Winter 17-18 Speculation

[FallsLake]

13 hours ago, Brick Tamland said:

I think we either stay warm and dry all winter, or it goes to the other extreme and is cold and with lots of winter storm chances. We just don't seem to get anything in between or "normal" anymore. And when a pattern like this locks on for so long it seems it takes the exact opposite extreme to change it. 

Looking at some of our past winters, and I'm not sure if average (per snow amounts) is normal. We average by extremes.

  http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter_wx/database.php?location_county=&StartYear=1969&StartMonth=01&StartDay=1&EndYear=2015&EndMonth=08&EndDay=1&Submit=Submit&page=1

 

[LithiaWx]

Completely gut feeling and antedoetal....

 

I’m still positive about how this winter turns out.  I really believe all said and done we will all be at or above normal snowfall. 

 

Im usually not bullish on winter in the south but as some have said it only takes one or two storms to make or break a winter season for us.  I don’t see a wall to wall cold winter but I believe opportunities and windows will open along the way. 

[Cold Rain]

1 hour ago, LithiaWx said:

Completely gut feeling and antedoetal....

 

I’m still positive about how this winter turns out.  I really believe all said and done we will all be at or above normal snowfall. 

 

Im usually not bullish on winter in the south but as some have said it only takes one or two storms to make or break a winter season for us.  I don’t see a wall to wall cold winter but I believe opportunities and windows will open along the way. 

Martin Armstrong says this winter will be cold in the US.  So you got that going for ya.

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

Martin Armstrong says this winter will be cold in the US.  So you got that going for ya.

Robert at Wxsouth still very optimism on this coming winter. Sure hope he's right. 

[LovingGulfLows]

They were very optimistic last winter too and outside of a few places in NC and SC, it was a dud.

[mackerel_sky]

28 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

Robert at Wxsouth still very optimism on this coming winter. Sure hope he's right. 

Yes he is! Saying he's expecting winter storms to start showing up around here in 6-8 weeks!!  Good times ahead! F the backloaded winters, let's rock!

[griteater]

28 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Yes he is! Saying he's expecting winter storms to start showing up around here in 6-8 weeks!!  Good times ahead! F the backloaded winters, let's rock!

Lol Mack, your winter hasn't been frontloaded, backloaded, or sideloaded since 1988 ❄️

[snowlover91]

2 hours ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

Robert at Wxsouth still very optimism on this coming winter. Sure hope he's right. 

I like Robert... but he has a tendency to but way too bullish on winter patterns and snow chances too. I’d love for it to verify but when you look at how things are seeing up it looks like mid-December to mid-January could be the best period of blocking/cold across the SE. 

[mackerel_sky]

6 hours ago, griteater said:

Lol Mack, your winter hasn't been frontloaded, backloaded, or sideloaded since 1988 ❄️

As Cold Rain would say: True story!

But Jan 88, will always be my equivalent to Bricks Jan 2000! One can dream

[SnowNiner]

15 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

Martin Armstrong says this winter will be cold in the US.  So you got that going for ya.

Going to Google, never heard of him before....

I don't know.  I think I'm in the "we're due" group I in regard to the -NAO.  Due to the favorable QBO state my hope is we get a decent period of blocking.  If we do I think we get a pretty decent winter. Heck, last few winters have been on FIRE with no blocking and CLT still scored at least a nice snow/sleet event each year.  No pessimistic at all, not excited, but I think there's potential for a good winter.  

[mackerel_sky]

13 hours ago, griteater said:

Lol Mack, your winter hasn't been frontloaded, backloaded, or sideloaded since 1988 ❄️

I've been rear ended by about the last 5 winters!

[NCSNOW]

Just how important is a -NAO during La nina?

 

Pattern Interactions

Global patterns do not occur independently; they occur on overlapping timescales, and have important interactions that can magnify or diminish the effects of an individual pattern. 

For example, the warm (positive) phase of the ENSO cycle, better known as El Niño, typically results in a more active southern jet stream, which ultimately leads to increased precipitation across the southeastern U.S. during the winter. When a negative NAO is in place during an El Niño winter, cold, Arctic air is transported towards the southeastern U.S. with enhanced precipitation potential due to the El Niño effect, and research at the SCO has found that the number of snow days in NC increase significantly in all four winter months. 

The chart below shows the average number of snow days (with ≥1 inch of snow) in central and eastern NC, broken down by NAO and ENSO phase. 
 

