% black. According to the old wife's tale the more black on their coats the colder the winter. Here is his first official winter forecast according to the worm: a front end thump of bitter cold and snow for december through january and then a milder period in february (thaw) followed by an back end thump of cold and snow in march according to his stripes. Most years there has been very little black in their coats mostly brown but, I have seen a few times like this one today where there is a good bit more black than brown. Those winters turned out to pretty cold with several snows. We shall see..... I've seen all black wooly worms, and not had a blockbuster winter! Hope springs eternal each fall, almanacs come out, we look at animals and fogs, acorns, persimmon seeds, etc! I'm optimistic, until it's February, have not had a wintry storm, and we are looking at 300+ hour GFS for any hope of cold , much less snow, and we start throwing around " backloaded" winter, and our " biggest snows" have came in March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 Maybe we could just pull up last year's threads and reuse those. That would save the board some space Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 48 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I've seen all black wooly worms, and not had a blockbuster winter! Hope springs eternal each fall, almanacs come out, we look at animals and fogs, acorns, persimmon seeds, etc! I'm optimistic, until it's February, have not had a wintry storm, and we are looking at 300+ hour GFS for any hope of cold , much less snow, and we start throwing around " backloaded" winter, and our " biggest snows" have came in March You forgot.... 1960 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 9 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: Maybe we could just pull up last year's threads and reuse those. That would save the board some space No way! JB said its going to be like 09/10 all over again! So yeah , just bring up last years despair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 18z Friday run of the CFS shows a pretty cool January. Win in my books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 On 8/19/2017 at 0:31 PM, shahroz98 said: 18z Friday run of the CFS shows a pretty cool January. Win in my books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 On 8/18/2017 at 9:46 PM, mackerel_sky said: I've seen all black wooly worms, and not had a blockbuster winter! Hope springs eternal each fall, almanacs come out, we look at animals and fogs, acorns, persimmon seeds, etc! I'm optimistic, until it's February, have not had a wintry storm, and we are looking at 300+ hour GFS for any hope of cold , much less snow, and we start throwing around " backloaded" winter, and our " biggest snows" have came in March Mack, seeing a black wooly worm and then having a total eclipse all within a few days...... Man this winter has got to be our year here in the Upstate... LOL.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 Hope this is right. http://www.onlyinyourstate.com/north-carolina/nc-farmers-almanac-winter-2018/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 2 hours ago, NorthernUpstateSC said: Mack, seeing a black wooly worm and then having a total eclipse all within a few days...... Man this winter has got to be our year here in the Upstate... LOL.... I'm game! It can't be any worse than the last 2! We have JB on our side, so we are in good shape! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Hope this is right. http://www.onlyinyourstate.com/north-carolina/nc-farmers-almanac-winter-2018/ If they are basing this snowy and cold winter on El Niño, they are probably already wrong! It's looking Niña ish possibly, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 15 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: If they are basing this snowy and cold winter on El Niño, they are probably already wrong! It's looking Niña ish possibly, I'm going to go ahead and believe it because what else is there to believe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 4 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: If they are basing this snowy and cold winter on El Niño, they are probably already wrong! It's looking Niña ish possibly, Very weak Nina if one at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 12 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: If they are basing this snowy and cold winter on El Niño, they are probably already wrong! It's looking Niña ish possibly, Bingo! I saw a couple of preliminary winter forecasts for the east 2 months ago, also assuming a Niño, dead wrong already. There is a zero chance of an El Niño anymore, that ship has sailed. Most likely cold neutral or even very weak La Niña Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 14 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: If they are basing this snowy and cold winter on El Niño, they are probably already wrong! It's looking Niña ish possibly, Mack, Just keep your shovel close by!! Looks like JB's early call is normal across the board !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 La Nina is looking very likely. Strength is the question. Models not a help since they're all playing major catchup! Hard to believe a few models were calling for a very strong Nino a few months ago. As far as winter...too me looks much better at this point. +PNA spikes over the last month, - QBO, & low solar are signs of a potentially much improved winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 I am predicting feet upon feet of 7 day out snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 2 hours ago, BIG FROSTY said: Mack, Just keep your shovel close by!! Looks like JB's early call is normal across the board !! A Frosty sighting ! You know winter is close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 28 minutes ago, stadiumwave said: La Nina is looking very likely. Strength is the question. Models not a help since they're all playing major catchup! Hard to believe a few models were calling for a very strong Nino a few months ago. As far as winter...too me looks much better at this point. +PNA spikes over the last month, - QBO, & low solar are signs of a potentially much improved winter. And who's to say they don't change back in a October or November? We're still in August. It's all a crap shoot in my opinion. In my mind what are the chances of 3 warm winters in a row? that's the only thing that has me thinking we're in for a better winter. All the other variables there's just no way to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 22, 2017 Author Share Posted August 22, 2017 And who's to say they don't change back in a October or November? We're still in August. It's all a crap shoot in my opinion. In my mind what are the chances of 3 warm winters in a row? that's the only thing that has me thinking we're in for a better winter. All the other variables there's just no way to tell. Things like the amount of polar blocking and the mean trough/ridge pattern are hard to predict (though some like trying )...but things like ENSO and the QBO can be predicted with good accuracy as we go into the fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 5 hours ago, SnowNiner said: And who's to say they don't change back in a October or November? We're still in August. It's all a crap shoot in my opinion. In my mind what are the chances of 3 warm winters in a row? that's the only thing that has me thinking we're in for a better winter. All the other variables there's just no way to tell. 1 A higher chance than this. The planet hasn’t had a cooler-than-normal month — nevermind record-setting cool — in 381 months (nearly 32 years).