Winter 17-18 Speculation

[griteater]

Top 10 Coldest vs. Warmest -ENSO winters (Negative Neutral and La Ninas), at CLT using departures from a moving 30 yr avg.  North Pacific ridging is more north and east through Alaska in the cold composite...and polar opposites with the AO/NAO over the Arctic and Greenland.

[FallsLake]

11 minutes ago, griteater said:

Top 10 Coldest vs. Warmest -ENSO winters (Negative Neutral and La Ninas), at CLT using departures from a moving 30 yr avg.  North Pacific ridging is more north and east through Alaska in the cold composite...and polar opposites with the AO/NAO over the Arctic and Greenland.

Grit, What did the Fall pattern setups look like for these two categorizations? It would be comforting to see the opposite look; as our current Fall pattern looks like the warm Winter pattern above.  

[Cold Rain]

I am thinking we will not see very many cool east/southeast predictions this winter.  The globe is cooking right now.

[Bob Chill]

I posted something similar in the MA thread not too long ago. I'm more of a visual person than numerical when it comes to this stuff. IMHO- the cold ENSO signal is much weaker visually than it is numerically. 

Check this out. Here's where we are currently:

 

 

^ This is a pretty sorry excuse for a Nina regardless of what the #'s say. Enso forcing in the NH is a very big machine. Right now the motor is very small and there has been pretty much no trend towards strengthening towards a more classic Nina look in the EQ PAC. 

 

I'm seeing more and more references to 07-08 in the forum lately. 07-08 was a strong Nina. We're not even close to resembling anything like that. Check out 07-08 at the same point in time:

 

There's really no comparison imho. 07-08 was far far ahead in October. I'm not saying that a winter similar to 07-08 isn't possible because Nina's in general do certain things well but using it as a primary analog doesn't make much sense at this point. 

 

05-06 bears some resemblance to current enso conditions (and also the PDO region)

 

08-09 isn't very similar. Nina 1-2 is much warmer and a pretty classic -PDO already in place

 

 

 

I'm not sure how sold I am on even getting an official Nina on the books this year. LR guidance seems to favor it but overall it looks pretty weak and short lived. 

 

Most importantly...what does this mean for winter? lol. My total WAG is nina forcing will present but won't be the primary driver for all of DJF. We need to look for things that could overwhelm typical nina conditions in our yards. The elephant is obviously the NAO region. Considering models can't get that right at 2 week leads I'm not sure it's a good use of time trying to read between the lines for the next 4-8 weeks.

Some seasonal guidance is showing a -epo/+pna couplet at times during met winter. This can be friendly to the MA/SE. Could be a season of flip flops with the pna/epo region where we endure several weeks of warmth followed by several weeks of a pattern that "could" do something. Just tossing some ideas out there. I don't see any strong signal in any direction that says we're all fooked or that a big winter is incoming. Once we get towards the end of Nov we can get an early read on the AO/NAO. Raging + in early Dec seems to do a good job saying we're in trouble early. OTOH- a good -AO in early Dec is usually a sign that we are in decent shape (regardless of enso). 

The PDO is in limbo right now. Oct-Dec is a period where the PDO can get bullied around pretty good. As long as we avoid a classic strong -PDO I'm not going to sweat it too much. Of course a +PDO is ideal but cold enso generally doesn't coincide well with a +PDO. 

This is one of those years where we just have to sit on our hands and wait it out before know what button to push. Will it be the panic button or the golden buzzer? Beats me. 

[Cold Rain]

Good post, Bob.  Look at all the yellows/oranges in the NH.  Crazy.  For whatever reason, we have not had good luck getting much in the way of real -NAO help in the last few years.  Hopefully, this year will be different, but it's hard to be overly optimistic about it at this point.  On one hand, it seems illogical to heavily rely on persistence as a hard forecasting tool.  On the other hand, there is a reason that things persist in a certain state, whether we understand it or not.  Fall patterns can and do flip, and I don't think we stay warm all through the winter.  But I would not wager on a lengthy -NAO regime this year either...not until it shows me otherwise.

[FallsLake]

^^Great post Bob. It's like most winters; we have to wait until it starts to see what's being presented.....means model and pattern setup watching in late November and early December.

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Good post, Bob.  Look at all the yellows/oranges in the NH.  Crazy.  For whatever reason, we have not had good luck getting much in the way of real -NAO help in the last few years.  Hopefully, this year will be different, but it's hard to be overly optimistic about it at this point.  On one hand, it seems illogical to heavily rely on persistence as a hard forecasting tool.  On the other hand, there is a reason that things persist in a certain state, whether we understand it or not.  Fall patterns can and do flip, and I don't think we stay warm all through the winter.  But I would not wager on a lengthy -NAO regime this year either...not until it shows me otherwise.