Our results found that a negative NAO combined with a positive ENSO phase (El Niño) resulted in the most snow days on average, with an increase of 25% (or more) in snow days for all four winter months. 

A positive NAO combined with a negative ENSO (La Niña) resulted in the greatest decrease in average snow days. This is due to a lack of cold air (results of a typical positive NAO), and less active subtropical jet stream (results of a typical La Niña). 

NAO had the most significant impact on snow days. Even in winter months that featured La Niña conditions (typically warm and dry), combined with a negative NAO, only February saw a decrease in snow days, which suggests that the NAO has a more direct influence on NC snowfall than ENSO. The reason behind this is that the NAO directly impacts the large scale atmospheric pattern over the eastern U.S. on a daily timescale, whereas the ENSO pattern indirectly effects the eastern U.S. atmospheric pattern by altering global circulations, and does so on monthly to seasonal timescales.

[Bob Chill]

47 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Going to Google, never heard of him before....

I don't know.  I think I'm in the "we're due" group I in regard to the -NAO.  Due to the favorable QBO state my hope is we get a decent period of blocking.  If we do I think we get a pretty decent winter. Heck, last few winters have been on FIRE with no blocking and CLT still scored at least a nice snow/sleet event each year.  No pessimistic at all, not excited, but I think there's potential for a good winter.  

It can't be raging positive forever....can it...? lol

88-94 was a 7 year stretch with few winter exceptions to a +NAO so we're not quite in "unprecedented" territory. This year would be #7 in a row if it breaks the wrong way. 

Doesn't have to be all or none though. We've had a big run of some pretty stout anti-blocking. Even if this year doesn't have a raging red or blue ball of AN or BN heights over GL, it can still be cooperative at times. The NAO is inherently volatile so we should probably pay more attention to the AO. In my yard, good snow years correlate best with -AO years and vice versa. The AO is usually a much more stable feature one way or the other than the NAO. Both indices share some of the same domain space so strong -AO winters usually have a -NAO. I dug up some old data on -AO/+AO winters for my area. One of you stat heads should fill in the blanks for snowfall in the SE. 

When anomalous, the December mean AO is probably one of the most reliable indicators in how winter is going to shake out IRT blocking around the pole. A strong -AO in Dec almost always = an average -AO for DJF and vice versa. My data hasn't been updated since 2013 so there are some new additions to the +AO list. Oddly, 3 out of 4 went above climo for snowfall in DC. Seems counter intuitive honestly but chaos can override anything. The -EPO in 13-14 and 14-15 meant serious business and pretty much overwhelmed the NH pattern for most of those 2 winters. However, this data is still pretty good.

List of Dec -AO that came in -1.25 lower and corresponding snowfall @ DCA. 8 out of the 18 went AN snow and 13 still managed double digits (DC climo is 15"). The average of all 18 years is 19.5+/- so well above climo on average for the anomalous -AO Decembers. 

 

The +AO Decembers have a few decent ones in the mix but overall it paints a grim picture for the MA. It's no surprise that the good winters on this list had months with a -AO. The vast majority of the snowfall on this list occurred during the months that had a -AO so it still supports the importance of a -AO for MA snowfall.

 

 

I'm curious about how the years on this list shake out for a city like Raleigh or Charlotte. 

 

[griteater]

^ Bob, on the topic of AO/NAO, here recently, I like using an average of the 2.  The months/winters when (AO + NAO) / 2 averages big negative, we like.

 

Regarding your years in the charts, here are the snow numbers for Asheville, Charlotte, Raleigh...

 

Dec-Mar snow avg for years when December has solid -AO

Asheville: 14.7

Charlotte: 4.3

Raleigh: 6.0

 

Dec-Mar snow avg for years when December has solid +AO

Asheville: 8.9

Charlotte: 4.4

Raleigh: 6.3

 

Asheville is similar to DC.  Asheville likes El Ninos and -NAO winters.  Charlotte and Raleigh snow is obviously much more random

[Bob Chill]

Interesting. Thanks Grit!

[FLweather]

First of all. Not trying to hype things. What future implications it has is yet to be determined. I've been watching water vapor images recently(since Irma). Also been watching model runs too. But one thing I've noticed is possibly a lobe of the PV setting up around around Hudson bay in Canada. That's my opinion. But just looking at LR models to me seems like a lobe of the PV trying to set up around there. If that's the case would support the fact of West coast ridge. East coast trough even though the mixed signals of enso. But still early on. But what catches my eye the most is in Canada.

