Brick Tamland Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 19 hours ago, FallsLake said: Here's the latest Brazilian model for Atlanta. Shows a little snow ~ XMAS, then sporadic light events through winter. **Again just the messenger, I don't put much stock in these models (especially the Brazilian). Nothing like seeing a good Brazilian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 23 hours ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Getting a feeling that the easterly QBO is going to play more of a part in our winter than previously thought. This coupled with La-Nina could spell a good winter for the east. Just have to see how strong the Nina gets. I agree on the QBO, but it's the -QBO's effect on the AO/NAO that ultimately could be the deciding factor IMO. Just like the -EPO saved us the last few years, I think the -QBO's effect on getting us blocking could help us this year. Signs are starting to show up. But the blocking showing up could just be a passing blip and by the time late December rolls around (my true expectation of when winter weather starts in CLT), we could have a massive blue vortex of doom at the north pole. I have no idea at this point. It's just nice to have a hope of blocking up north when the kids are actually in school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 EEP levels dropping with the solar wind now,for only the 2nd time this year and the first since July it has dipped below 6 on the Mev Electron fluence table to about 5.5.Another strong signal if you believe science and research concerning NAO.Have to see if it stays persistant though. 7 straight spotless days now,solar wind running low at 380 km/s for the month and around 430 km/s over 40 days. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Upcoming pattern does look like Nov 62...good omen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 1 hour ago, packbacker said: Upcoming pattern does look like Nov 62...good omen? A big ice storm in Charlotte on Christmas Day 1962. It started as snow and sleet before transitioning to freezing rain across the Northern Piedmont of North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 QBO is a big plus for this winter, disregarding enso type the QBO analogs look good on 500mb anomaly maps. Feel like were gonna have a shot at a couple storms this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 9 hours ago, SnowNiner said: I agree on the QBO, but it's the -QBO's effect on the AO/NAO that ultimately could be the deciding factor IMO. Just like the -EPO saved us the last few years, I think the -QBO's effect on getting us blocking could help us this year. Signs are starting to show up. But the blocking showing up could just be a passing blip and by the time late December rolls around (my true expectation of when winter weather starts in CLT), we could have a massive blue vortex of doom at the north pole. I have no idea at this point. It's just nice to have a hope of blocking up north when the kids are actually in school. That might be good for the sea ice. Honestly, getting that to recover, and a decrease in the incredibly warm SSTs, could lead to better winters down the road. We dodged a bullet this summer, and I hope we can capitalize on that with a solid recovery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 Gotta say, seeing this consistently in the long range is encourging (i.e. actual, real, true blocking signals). The past 3 years have been otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 1 hour ago, HKY1894 said: QBO is a big plus for this winter, disregarding enso type the QBO analogs look good on 500mb anomaly maps. Feel like were gonna have a shot at a couple storms this winter. If ENSO stays weak/neutral, the QBO can shine. Again, I'm encouraged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 20 minutes ago, Wow said: Gotta say, seeing this consistently in the long range is encourging (i.e. actual, real, true blocking signals). The past 3 years have been otherwise. 12z Euro? Wouldn't get too excited about that because it's an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, WidreMann said: 12z Euro? Wouldn't get too excited about that because it's an outlier. Nope, 18z GFS (and pretty much every other GFS run today)... The strong blocking signal over Greenland has been pretty consistent the past couple of days. Still a ways out but given the pattern so far this month, I think it's looking better. BTW, greatly enjoyed my high of 45 with rain today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 45 minutes ago, Wow said: Gotta say, seeing this consistently in the long range is encourging (i.e. actual, real, true blocking signals). The past 3 years have been otherwise. Sucks how we never get coldest air on earth on our side of the world! This map is perfect example of how it will look all winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 21 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Sucks how we never get coldest air on earth on our side of the world! This map is perfect example of how it will look all winter! Just focus on the blocking.. It's November dude. But to satisfy you eye candy for the day, look at the CFS for January! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 24 minutes ago, Wow said: Just focus on the blocking.. It's November dude. But to satisfy you eye candy for the day, look at the CFS for January! -8 Celsius, wow. Wonder how long it's been since we had a month like that. Too bad that will never verify, you sure that wasn't put out by the DGEX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 50 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Sucks how we never get coldest air on earth on our side of the world! This map is perfect example of how it will look all winter! Yeah but Siberia already has snowpack, and is typically colder anyway. I do notice the cold Alaska though, which often results in torching here but the Greenland block really pushes that colder dome SE. Now if we can get this look late Dec thru Mid March with a string of Miller A's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 9 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: -8 Celsius, wow. Wonder how long it's been since we had a month like that. Too bad that will never verify, you sure that wasn't put out by the DGEX? I think it's JBs Brazillian model! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BK Rambler Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 10 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: -8 Celsius, wow. Wonder how long it's been since we had a month like that. Too bad that will never verify, you sure that wasn't put out by the DGEX? -8C would break the all time coldest January of 1977 in ATL, CLT and RDU. Records are made to be broken right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 11 hours ago, BK Rambler said: -8C would break the all time coldest January of 1977 in ATL, CLT and RDU. Records are made to be broken right? I can say with a fair amount of certainty ...... The departures from normal won't happen. However, the pattern depicted, might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 On 11/9/2017 at 8:43 AM, mackerel_sky said: I think it's JBs Brazillian model! No mack it's called the "Wooly worm effect" from the almost solid black wooly worm I saw late August influencing the long range models... ALL HAIL KING WOOLY!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 CFS 12z run showing a fantasy storm 11 days out..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 If all the cold air dumps into Southern Plains, while we bask in the SE ridge, like 12 z GFS, it's gonna blow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 9 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: If all the cold air dumps into Southern Plains, while we bask in the SE ridge, like 12 z GFS, it's gonna blow I see a lot of problems with the pattern, but a SE ridge isn't one of them, on any of the models really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 In any case, the 00z GFS has already reversed what the 12z GFS had in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 The new JAMSTEC run is looking way better than last months run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 Past 5 -enso’s with BN temps for Nov in the east. 12/13 sucked down here but had a couple of light events. Others were good though. Pattern matches up well with how this Nov will end up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 Here is an interesting read while we wait for winter. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/great-appalachian-snowstorm-november-1950 From November 22 to 30, 1950, a slow-moving, powerful storm system dumped heavy snow across much of the central Appalachians. Known as “The Great Appalachian Storm of 1950,” the storm blanketed areas from western Pennsylvania southward deep into West Virginia with over 30 inches of snow. Several locations even received more than 50 inches of snow. Coburn Creek, West Virginia, reported the greatest snowfall total—a staggering 62 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 12 minutes ago, jburns said: Here is an interesting read while we wait for winter. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/great-appalachian-snowstorm-november-1950 From November 22 to 30, 1950, a slow-moving, powerful storm system dumped heavy snow across much of the central Appalachians. Known as “The Great Appalachian Storm of 1950,” the storm blanketed areas from western Pennsylvania southward deep into West Virginia with over 30 inches of snow. Several locations even received more than 50 inches of snow. Coburn Creek, West Virginia, reported the greatest snowfall total—a staggering 62 inches. That was a crazy storm. Surface low retrograded from the east coast toward Ohio/Michigan. I put together this 500 mb loop a few years ago for a thread in my subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 Question (and this is not to get the "Global Warming War" started): What are the chances of these storms from the 40s, 50s, 60s, (even the 90s) repeating with the increase in temps? I love reading about them, and I love learning, and I sometimes wonder if they are even a possibility any more. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 Well this winter is supposed to be Frontloaded, and the pattern looks like doo doo until atleast mid December! tic toc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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