Keep an eye on the ATL off the tip of GL. There has been a consistent cold pool in that region for the last 3 winters. I'm not implying that the BN water temps drive the pattern or anything. Just that the complete lack of blocking + the existence of this cold pool could mean something. It's a chicken/egg argument at best but I don't think completely ignoring it is the way to go. 

We're going to get a big -nao sooner or later. Probably sooner. It can only run + for so long before regressing to the mean. No way to know if it's this year but it's coming. We haven't had a legit -NAO since 10-11. The proverbial WDI is strong. 

[griteater]

1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

Grit, What did the Fall pattern setups look like for these two categorizations? It would be comforting to see the opposite look; as our current Fall pattern looks like the warm Winter pattern above.  

October looks similar for both.  Significant difference over Alaska and the Arctic in November

[griteater]

The QBO is going to be in its most favorable phase for high latitude blocking this winter (front end of the -QBO).  We are trying to move slowly toward solar minimum, but with bumps in the road.  Solar was fairly quiet in May, June, and July.  It became more active in August, and very active in September.  Oct has been very quiet thus far...sun is currently spotless and geomag and solar wind numbers have been weak.  Ideally, the sun goes into hibernation thru winter, but it will likely continue to have flare ups until we get deeper into the minimum.

[FallsLake]

^^^Thanks for the reply above Grit.

We should have less and weaker solar flare ups as we move towards minimum. Of course there's the "talk" that this (or the next) could be one of those grand minimums but I'll leave it at that...

http://spaceweather.com/

  

[WidreMann]

I don't know exactly what's causing the extreme warmth across the globe right now, but whatever it is is going to put a monkey-wrench in any predictions based on traditional indices and patterns. Things are very warm and the patterns are behaving very strangely. We've had two +20 F anomaly days at RDU, after a few other fairly warm days. We're above normal for July. This is incredible warmth and it is sticking around for weeks. It's not just a bad sign for a snowy winter, it's a bad sign for winter at all. I've never seen anything like this, especially after last winter. The only normalish period we had was during the summer. I really honestly believed that we hit a tipping point with SSTs and sea ice and what-not that will result in a very changed look for how weather behaves going forward. It's not going to go back to how it was. Those days are over.

[FallsLake]

31 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

I don't know exactly what's causing the extreme warmth across the globe right now, but whatever it is is going to put a monkey-wrench in any predictions based on traditional indices and patterns. Things are very warm and the patterns are behaving very strangely. We've had two +20 F anomaly days at RDU, after a few other fairly warm days. We're above normal for July. This is incredible warmth and it is sticking around for weeks. It's not just a bad sign for a snowy winter, it's a bad sign for winter at all. I've never seen anything like this, especially after last winter. The only normalish period we had was during the summer. I really honestly believed that we hit a tipping point with SSTs and sea ice and what-not that will result in a very changed look for how weather behaves going forward. It's not going to go back to how it was. Those days are over.

I can't argue about the overall world temps but for our specific area we've just been in a bad pattern. All the major indices have been unfavorable and when you get winds blowing straight out of the south for day after day, it's going to be warm.

For this winter, northern hemisphere snow cover is building nicely. Even our side (Canada) looks to get significant build up during the next couple of weeks. I'm really not sure how things will work out for us(cold & snow wise), but there will be cold air somewhere.  

[Eric]

10 hours ago, griteater said:

October looks similar for both.  Significant difference over Alaska and the Arctic in November

Maybe Charlotte will score a December snowstorm this year like it did in 1973.

[griteater]

11 hours ago, FallsLake said:

I can't argue about the overall world temps but for our specific area we've just been in a bad pattern. All the major indices have been unfavorable and when you get winds blowing straight out of the south for day after day, it's going to be warm.

For this winter, northern hemisphere snow cover is building nicely. Even our side (Canada) looks to get significant build up during the next couple of weeks. I'm really not sure how things will work out for us(cold & snow wise), but there will be cold air somewhere.  

Thus far in October in the 30N to 60N region, mostly cool anomalies have prevailed except in Eastern North America

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, griteater said:

Thus far in October in the 30N to 60N region, mostly cool anomalies have prevailed except in Eastern North America

 

I posted about this yesterday in the MA forum. The conus is in a pretty typical fall pattern that is being driven by the Pac. A persistent trough west/ridge east is fairly common in the fall. It's been pretty wintry in the intermountain west and western Canada while we bask in warmth with the downstream ridge response in the east. These patterns can be stubborn and persistent but it will flip. Probably before the end of the month but that's just a hunch. 