[FallsLake]

7 hours ago, FLweather said:

First of all. Not trying to hype things. What future implications it has is yet to be determined. I've been watching water vapor images recently(since Irma). Also been watching model runs too. But one thing I've noticed is possibly a lobe of the PV setting up around around Hudson bay in Canada. That's my opinion. But just looking at LR models to me seems like a lobe of the PV trying to set up around there. If that's the case would support the fact of West coast ridge. East coast trough even though the mixed signals of enso. But still early on. But what catches my eye the most is in Canada.

The old Hudson Bay low. Hasn't been much talk about that in recent years. I guess we focus on the indices. But I use to look for that on weather maps to signal a chance of an eastern trough.   

[mackerel_sky]

8 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

The old Hudson Bay low. Hasn't been much talk about that in recent years. I guess we focus on the indices. But I use to look for that on weather maps to signal a chance of an eastern trough.   

I'm focused on the upcoming Jan of '18! Yes ladies and gents, that will be the 30 year anniversary of the greatest snowstorms of all time, my favorite winter storm of all time !!! Jan 7 of 1988! Expect big things!

[FallsLake]

9 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I'm focused on the upcoming Jan of '18! Yes ladies and gents, that will be the 30 year anniversary of the greatest snowstorms of all time, my favorite winter storm of all time !!! Jan 7 of 1988! Expect big things!

This is only for NC, but you can see the heaver amounts extending into your area:

 

[Upstate Tiger]

28 minutes ago, avalanche said:

I lived in Chatham County at that time as a 7th grader, and it was the biggest snowstorm I had ever seen at that point, and to this day is only eclipsed by the Jan. 2000 crusher. Had no idea at the time that the totals increased to our SW. Just knew Chatham and Wake got rocked. If I remember correctly, it came as a surprise as I don't recall much coverage of it prior to the event, but I could be wrong. Does anyone older than me (42y) remember if this event was forecasted in advance or not?

I was in college in 1988 and yes this event was forecast days in advance.  Charlie Gertz at local Greenville, SC NBC affiliate began to mention the possibility on Monday of that week.  The storm actually started after midnight on Wednesday.  You may be thinking of the winter storm that hit one year earlier that was similar in magnitude.  It wasn't forecast at all until one day before.  It was quite a surprise that Monday afternoon when I arrived at the gym and heard the forecast come over the radio.  I will never forget the words "snow, becoming heavy at times tomorrow night, snow, heavy at times on Wednesday."  

[NCSNOW]

1 hour ago, avalanche said:

I lived in Chatham County at that time as a 7th grader, and it was the biggest snowstorm I had ever seen at that point, and to this day is only eclipsed by the Jan. 2000 crusher. Had no idea at the time that the totals increased to our SW. Just knew Chatham and Wake got rocked. If I remember correctly, it came as a surprise as I don't recall much coverage of it prior to the event, but I could be wrong. Does anyone older than me (42y) remember if this event was forecasted in advance or not?

I remember it very well. Was a Murphy to Manteo storm (M&M storm). Very cold storm and the flakes where dry not your usual wet big fatties. Was well advertised by pre internet standards. I was in college. Living down east and had to drive back to the Whee a few days latter. whole trip was white ground felt like I had driving up north somewhere. Anyway the M&M storms are not common and weve had several others to top this in my lifetime and opinion. 

[Cold Rain]

21 hours ago, SnowNiner said:

Going to Google, never heard of him before....

I don't know.  I think I'm in the "we're due" group I in regard to the -NAO.  Due to the favorable QBO state my hope is we get a decent period of blocking.  If we do I think we get a pretty decent winter. Heck, last few winters have been on FIRE with no blocking and CLT still scored at least a nice snow/sleet event each year.  No pessimistic at all, not excited, but I think there's potential for a good winter.  

Armstrongeconomics.com is his website.  He's essentially an economist that runs proprietary models to predict cycles in virtually every arena from politics to markets to capital flows to sentiment to climate.  He usually takes the anti-establishment view on things.  He had an article the other day about the climate turning colder from here into 2030s, while the mainstream is expecting warming.  For example, he sees the US being colder this year, whereas it seems the consensus is calling for warmer.  I sort of made the post above in jest, but that's what his model is predicting.  He usually does a good job with his economic and political forecasts.  We'll see how well his weather/climate model performs....

