griteater Posted August 2, 2017 Author Share Posted August 2, 2017 As I did a year ago, I will model chase the seasonal models as they come in thru Oct. A year ago, 8 of the 11 showed above normal winter temperatures in the southeast in their October release....and that's what we got, above normal temperatures. Here are the early August returns... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 1 hour ago, griteater said: As I did a year ago, I will model chase the seasonal models as they come in thru Oct. A year ago, 8 of the 11 showed above normal winter temperatures in the southeast in their October release....and that's what we got, above normal temperatures. Here are the early August returns... I have no high hopes for this to be a blockbuster winter, but it's nice to see the Canadian showing a little step towards normal. (Its August, but still). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 On 7/24/2017 at 3:11 PM, griteater said: It actually hasn't been that bad (i.e. that warm, ha). Here are each of the Charlotte Dec-Mar departures for the last 20 winters from 1997-1998 to 2016-2017 (compared to 1981-2010 normals): +2.3 (97-98), +4.7, +0.6, -2.6, +1.1, -2.0, -2.2, -0.6, -0.1, +1.6, +1.4, -0.2, -4.0, -2.5, +4.5, 0.0, -2.1, -1.3, +3.7, +2.5 (16-17 *this one is an estimate) So, 9 above normal, 8 below normal, and 3 near normal, with the total composite for those years looking like this... That's not bad...but it's aint good. #GWFTL This is what we want... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 10, 2017 Author Share Posted August 10, 2017 From @BenNollWeather... "Perhaps the most interesting trend in the new ECMWF seasonal data for boreal winter 2017-18 is toward a more negative AO. NAO is variable. Examining the data a bit further: the top cluster (~50% of members) favor above normal heights across western North America during Dec-Feb." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 A colder winter is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wow said: A colder winter is coming. I'm looking forward to tracking some good winter storms this year. We get little sleep but it's fun(...wife thinks I'm crazy). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 2 hours ago, Wow said: A colder winter is coming. Coming from you, one of my eyebrows just became elevated! If you mean colder than last year then that's a pretty safe bet. Care to give anymore detailed thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 A lot of unknowns at this point (as JB Tweeted): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 14 hours ago, Wow said: A colder winter is coming. That wasn't a prediction, it was just a game of thrones pun... No idea what this winter is to bring. I've given up on trying to figure it out. Fun to speculate though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted August 11, 2017 Share Posted August 11, 2017 11 hours ago, FallsLake said: A lot of unknowns at this point (as JB Tweeted): The only thing less accurate than the CFS is JB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 11, 2017 Author Share Posted August 11, 2017 A few updates trickling in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 12, 2017 Share Posted August 12, 2017 On 8/10/2017 at 11:26 PM, WidreMann said: The only thing less accurate than the CFS is JB. Back in March and April Joe Bastardi was throughly convinced that we were going to see a moderate to strong west-based/Modoki El Niño; we are heading for a cool-neutral La Nada now. Over the last 3 years, he's been absolutely horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 9 hours ago, snowman19 said: Back in March and April Joe Bastardi was throughly convinced that we were going to see a moderate to strong west-based/Modoki El Niño; we are heading for a cool-neutral La Nada now. Over the last 3 years, he's been absolutely horrible at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 15, 2017 Author Share Posted August 15, 2017 We have updates. I removed the CA Model, at least for now, because its initialization and early fall projection of ENSO looks too high (+0.5 / +0.6) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 This isn't starting off well, Grit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 15 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: This isn't starting off well, Grit. Easy fix. Switch the headers in the temp and precip columns. BOOM great winter ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 16, 2017 Author Share Posted August 16, 2017 Saw where Nino 3.4 SST anomaly has dropped down to -0.62 on the daily reading. We've gone from threatening to go into an El Nino to threatening to go back into a La Nina in terms of SSTs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 52 minutes ago, griteater said: Saw where Nino 3.4 SST anomaly has dropped down to -0.62 on the daily reading. We've gone from threatening to go into an El Nino to threatening to go back into a La Nina in terms of SSTs The atmosphere/ocean is still clearly in La Niña mode; enhanced trade winds, PDO going solidly negative, subsurface cold pool appearing below region 3.4, SSTs dropping in that region....Question is do we stay cold-neutral (La Nada) or do we go back into a La Niña for the 2nd winter in a row? My money is still on cold-neutral this winter. If we were to go back into a Niña, I can't imagine it being more than very weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 JB has been spewing garbage about it being like winter of 13/14! Was that good for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: JB has been spewing garbage about it being like winter of 13/14! Was that good for us? It was cold and snowy for the northeast of course, remember the "polar vortex" hysteria that winter? JB decided back in April that this is going to be a very cold and snowy winter for the northeast. He was also convinced that we were going to be deep into a west-based/Modoki