Winter 17-18 Speculation

[WidreMann]

6 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

I guess that's what happened in 2009-10, 10-11, 13-14, 14-15?

You can pick 4 years out of 10, and you forget the wall-to-wall warm winters of 11-12, 16-17. We didn't really have any wall-to-wall cold winters in that period except maybe 13-14.

[WidreMann]

6 hours ago, griteater said:

Looking at it in terms of 500mb height anomalies for the period from July 2014 to June 2017 ( which corresponds to the time period of elevated tropical and subtropical SST warmth on your chart), it's pretty remarkable how there are only a few small pockets of below normal anomalies, with 90% of the northern hemisphere in above normal anomalies...a background state of elevated heights and warmth no doubt.

Yep. As far as I'm concerned, until those SSTs get closer to normal (if they do...), we will have generally warm weather.

[stadiumwave]

30 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

You can pick 4 years out of 10, and you forget the wall-to-wall warm winters of 11-12, 16-17. We didn't really have any wall-to-wall cold winters in that period except maybe 13-14.

 

Actually using Grits stats you have a pretty good chance of being wrong or right. 9 above normal, 8 below normal...you're just being pessimistic. Again, I was correct in calling your bluff dogmatism. Slice it anyway you want, reality doesn't support it friend.

[stadiumwave]

36 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

You can pick 4 years out of 10, and you forget the wall-to-wall warm winters of 11-12, 16-17. We didn't really have any wall-to-wall cold winters in that period except maybe 13-14.

 

Rarely do we have wall to wall warmth or cold

[WidreMann]

3 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Actually using Grits stats you have a pretty good chance of being wrong or right. 9 above normal, 8 below normal...you're just being pessimistic. Again, I was correct in calling your bluff dogmatism. Slice it anyway you want, reality doesn't support it friend.

Look at my buckets: much more likely to have very warm than very cold.

[stadiumwave]

Just now, WidreMann said:

Look at my buckets: much more likely to have very warm than very cold.

 

Are you calling Grit's stats a lie?

Again, you're just being pessimistic. Subjective, not objective 

[stadiumwave]

7 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Rarely do we have wall to wall warmth or cold

 

Wait a minute, you've inserted "very" when the discussion wsss about above/below normal.....not "very":)

[Buckethead]

Even if we only get small nwf events I'll be happy.   Up until October 2015 I lived in Gaston, SC...so my standards are really low for winter weather.  There's gotta be a reason we have a ski resort in my neighborhood lol.  

On 7/22/2017 at 2:31 PM, Met1985 said:

Hopefully we can see a decent upslope event take place because the last several winters the NW flow snow has been significantly below normal.  We need several cold fronts coming in from the NW and we have lacked that a lot because we'll 70 degrees in the middle of the winter does not cut it. Also one decent size snowstorm for us does not cut it in the mountains either.  We will see. 

 

[jburns]

8 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

Even if we only get small nwf events I'll be happy.   Up until October 2015 I lived in Gaston, SC...so my standards are really low for winter weather.  There's gotta be a reason we have a ski resort in my neighborhood lol.  

 

2

Five reasons just in this photo.

[FlatLander48]

1 hour ago, jburns said:

Five reasons just in this photo.

Those 5 reasons don't stand a chance if this winter is like the last two.

[Met1985]

14 hours ago, Buckethead said:

Even if we only get small nwf events I'll be happy.   Up until October 2015 I lived in Gaston, SC...so my standards are really low for winter weather.  There's gotta be a reason we have a ski resort in my neighborhood lol.  

 

Yeah it has been a rough couple of years with our winters. You will be in for a treat for sure especially coming from SC. 

[griteater]

Confidence is growing that we will see an ENSO neutral winter.  The easterly trade winds near the dateline have been above normal over the past few weeks and SSTs in Nino 3.4 have been falling.  Also, there is no significant warmth in the subsurface waters.  I think it's too early to tell, though, whether the neutral will likely behave a little more like La Nina or a little more like El Nino.

[isohume]

Outlooks issued --> Outlooks bust. Model chasing --> Models bust. Wishcasting -->  Wishcasting busts. Winter grade --> Bust.

[SN_Lover]

summertime trougheness = wintertime ridgeness 

[Cold Rain]

7 hours ago, griteater said:

Confidence is growing that we will see an ENSO neutral winter.  The easterly trade winds near the dateline have been above normal over the past few weeks and SSTs in Nino 3.4 have been falling.  Also, there is no significant warmth in the subsurface waters.  I think it's too early to tell, though, whether the neutral will likely behave a little more like La Nina or a little more like El Nino.

Whichever one is the one that gives us less cold and snow will be what happens.  We'll probably get a modoki neutral with the atmosphere acting like a strong Nina.