[No snow for you]

14 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Armstrongeconomics.com is his website.  He's essentially an economist that runs proprietary models to predict cycles in virtually every arena from politics to markets to capital flows to sentiment to climate.  He usually takes the anti-establishment view on things.  He had an article the other day about the climate turning colder from here into 2030s, while the mainstream is expecting warming.  For example, he sees the US being colder this year, whereas it seems the consensus is calling for warmer.  I sort of made the post above in jest, but that's what his model is predicting.  He usually does a good job with his economic and political forecasts.  We'll see how well his weather/climate model performs....

His models even predict earthquakes. It's a pretty cool model. 

[SnowNiner]

4 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

Armstrongeconomics.com is his website.  He's essentially an economist that runs proprietary models to predict cycles in virtually every arena from politics to markets to capital flows to sentiment to climate.  He usually takes the anti-establishment view on things.  He had an article the other day about the climate turning colder from here into 2030s, while the mainstream is expecting warming.  For example, he sees the US being colder this year, whereas it seems the consensus is calling for warmer.  I sort of made the post above in jest, but that's what his model is predicting.  He usually does a good job with his economic and political forecasts.  We'll see how well his weather/climate model performs....

Thanks, yeah I took a look at his blog.  It was kind of intense, me against the world kind of thing (I think he and JB would get along well).  He just said it was going to be colder and I didn't see much rationale. Hope he's right.  I'll take normal at this point. 

[nrgjeff]

He might be going with the solar cycle if he is going colder. 

On 10/25/2017 at 9:30 AM, Cold Rain said:

Armstrongeconomics.com is his website.  ...For example, he sees the US being colder this year, whereas it seems the consensus is calling for warmer...

Interesting he does not say why he is colder. A Maunder type solar min (deeper and longer than Dalton) might push a colder regime. Dalton type, which is more likely, would probably be neutral. For non-minimum forecasts, see the climate change forum.

For this winter, I am still favor a dominant mild pattern with secondary brief cold shots. Should be colder than the last two but still AN. 

[Cold Rain]

22 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

He might be going with the solar cycle if he is going colder. 

Interesting he does not say why he is colder. A Maunder type solar min (deeper and longer than Dalton) might push a colder regime. Dalton type, which is more likely, would probably be neutral. For non-minimum forecasts, see the climate change forum.

For this winter, I am still favor a dominant mild pattern with secondary brief cold shots. Should be colder than the last two but still AN. 

That particular blog post doesn't give much rationale.  Previously, he's mentioned the quieting sun as well as the effects of climate change being opposite of the mainstream consensus of a warmer planet.  He also incorporates the magnetic pole shift and believes that is playing a role as it migrates.  He doesn't really describe the process, but his cycle models show the climate cooling into 2030.  And according to what he has relayed, it will cool drastically, to the point that food shortages will become widespread and population migration will take place.  Who knows...it's a pretty contrarian viewpoint.

[No snow for you]

28 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

That particular blog post doesn't give much rationale.  Previously, he's mentioned the quieting sun as well as the effects of climate change being opposite of the mainstream consensus of a warmer planet.  He also incorporates the magnetic pole shift and believes that is playing a role as it migrates.  He doesn't really describe the process, but his cycle models show the climate cooling into 2030.  And according to what he has relayed, it will cool drastically, to the point that food shortages will become widespread and population migration will take place.  Who knows...it's a pretty contrarian viewpoint.

He also talks about the Polls flipping and maybe the North Poll moving closer to Europe. That is his thoughts though. 

[LithiaWx]

27 minutes ago, No snow for you said:

He also talks about the Polls flipping and maybe the North Poll moving closer to Europe. That is his thoughts though. 

The pole flipping scenario is a legit concern.  Studies of ocean floor show that the poles have fliped many, many times over millions of years.  When the best one happens is a huge question mark. 

[Steven_1974]

17 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

The pole flipping scenario is a legit concern.  Studies of ocean floor show that the poles have fliped many, many times over millions of years.  When the best one happens is a huge question mark. 

That process takes thousands of years though. It's not as if it happens overnight. It's really not that much of a concern.

[nrgjeff]

Research shows little/no evidence that pole flips impact climate or even allow more solar/space radiation flux. So, it is low on my list of concerns. However power grids and electronics could be impacted. On the plus side, a mid-latitude pole would allow more aurora viewing...

Watch the solar cycle and energy received from the sun. Oh I'm very skeptical of a cold enough climate shift to crush agriculture. Sure colder hurts but we have a lot more technology to mitigate even a Maunder minimum. Then of course we have warm risks discussed in the Climate Change Forum. I am not worried about starving. More Southeast skiing would be OK though.