HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 New Day One outlook introduced a 5% tornado area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 5 hours ago, tuanis said: 7 inches and counting. Yard is a running river. House flooded. Hate these setups. PDS flash flood warning for you guys. ILC097-111-121600- /O.CON.KLOT.FF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-170712T1600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Lake IL-McHenry IL- 748 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017 ...THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR Lake and northeastern McHenry counties in Illinois... ...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CDT FOR LAKE AND NORTHEASTERN MCHENRY COUNTIES... At 742 AM CDT, thunderstorms producing very heavy rain were moving across the warned area and will likely cause additional flash flooding and very dangerous travel. Five to eight inches of rain has fallen and additional rainfall amounts of one to three inches are likely in the warned area. This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Lake county and northeastern McHenry county in Illinois. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 5 hours ago, tuanis said: 7 inches and counting. Yard is a running river. House flooded. Hate these setups. Dang... and that's before two more lines of strong storms. I hope it doesn't get too bad for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 This afternoon is looking more and more interesting .UPDATE...(This Afternoon) Issued at 1012 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017 Consolidation of outflow associated with dual lines of convection through se WI/ne IL taking place this morning. Lead extent of downstream outflow into wrn lower MI attm yet will be overtaken by upstream outflow associated with potent MCV progressing through se WI. Net result looks quite favorable for composite boundary to sag sewd across lake MI near term and initiate new convection and/or excite existing festering convection over sw MI by early aftn. Given rapidly destabilization ongoing to the south of these storms and rather robust low level warm advection in place...growing severe/flood threat short term this aftn over nrn IN/srn MI. Will make significant changes to prior grids this aftn to account for above thinking with updates forthcoming later this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 12z NAM looks fantastic for tonight. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Powerball said: 12z NAM looks fantastic for tonight. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 Big plume of rain and storms starting to diminish , getting some minor clearing here ahead of the little bit of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 9 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Big plume of rain and storms starting to diminish , getting some minor clearing here ahead of the little bit of rain. I feel like today would have been a wicked day with more sunshine - looks like we're going to be hard pressed to manage more than a couple of hours of sunshine - likely won't be enough around here for anything substantial. Areas like northern IN/OH look to get rockin' however. Plenty of instability building already with temps into the 80's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: I feel like today would have been a wicked day with more sunshine - looks like we're going to be hard pressed to manage more than a couple of hours of sunshine - likely won't be enough around here for anything substantial. Areas like northern IN/OH look to get rockin' however. Plenty of instability building already with temps into the 80's. Looking at meso, good instability is building into our areas even with the cloud cover, so I'd still expect some good convection later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 We have rivers flowing onto streets and whole roads and parking lots filled with water as well. This has to be one of the worst flooding situations I've seen here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 Day 1 Slight Risk moved further south into Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 1 minute ago, homedis said: We have rivers flowing onto streets and whole roads and parking lots filled with water as well. This has to be one of the worst flooding situations I've seen here. Yikes and a whole new batch of storms is moving toward the metro right now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 ..GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST MULTIPLE STORM CLUSTERS ARE ONGOING FROM LOWER MI WESTWARD TO THE IA/IL/WI BORDER REGION OF THE MS VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY EASTWARD BUT INTO A PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE/INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT. AS SUCH, SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL WITH SPORADIC COVERAGE. A POCKET OF AGGRESSIVE DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING'S CONVECTION. WHILE THE 12Z NAM DEPICTION OF MOISTURE/BUOYANCY IS LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE (MLCAPE REACHING 6000 J/KG) AT PEAK HEATING, STRONG INSTABILITY WITHIN THE NORTHEAST EXTENT OF AN ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER SHOULD YIELD LARGE MLCAPE OF 2500-4000 J/KG. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR A SURFACE CYCLONE OVER WI, THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST, AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OUTGOING CONVECTION. A FEW SUPERCELLS SHOULD FORM, PARTICULARLY OVER WI TOWARDS THE MI/IN BORDER WHERE ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AMID 20-35 KT 850-MB WEST-SOUTHWESTERLIES. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A FEW CLUSTERS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: Yikes and a whole new batch of storms is moving toward the metro right now too. Yeah our whole office building was trapped because there was about 2' of water sitting right outside. Multiple cars flooded in and Dundee Rd (major road) has a whole river flowing into it. Not looking good at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 1 minute ago, homedis said: Yeah our whole office building was trapped because there was about 2' of water sitting right outside. Multiple cars flooded in and Dundee Rd (major road) has a whole river flowing into it. Not looking good at all Yeah that's a state highway, you are talking major to catastrophic flooding there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Stebo said: Yeah that's a state highway, you are talking major to catastrophic flooding there. And WPC is saying "AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF TRAINING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST IOWA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE. MOISTURE AND THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE LATEST PW VALUES FROM GPS DATA AND LOCAL RAOBS ARE IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE, AND MUCAPES FROM THE SPC MESOANALYSIS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. THE INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS PORTRAYED BY THE LATEST RAP MODEL GUIDANCE, EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG IN PLACES BY 16Z." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 This is not good news at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 Just now, homedis said: And WPC is saying "AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF TRAINING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST IOWA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE. MOISTURE AND THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE LATEST PW VALUES FROM GPS DATA AND LOCAL RAOBS ARE IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE, AND MUCAPES FROM THE SPC MESOANALYSIS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. THE INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS PORTRAYED BY THE LATEST RAP MODEL GUIDANCE, EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG IN PLACES BY 16Z." Yeah you have radar estimates back near Mount Carroll of 2-3" in an hour. If this were to grow upscale any, it would just exacerbate the issues over Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 12, 2017 Author Share Posted July 12, 2017 Needless to say it's going to be a big problem if the same area of northern IL gets trained later. Just had a line quickly swing through here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Needless to say it's going to be a big problem if the same area of northern IL gets trained later. Just had a line quickly swing through here. JOT area was skirted once again, last night as well. Are we up for any action later this afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 Just a heads up. Northern Indiana weather radar is offline currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 12, 2017 Author Share Posted July 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, King James said: JOT area was skirted once again, last night as well. Are we up for any action later this afternoon? Can't rule out a pop-up storm. Probably a better shot later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 Picked up a good inch so far today. More probably to come. Here's the timelapse of that supercell over the burbs last night. Incredible lightning show. I take the powerflashes were from lightning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 12, 2017 Author Share Posted July 12, 2017 Not abundantly clear to me how the rest of the day will play out. There is clearing to the north/west and we shouldn't have trouble getting storms to redevelop later, but trends suggest that much of northern IL/IN, MI etc may have trouble destabilizing a lot. Guess we'll have to see. And will have to watch the leftover boundaries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Not abundantly clear to me how the rest of the day will play out. There is clearing to the north/west and we shouldn't have trouble getting storms to redevelop later, but trends suggest that much of northern IL/IN, MI etc may have trouble destabilizing a lot. Guess we'll have to see. And will have to watch the leftover boundaries. Agreed. 15z and 16z HRRR shows cloud cover through 23z and temps staying in the 70's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 It really won't take much for us to destabilize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 12, 2017 Author Share Posted July 12, 2017 16 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: Agreed. 15z and 16z HRRR shows cloud cover through 23z and temps staying in the 70's. I guess the tame range of possible outcomes would feature a mostly sub-severe MCS moving through the aforementioned areas later, which would still carry a flooding threat especially spots that have already been hammered. This is a really moist low level airmass though and you never want to ignore that in the presence of some shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 8-10" rainfall estimates widespread in NE. IL/SE. WI. More storms rolling through those areas now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 Possible tornado over Monticello, Indiana currently. Movement is southeast at 50 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 From the NWS in Cleveland... One factor that will not change through Thursday is the amount of moisture across the region. This will lead to heavy rainfall from any of the convection that develops. The potential for a flood watch for tonight into Thursday is high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.