El Niño at this point in time. Just like the movie Groundhog Day, he's a broken record, hit the repeat button. Same cold/snowy forecast for the northeast every year from him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 Get ready y'all. The Famer's Almanac winter prediction is out: Of particular note, for those readers rooting for shovels, we are red-flagging the 2018 dates of January 20-23, February 4-7 & 16-19, and March 1-3 & 20-23 along the Atlantic Seaboard for some heavy precipitation. Good news for skiers and snow enthusiasts, but for those looking to build sandcastles, not-so-good news, but a good time to book that tropical getaway. “One of the key components in our formula is the Moon and its motions. The Moon has a proven influence on the tides, and it is our belief that it may have effects on our atmosphere as well. Ocean tides can be accurately predicted, so part of our formula relies on the belief that we can line up certain weather patterns with a specific position of the Moon in its orbit … ” – Caleb Weatherbee, Official Almanac Weather Prognosticator Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 Analogs at this stage of the game (could change) using QBO, ENSO, Solar, August/September patterns (this is pure speculation) that I lean upon are: 1960-61, 1962-63, 1981-82, 1985-86, 1989-90, 2005-06, 2013-14, 2016-17 It's bound to change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 17, 2017 Author Share Posted August 17, 2017 stadium - you wouldn't include 2015-2016 Super El Nino winter would you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 40 minutes ago, griteater said: stadium - you wouldn't include 2015-2016 Super El Nino winter would you? Lol...whoops! Meant 2016-17...fixed 1974-75 is tempting also but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 3 hours ago, packfan98 said: Get ready y'all. The Famer's Almanac winter prediction is out: Of particular note, for those readers rooting for shovels, we are red-flagging the 2018 dates of January 20-23, February 4-7 & 16-19, and March 1-3 & 20-23 along the Atlantic Seaboard for some heavy precipitation. Good news for skiers and snow enthusiasts, but for those looking to build sandcastles, not-so-good news, but a good time to book that tropical getaway. “One of the key components in our formula is the Moon and its motions. The Moon has a proven influence on the tides, and it is our belief that it may have effects on our atmosphere as well. Ocean tides can be accurately predicted, so part of our formula relies on the belief that we can line up certain weather patterns with a specific position of the Moon in its orbit … ” – Caleb Weatherbee, Official Almanac Weather Prognosticator Farmers Almanac or the new GFS. It's a damn difficult choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 On 8/10/2017 at 0:29 PM, SnowNiner said: That wasn't a prediction, it was just a game of thrones pun... No idea what this winter is to bring. I've given up on trying to figure it out. Fun to speculate though. I'm moving 5 miles further north so a colder winter is definitely coming for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 Not that it matters but 500mb anomalies over N. Hemisphere for the 1st half of August 2013 is crazy similar to this August. ENSO very similar, but QBO & solar quiet different. But for certain 2013 is the closest match for August thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 1 hour ago, stadiumwave said: Not that it matters but 500mb anomalies over N. Hemisphere for the 1st half of August 2013 is crazy similar to this August. ENSO very similar, but QBO & solar quiet different. But for certain 2013 is the closest match for August thus far. August 1-17, 2013 August 1-17, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 Saw the first wooly worm today, about 65%-75% black. According to the old wife's tale the more black on their coats the colder the winter. Here is his first official winter forecast according to the worm: a front end thump of bitter cold and snow for december through january and then a milder period in february (thaw) followed by an back end thump of cold and snow in march according to his stripes. Most years there has been very little black in their coats mostly brown but, I have seen a few times like this one today where there is a good bit more black than brown. Those winters turned out to pretty cold with several snows. We shall see..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 2 hours ago, NorthernUpstateSC said: Saw the first wooly worm today, about 65%-75% black. According to the old wife's tale the more black on their coats the colder the winter. Here is his first official winter forecast according to the worm: a front end thump of bitter cold and snow for december through january and then a milder period in february (thaw) followed by an back end thump of cold and snow in march according to his stripes. Most years there has been very little black in their coats mostly brown but, I have seen a few times like this one today where there is a good bit more black than brown. Those winters turned out to pretty cold with several snows. We shall see..... 6 Well, it is way, way early but after reading about August fogs the other day and wooly worms today I guess an early edition of my southern winter folklore post is in order. Top Six Southern Winter Folklore Sayings 1. If you count the morning fogs in August you will know how many August mornings were foggy. 2. A heavy crop of acorns will lead to fatter than average squirrels next spring. 3. If it thunders in winter, 10 days later it will have happened 10 days ago. 4. If you study the bands of the wooly worm you will know how many are brown and how many are black. 5. Snow that lays on the ground for more than three days is dirty. 6. A ring around the moon means your Lasik surgeon screwed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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