NC_hailstorm Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 -Solar In my opinion drives the NAO,shown here http://www.issibern.ch/teams/interplanetarydisturb/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Mursula_03_2014.pdf Solar wind and EEP levels are critical to NAO,the October average on solar wind comes in at 438.5 km/s,a much lower number of 532.4 km/s in September.The September blowup was unusual seeing we are in the declining period of Solar Cycle 24 but the October number is closer to the late spring/summer numbers.Also the top two biggest flares and 3 of the top 12 on the entire cycle happened in early September so that's in the last 7 years.The sun is very volatile and unpredictable so anyone who says they can forecast it accurate is probably lying.EEP levels are running around 7.5 over the last 3 months or so. In my opinion,I think you need a number around 400 km/s or lower on solar wind and a number around 5.5 to 6 on the 2 MEV Electron Fluence to get a good -NAO signal.2009-2010 is a perfect example of what you're looking for and we all know what happened that winter,shown here http://www.solen.info/solar/old_reports/2010/february/solwind.html -QBO is running -15.28 at last check,great shape for blocking if the solar can improve.slightly.-QBO at 30hpa is a good signal for blocking and it's almost identical to the 2009-2010 number. -ENSO weak,moderate LNina predicted.Not the greatest for the SE I think we are going to have a battle getting any heights in Alaska/west coast there's usually deep low/trofing there in the setups. -MJO So far the MJO has progressed through the La Nina setup and has stayed fairly strong.If the convection can make it to the dateline it will help fight off La Mina conditions,promoting higher heights in Alaska,west coast.A raging or stalling phase in 4,5,6,0r 7 wont be good. -SSW have to be strong and persistent to have a big influence,So far PV isn't real strong id say average as is the temps.PV has been displaced a little so just have to watch. Bout all I got on this subject,carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 This time of year one of the things we look for is how the northern areas are progressing in terms of snow and cold. For the next two weeks a good part of Canada will stay below freezing (even parts of extreme N. US). This will allow for snow build up; which will enhance the cold build up. (going out on a limb) Just interpreting the current models and indices, it would look like we could get a dumb of cold air around Thanksgiving. But that's just me thinking the indices are moving in a favorable direction and the current LR models pattern depictions. Here's the next 10 days of total snow (a lot of this will stay around with the cold air noted above): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 Global temperatures are rising this fall at an alarming rate. I'm not sure that the old analog method and index method is going to matter anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 Yay! /s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 21 hours ago, WidreMann said: Global temperatures are rising this fall at an alarming rate. I'm not sure that the old analog method and index method is going to matter anymore. I have to agree. 30 year averages we use seem to be a joke nowadays. A" cool or cold " month is about average and all the others are above. We get a cool down for 2-4 days then it's right back to above to well above for weeks sometimes. This has been the case for years and seems to be getting progressively worse. We can still score a snow; I've been lucky the past couple years to see a pretty snow, but it's getting harder and more isolated. I think accurate predictions are going to be harder to come by, as will below "normal" temps. This is the new normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 This winter does not feel tourchy. Maybe it's wishcasting, but something tells me warm seasonal forecasts will bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 2 hours ago, SN_Lover said: This winter does not feel tourchy. Maybe it's wishcasting, but something tells me warm seasonal forecasts will bust. Well the fall certainly has. 70s with Dps in 60s in Nov! At least it finally looks like fall, leaves are beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 28 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: Well the fall certainly has. 70s with Dps in 60s in Nov! At least it finally looks like fall, leaves are beautiful. Rather throw Oct and Nov in the trash for a glory Dec and JAN XD The leaves are really nice though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 On 10/31/2017 at 8:31 PM, BIG FROSTY said: I'm liking the Pioneer Model change of heart!! The Pioneer which includes ENSO,ocean warm and cold pools and ocean oscillations, solar and QBO shows a cold winter for all but the southwest. New CFS run looks slightly similiar to the Pioneer Model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 7 hours ago, SN_Lover said: Rather throw Oct and Nov in the trash for a glory Dec and JAN XD The leaves are really nice though! I would too IF Dec and Jan ACTUALLY were glorious. But we know how that usually goes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 6 hours ago, SimeonNC said: Idk about you but this "torch" for my area is forecasted to end Tuesday according to TWC. Meh, looks pretty seasonable, maybe a hair below. We'll see, maybe we'll get some cold spells this year. Odds say most above I 20 will get at least some snow and I 85 crew should have at least a shot or two, even in a bad winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 ENSO is still neutral NAO has better chances going negative this year PNA and AO is on the fence PDO has better chances going positive Feeling good going into this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 November is looking better in the long range with the latest GFS runs. Trying to build a 50/50 low/SE Canada vortex after mid-month which will would give us a locked-in HP overhead, keeping temps at or below avg. 12z GFS then really building off of it with Greenland blocking and keeping heights low over SE Canada & N Atlantic. As long as