GEFS has been steadfast at building a +PNA and even a possible -EPO down the line. Even if delayed my hunch is it happens eventually because this is a normal progression from where we are now.  With all the snowcover in the Canadian rockies, a +PNA/-EPO couplet would easily build a significant early season cold air mass that would drop into the conus. Might be before halloween. Hard to say because it's still pretty far out there. 

I don't see the warmth in the east as any type of warning sign at all. If the LW pattern sets up like this in Dec it will be a different story. lol

[griteater]

Seasonal model updates for October...

[packbacker]

Octobers of some of the warmest nina winters.  Guess how this Oct started and what model prog's look like.  

 

 

 

[FallsLake]

18 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Octobers of some of the warmest nina winters.  Guess how this Oct started and what model prog's look like.  

 

 

 

Man that's some of our worst years. A couple decent storms in there but also a lot of nothing (snow wise).

http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter_wx/database.php?location_county=&StartYear=1969&StartMonth=01&StartDay=1&EndYear=2015&EndMonth=08&EndDay=1&Submit=Submit&page=1

 

[tarheelwx]

Robert is a bit more optimistic than most everyone on the board. So am I. 

TW

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

On ‎10‎/‎10‎/‎2017 at 9:26 PM, WidreMann said:

I don't know exactly what's causing the extreme warmth across the globe right now, but whatever it is is going to put a monkey-wrench in any predictions based on traditional indices and patterns. Things are very warm and the patterns are behaving very strangely. We've had two +20 F anomaly days at RDU, after a few other fairly warm days. We're above normal for July. This is incredible warmth and it is sticking around for weeks. It's not just a bad sign for a snowy winter, it's a bad sign for winter at all. I've never seen anything like this, especially after last winter. The only normalish period we had was during the summer. I really honestly believed that we hit a tipping point with SSTs and sea ice and what-not that will result in a very changed look for how weather behaves going forward. It's not going to go back to how it was. Those days are over.

The positive anomalies are mainly over the northern hemisphere. You're correct in assuming that the climate will not respond to certain indices as it has in the past. We have seen that in the snow advancement index over the last few years. However, as Bob mentioned, this is not your classic Nina pattern. In my opinion, this winter will hinge on the North Atlantic and the PDO. We can see hints of a cold signal, but it's just too early to make any call concerning the predominant winter pattern.

[raindancewx]

The Western Atlantic is vastly colder than it was at this time last year. That's an important feature that people should focus more on. AMO (whether you use raw temps or anomalies) is a good predictor of winter temperatures for large areas of the USA. The European model (Oct run on their public site) has La Nina conditions only in Nov-Feb now. Expecting a much more variable winter for temperatures nationally, with more major cold and warm spells just about everywhere.

AMO implies the whole country, except maybe Florida should see similar or colder conditions to last year at worst. AMO had a huge drop July-Sept year over year. I'm not expecting cold in the SE, but +1 West (TX to MO) to +4 East (FL), none of the +3 to +7 from last year.

[griteater]

raindance - your map does show that the SSTs are a little cooler in the gulf and off the east coast compared to last year at this time...however, the majority of North Atlantic SSTs are still above normal and the AMO at this link only shows a small drop from last summer/fall...i.e. a drop from +0.4 to +0.3 (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.long.data)

[nrgjeff]

Some of those cool anomalies are churn from hurricanes. Perhaps with the low sun angle it does not recover, but I'd give SSTs a few more weeks before taking it to the bank.

[raindancewx]

I agree its from the hurricanes - but I don't think we're completely done with them either. Do you ever look at the raw, de-trended AMO values? That's why I feel (somewhat) comfortable throwing in certain older (pre-1950) years. 

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.long.mean.data

July-Sept 2017 AMO: 23.393C

July-Sept 2016 AMO: 23.519C

I agree its only the Western Atlantic too. I try to blend the indexes and the visual look of the oceans when I do long-range stuff. Worth noting in raw SSTs we're pretty close to the mid-1940s for the Atlantic, so I threw those years into my outlook.

NOAA has AMO climatology (1951-1980 basis) at 22.87C for July-Sept, so going from +0.65C to +0.52C may only be 0.13C lower, but thats 20% of the anomaly, kind of going from -2.0C to -1.6C or something in an ONI sense, its notable...although probably not so much for your region so my apologies for cluttering this up given the correlation map.

[DC2Winston]

Great to see Mr. Chill posting with us here in SE boards. One of my favorites from the MA forum. Bring us some white-luck this winter! Ease my transition from DC please. 