(As of October 2016) http://www.climatecentral.org/news/hottest-months-global-warming-20797 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 22 hours ago, Brick Tamland said: Hope this is right. http://www.onlyinyourstate.com/north-carolina/nc-farmers-almanac-winter-2018/ It will be....... for the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 3 hours ago, griteater said: Things like the amount of polar blocking and the mean trough/ridge pattern are hard to predict (though some like trying )...but things like ENSO and the QBO can be predicted with good accuracy as we go into the fall Yes, but we're only in August still. I guess I'm just saying let's see where we are in October to come to an ENSO conclusion. August seems a bit premature. And, even with a bad ENSO there's no telling how to predict the ridge/trough pattern as you say. It's chaos I say, chaos! 14 minutes ago, jburns said: A higher chance than this. The planet hasn’t had a cooler-than-normal month — nevermind record-setting cool — in 381 months (nearly 32 years).(As of October 2016) http://www.climatecentral.org/news/hottest-months-global-warming-20797 Yes, but in the SE we've gotten a few below average months....wasn't June and July a bit below normal? Don't take away my hope. It's all I got man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 9 hours ago, stadiumwave said: La Nina is looking very likely. Strength is the question. Models not a help since they're all playing major catchup! Hard to believe a few models were calling for a very strong Nino a few months ago. As far as winter...too me looks much better at this point. +PNA spikes over the last month, - QBO, & low solar are signs of a potentially much improved winter. Which models were calling for Nino? CFS, at least, never was. It's been showing the cooldown since even in the spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 3 hours ago, SnowNiner said: Yes, but we're only in August still. I guess I'm just saying let's see where we are in October to come to an ENSO conclusion. August seems a bit premature. And, even with a bad ENSO there's no telling how to predict the ridge/trough pattern as you say. It's chaos I say, chaos! Yes, but in the SE we've gotten a few below average months....wasn't June and July a bit below normal? Don't take away my hope. It's all I got man. Yes, but I was only talking in response to the the odds of something happening. I was not making a prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 4 hours ago, SnowNiner said: Yes, but we're only in August still. I guess I'm just saying let's see where we are in October to come to an ENSO conclusion. August seems a bit premature. And, even with a bad ENSO there's no telling how to predict the ridge/trough pattern as you say. It's chaos I say, chaos! Yes, but in the SE we've gotten a few below average months....wasn't June and July a bit below normal? Don't take away my hope. It's all I got man. It's not all you gott, a two hour drive will get you to the mountains, I feel they will do well this winter! If patterns repeat, we've had a lot of troughs in the east , so if that continues, should lead to a lot of NW flow events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 21 hours ago, SnowNiner said: And who's to say they don't change back in a October or November? We're still in August. It's all a crap shoot in my opinion. In my mind what are the chances of 3 warm winters in a row? that's the only thing that has me thinking we're in for a better winter. All the other variables there's just no way to tell. Ummm...no. Nino is not happening 12 hours ago, WidreMann said: Which models were calling for Nino? CFS, at least, never was. It's been showing the cooldown since even in the spring. Almost every single model except for CFS: JAMSTEC, European Seasonal, all NMME Page models...etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 8 hours ago, stadiumwave said: Ummm...no. Nino is not happening Almost every single model except for CFS: JAMSTEC, European Seasonal, all NMME Page models...etc. Agree here. The ship has already sailed on an El Niño, it's over, fat lady has sung. Zero chance. This is a cold-neutral/La Nada event coming up IMO. I don't agree with the La Niña calls, I don't see this ever becoming an official La Niña, even a very weak one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 13 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Agree here. The ship has already sailed on an El Niño, it's over, fat lady has sung. Zero chance. This is a cold-neutral/La Nada event coming up IMO. I don't agree with the La Niña calls, I don't see this ever becoming an official La Niña, even a very weak one All these indicators havnt really been good for sh!t the last few years! Wake me when there's a winter storm 24 hours out and I'm not in the upper 40s waiting on the cold air to arrive , and the precip isn't 18hours ahead of schedule! If we don't have blocking, we are screwed! I know we've scored without it, but yeah, it's like our March snows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 28, 2017 Author Share Posted August 28, 2017 Lots of weather going on...but on the winter front, the latest PDF & Spread Corrected CFS is now projecting an official weak La Nina. Daily averaged AAM for the period Jun 1 - Aug 27 is -0.37....and for the period Aug 1-27, it is -0.55....and it is forecast to remain negative in the near term (next 2 weeks). Negative AAM values are one indicator of a La Nina like atmospheric circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 28, 2017 Author Share Posted August 28, 2017 We have reached totality with the August seasonal model output. The JMA isn't released in Aug - it comes out in Sep & Oct. I threw in the NOAA outlook at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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