NOV doesn't torch, I'm still feeling optimistic about the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 14 minutes ago, Wow said: November is looking better in the long range with the latest GFS runs. Trying to build a 50/50 low/SE Canada vortex after mid-month which will would give us a locked-in HP overhead, keeping temps at or below avg. 12z GFS then really building off of it with Greenland blocking and keeping heights low over SE Canada & N Atlantic. As long as NOV doesn't torch, I'm still feeling optimistic about the winter. Been noticing the same. Very encouraging LR trends showing up on models as we roll through second half Nov. Kickoff Dec 1st is fast approaching and time to zero in on trends to see if we can get the table set right and get off to a good start for a change. Lot funner chasing/ tracking storms in Dec as opposed to LR patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 CFS has also cooled considerably in its weeklies. Of course, these are highly variable, so I put little stock in them. Still, I'd rather see that than big warming trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 The more I look at it, the more I'm convinced that Nino 1.2 temperatures (not departures) are pretty key to temperature anomalies in the East. Here is November so far, in years when Nino 1.2 is 20.0C-20.4C in October. It was 20.2C in October 2017: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 5th straight spotless day now,73 in total. Solar wind very low starting off in November 373.2 km/s,429 km/s over the last 40 days or so trending down.Slight drop on EEP levels,closer to 7 lately. QBO coming in at -16.79,almost identical to January 2010 (-16.02) Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 17 hours ago, raindancewx said: The more I look at it, the more I'm convinced that Nino 1.2 temperatures (not departures) are pretty key to temperature anomalies in the East. Here is November so far, in years when Nino 1.2 is 20.0C-20.4C in October. It was 20.2C in October 2017: Not exactly a stellar set of years for us. Also, November 1996 was pretty cold, same with 2013. While we may not torch like the climate models were saying, I think it'll hard to be better than about average (which, by the way, we also were last year and that did not turn out well for the following winter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 On 11/6/2017 at 3:02 AM, raindancewx said: The more I look at it, the more I'm convinced that Nino 1.2 temperatures (not departures) are pretty key to temperature anomalies in the East. Here is November so far, in years when Nino 1.2 is 20.0C-20.4C in October. It was 20.2C in October 2017: November is in hopes of equaling itself out here in the next week or two, as up in VA anyhow we have forecasted temps in the middle-upper 40s coming up here for the next couple of days. I myself have a good feeling about this winter, as SN Lover and WOW had mentioned. I just feel like with the building of that snow pack and the mention of 50/50 low showing up already, it has positive elements to it already, whereas last year was a disaster and I believe ROA literally had one 5'' snow storm. Cheers to Snow, ICE or whatever frozen variety mother nature wants to give us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 From JB Twitter: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, FallsLake said: From JB Twitter: Meh. I thought the CFS was best on the last couple of days in the month. This will change a lot I think. I hope I'm wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Meh. I thought the CFS was best on the last couple of days in the month. This will change a lot I think. I hope I'm wrong though. I hope you're right and it changes colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Met1985 said: Meh. I thought the CFS was best on the last couple of days in the month. This will change a lot I think. I hope I'm wrong though. I agree. Just the messenger. I really don't hold much confidence in any model; especially monthly outputs. But, I would rather see a cold look than a warm look. Just tells us things aren't set in stone for this upcoming winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, FallsLake said: I agree. Just the messenger. I really don't hold much confidence in any model; especially monthly outputs. But, I would rather see a cold look than a warm look. Just tells us things aren't set in stone for this upcoming winter. Oh I know. I hope we actually get a decent December this year. It would be great if blocking truly showed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Robert isn't letting up any time soon..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Getting a feeling that the easterly QBO is going to play more of a part in our winter than previously thought. This coupled with La-Nina could spell a good winter for the east. Just have to see how strong the Nina gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Here's the latest Brazilian model for Atlanta. Shows a little snow ~ XMAS, then sporadic light events through winter. **Again just the messenger, I don't put much stock in these models (especially the Brazilian). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 31 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Here's the latest Brazilian model for Atlanta. Shows a little snow ~ XMAS, then sporadic light events through winter. **Again just the messenger, I don't put much stock in these models (especially the Brazilian). I love a good Brazillian! JB just threw up the 09/10 analog for this coming winter!! Guess he's off the warm train! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 3 hours ago, FallsLake said: Here's the latest Brazilian model for Atlanta. Shows a little snow ~ XMAS, then sporadic light events through winter. **Again just the messenger, I don't put much stock in these models (especially the Brazilian). Can i have the link for that model ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 19 minutes ago, shahroz98 said: Can i have the link for that model ? Here you go: http://previsaonumerica.cptec.inpe.br/~rpnum/meteogramas/meteo_acopladot062.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.