[WidreMann]

2 hours ago, SN_Lover said:

summertime trougheness = wintertime ridgeness 

That, at least, would be in favor of a colder winter. It's been pretty ridgy.

[RobbyC]

I live in northern Greenville County, SC in Taylors. My observations over recent years have been that summertime patterns seem to follow into the wintertime. Summertime patterns appear to get established during springtime. 

Here are some years where this has been the case: 

2009-2010
Average-slightly above average Summer temperature-wise (though some places in the South were cooler than average).
Winter was closer to traditional northern-style as every Winter month was below average temperature-wise.  

2011-2012
We had a "BBQ Summer" that year (hottest Summer I lived through).
We pretty much had no Winter.
This was one year where we had no snowfall nor frozen precipitation.

2013-2014:
Cooler than average Summer and wet as all get out
Cold Winter 
Our heating bill that year was quite high.

2014-2015
Somewhat below average Summer temperature-wise with average precipitation
Cold winter particularly in February.
I remember February being quite cold as I often had my heater up on high setting. There more frequent days with lows in 20's/highs in 30's, and it felt more northern style Winter. 

2016-2017
Hotter than average Summer as well as below average precipitation
Warm winter overall (aside from that snow event in January) and below average preciptation.
Because of that snow event, I still felt like we had a Winter. It was more front-loaded; second half was quite warm.

As far as this Summer, June was a little below average temperature-wise, and July may finish at average. Precipitation has been near-average. From watching model presentations of meteorologists James Spann and Joe Cioffi, we have been in this pattern of ridge in the West and trough in the East since, I think, late May. If this pattern goes into Winter, then we could see colder weather along with more winter storms. Troughs begin to be able to dig farther South as we get into the coolers seasons. Because the jet stream is typically further North in Summer, the troughs in July have not dug as far South.  

For the colder Winters:
2009-2010 was in weak-moderate El Nino.
2013-2014 was in Neutral-Enso.
2014-2015 was in weak El Nino. 

2016-2017, and I think, 2011-2012 were warmer than average because those years were presumably dominated by upper ridging in the East. 

[Brick Tamland]

Greg Fishel posted this on Facebook. Let's hope this doesn't mean this winter is going to be like the winter of 05-06. Only got a trace of snow here that winter.

 

24 OF FIRST 27 DAYS OF JULY HAVE HIT 90º OR HIGHER. EVER HAPPEN BEFORE?

 

Yes, but only once, and the parallels with that year are amazing. The all-time record for most number of days at 90º or higher during the month of July is 25 days set in the year 2005. If we hit 90º tomorrow, which is not impossible, we would tie that record. Here are the interesting parallels:

 

First sub 90º day:   2005: July 3 (87)     2017: July 5 (89)

2nd  sub 90º day:   2005: July 18 (86)   2017: July 9 (88)

3rd  sub 90º day:   2005: July 24 (89)   2017: July 18 (89)

4th  sub 90º day:   2005: July 29 (80)  2017: July 29 (??)

5th  sub 90º day:   2005: July 30 (83)  2017: July 30 (??)

6th  sub 90º day:   2005: July 31 (81)   2017: July 31 (??)

 

Notice that the last 3 days of July, 2005 also had a big cool down, just the like one we're anticipating. So the only question is tomorrow. We either fall one short of the record, or tie it. Either way, July of 2005 and July of 2017 are kindred spirits!

[mackerel_sky]

JB says blocking will be a plenty this winter! Book it : Torch fest incoming 

[WidreMann]

CFS is going all in on wall-to-wall warmth.

[mackerel_sky]

10 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

CFS is going all in on wall-to-wall warmth.

Luckily , that models is never right, and will be different the next run

[WidreMann]

17 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Luckily , that models is never right, and will be different the next run

It's not great, but it has been fairly consistent on this for the past month or two, and it's only trended warmer. We'll see what it shows in September.

[SN_Lover]

4 minutes ago, SimeonNC said:

Maybe I'm a big weenie or I'm too naive but I don't think we'll see another wall-to-wall torch. 

It's not. CPC has the magnitude of above normal temps subsiding from now till winter. Might have to wait until Jan-Mar, but i feel good about this winter. 

[raindancewx]

Any of you ever try filtering JJA mean highs by ENSO and then correlating the JJA high to the following DJF? Works remarkably well out here if you pretend every El Nino / Neutral / La Nina lasts July-June. R-squared close to 0.25 for El Nino / Neutral.

The interesting thing here is La Nina hot summers --> cold winters, but in El Nino, Neutral cold summers --> cold winters.

...Just tested this for Charlotte, R-squared is like ~0.134 for Neutral & La Nina JJA mean highs to DF mean highs. For whatever reason the link in El Nino doesn't work (p>0.05).