[Bob Chill]

21 hours ago, CARDC79 said:

Great to see Mr. Chill posting with us here in SE boards. One of my favorites from the MA forum. Bring us some white-luck this winter! Ease my transition from DC please. 

Hey, thanks man! You guys know I always root for you folks in the south. I'm much more of a southerner than northerner or city boy. I drive an American V8 truck and fish a lot. lol. Not trying to stereotype or anything...but you guys know exactly what I mean. haha. 

Lucky is always part of the game. There is no model or analog that accounts for luck and luck plays a significant role in any pattern/setup or whatever.  I'm oddly indifferent this year. Part of it is because last year was an unmitigated disaster in my yard...the kind that's hard to top...and the other part is there's no damn way to know how the important things are going to shake out yet. November will likely throw some head fakes. We'll all over analyze it every way from Sunday but then December will come along and present a whole new set of good signs and/or big problems and we can start the process all over again. 

Personally, I'm pretty much sick of December being a complete waste of a month. I've only had one "acceptable" december (13-14) since 09-10. I'm not even talking snow either. I've worn shorts and flip flops on Xmas more than jackets the last 7 years. I think the MA/SE is due for a cold December. At least at times. Which would fit into ENSO in general. Still a mixed bag in Dec with cold ENSO but there's been enough cold Decembers during ninas that it's not far fetched or baseless to think December could end up being a wintry month in the temp dept. Throw in some lucky snow and we can all party...without shorts and flip flops. 

Some good advice...and advice that I surely won't follow...is to just let everything ride for another 4-5 weeks before forming any strong opinions or thoughts. 

[FallsLake]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Hey, thanks man! You guys know I always root for you folks in the south. I'm much more of a southerner than northerner or city boy. I drive an American V8 truck and fish a lot. lol. Not trying to stereotype or anything...but you guys know exactly what I mean. haha. 

Lucky is always part of the game. There is no model or analog that accounts for luck and luck plays a significant role in any pattern/setup or whatever.  I'm oddly indifferent this year. Part of it is because last year was an unmitigated disaster in my yard...the kind that's hard to top...and the other part is there's no damn way to know how the important things are going to shake out yet. November will likely throw some head fakes. We'll all over analyze it every way from Sunday but then December will come along and present a whole new set of good signs and/or big problems and we can start the process all over again. 

Personally, I'm pretty much sick of December being a complete waste of a month. I've only had one "acceptable" december (13-14) since 09-10. I'm not even talking snow either. I've worn shorts and flip flops on Xmas more than jackets the last 7 years. I think the MA/SE is due for a cold December. At least at times. Which would fit into ENSO in general. Still a mixed bag in Dec with cold ENSO but there's been enough cold Decembers during ninas that it's not far fetched or baseless to think December could end up being a wintry month in the temp dept. Throw in some lucky snow and we can all party...without shorts and flip flops. 

Some good advice...and advice that I surely won't follow...is to just let everything ride for another 4-5 weeks before forming any strong opinions or thoughts. 

It all comes down to how much blocking we can get. It seems with a la nina there's plenty of cold air to our north but the pattern wants to push storms towards the lakes (western trough eastern ridge -- very little blocking); which equates to this years foretasted pattern by CPC. We've had some of our worse winters during a la nina (...like 1" totals).

But, you throw in some blocking and the game can change. With this, We've also had some big years. 

So the question, do we get the blocking. I say we're definitely due....   

[FlatLander48]

I'll tell you one thing, Robert is very bullish on this winter.

[Cold Rain]

10 hours ago, SimeonNC said:

Yeah no kidding, I haven't been following him for long so I don't know whether this is uncharacteristic of him or not. Honestly I somewhat agree with him but I don't think this winter is going to be a "humdinger" imo.

Robert is a good met and and a good guy.  I always look forward to reading his stuff.  He seems to be bullish about 80% of the time.

[Brick Tamland]

On 10/10/2017 at 9:26 PM, WidreMann said:

I don't know exactly what's causing the extreme warmth across the globe right now, but whatever it is is going to put a monkey-wrench in any predictions based on traditional indices and patterns. Things are very warm and the patterns are behaving very strangely. We've had two +20 F anomaly days at RDU, after a few other fairly warm days. We're above normal for July. This is incredible warmth and it is sticking around for weeks. It's not just a bad sign for a snowy winter, it's a bad sign for winter at all. I've never seen anything like this, especially after last winter. The only normalish period we had was during the summer. I really honestly believed that we hit a tipping point with SSTs and sea ice and what-not that will result in a very changed look for how weather behaves going forward. It's not going to go back to how it was. Those days are over.

I have said for the past few years the patterns and indicies we used to look at for certain outcomes doesn't seem to work anymore.