For 59 non-El Nino years in Charlotte, 1931-32 to 2016-17, P=0.007

DJF Mean High = (JJA Mean High * 0.4893) + (10.666)

It's not a strong relationship, but can say the output is +/- 4.5F of DJF with 95% certainty in non-El Nino years.

[WidreMann]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

Any of you ever try filtering JJA mean highs by ENSO and then correlating the JJA high to the following DJF? Works remarkably well out here if you pretend every El Nino / Neutral / La Nina lasts July-June. R-squared close to 0.25 for El Nino / Neutral.

The interesting thing here is La Nina hot summers --> cold winters, but in El Nino, Neutral cold summers --> cold winters.

...Just tested this for Charlotte, R-squared is like ~0.134 for Neutral & La Nina JJA mean highs to DF mean highs. For whatever reason the link in El Nino doesn't work (p>0.05).

For 59 non-El Nino years in Charlotte, 1931-32 to 2016-17, P=0.007

DJF Mean High = (JJA Mean High * 0.4893) + (10.666)

It's not a strong relationship, but can say the output is +/- 4.5F of DJF with 95% certainty in non-El Nino years.

Does the relationship go the other way? That is, does a hot summer in Nino/Neutral mean a warm winter? That's what we're looking at this year.

[WidreMann]

5 hours ago, SN_Lover said:

It's not. CPC has the magnitude of above normal temps subsiding from now till winter. Might have to wait until Jan-Mar, but i feel good about this winter. 

Of course they do. The certainty goes down that far out. They never have it strongly anything for the upcoming winter until we get much closer.

[ldub23]

On 7/27/2017 at 1:52 PM, Brick Tamland said:

Greg Fishel posted this on Facebook. Let's hope this doesn't mean this winter is going to be like the winter of 05-06. Only got a trace of snow here that winter.

 

24 OF FIRST 27 DAYS OF JULY HAVE HIT 90º OR HIGHER. EVER HAPPEN BEFORE?

 

Yes, but only once, and the parallels with that year are amazing. The all-time record for most number of days at 90º or higher during the month of July is 25 days set in the year 2005. If we hit 90º tomorrow, which is not impossible, we would tie that record. Here are the interesting parallels:

 

First sub 90º day:   2005: July 3 (87)     2017: July 5 (89)

2nd  sub 90º day:   2005: July 18 (86)   2017: July 9 (88)

3rd  sub 90º day:   2005: July 24 (89)   2017: July 18 (89)

4th  sub 90º day:   2005: July 29 (80)  2017: July 29 (??)

5th  sub 90º day:   2005: July 30 (83)  2017: July 30 (??)

6th  sub 90º day:   2005: July 31 (81)   2017: July 31 (??)

 

Notice that the last 3 days of July, 2005 also had a big cool down, just the like one we're anticipating. So the only question is tomorrow. We either fall one short of the record, or tie it. Either way, July of 2005 and July of 2017 are kindred spirits!

Dont think it means anything as this cane season is almost dead so far unlike  2005

[FallsLake]

11 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

Of course they do. The certainty goes down that far out. They never have it strongly anything for the upcoming winter until we get much closer.

CPC does show a lot of warmth from their July 20th release. But they seem to be always be warm with their seasonal forecast. With the new times, equal chances is the best to really hope for.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1

 

[raindancewx]

17 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

Does the relationship go the other way? That is, does a hot summer in Nino/Neutral mean a warm winter? That's what we're looking at this year.

When I looked in Charlotte for El Ninos it gave a flat line, i.e. not predictive. Probably because you get big snow in some El Ninos which erratically can lower temps depending on timing. For Neutrals, you can do the formula I listed for Charlotte, but its not as strong as in my area.

It's the formula, +/- ~4.5F at 95% for Charlotte in Neutrals. So if your mean high is 90F June-Aug 2017 and we have a Neutral, would be 54.7F, +/- 4.5F at 95% certainty. Each degree colder in Summer is worth ~0.5F in winter essentially, but some winters will be out up to 4.5F. The 95% certainty is based on looking at the hindcast errors for the 59 Neutral/La Nina years starting 1931-32.

 

[griteater]

Here are a couple of temperature charts I put together for Charlotte.  Chart on the left is for data since 1879.  Chart on the right is for data since 1950.

The strong (non-super strong) and weak El Ninos show the largest percentage of winter months at least 1 degree below normal, while the super El Ninos and strong La Ninas show the smallest percentage of winter months at least 1 degree below normal, with the rest of the ENSO phases somewhere in between.

For temperature departures, I used a moving climatology base period.  For example, for the winter of 1930-1931, I used the temperature averages from 1901-1930.

For ENSO determination, I used Sep-Nov to Jan-Mar ONI from Eric Webb's ENSO Ensemble ONI - http://weatheradvance.com/home/weather/weatheradvance.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Ensemble-Oceanic-NINO-Index-ENS-ONI-Raw-Data-1865-522017.txt