Indystorm Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 Satellite shows some sort of boundary across IA into north central IL. Theta-E advection or DMC? Don't know if we have an impulse to really fire and get things going. Maybe it's the effective warm front since they tend to get more active at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 11, 2017 Author Share Posted July 11, 2017 I should elaborate on my velocity comment. It looks better on DMX compared to DVN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 Someone on fb posted a pic of the tor. Was a nice cone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 Tornado in Iowa isn't in a bad environment. Good amount of sfc vorticity along a sfc boundary and modest 0-3km MLCAPE. LCLs with this very moist airmass are below 1000m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 don't know if this is the exact perfect place to ask this but i'll fire anyway. Tonight's storms > MCS were supposed to start near FAR according to most of the models the last 24 hours. now that we actually have convection, it started ~ 100 miles NNW closer to GFK. question is, will SPC and others have to move that enhanced risk area (and slight risk down the line ) towards the north and east Twin cities metro instead of the south and west metro, and would that put more of western and central WI into play early tomorrow morning compared with southern MN and northern IA for hail/gusts/flooding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 Would one look at the 700 or 500 mb flow to best determine the route of the newly forming MCS in North Dakota? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 go by the upper flow in particular (700/500), you'd say that goes west to east. but the majority of the storms are moving SE parallel to the surface boundary. other fly in this ointment, what about the storms in SD? how long do they keep going? hRRR hints that they die off eventually east of US 71. but what if the storms from near GFK stay going SE and start interacting with the storms coming across SW MN near New Ulm and Sauk Centre? might be a new ball game then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 Is it just proximity to the radar or does that storm almost over MVX look more ready to drop a sig TOR than any of the ones that have produced over the last several days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 GOT to be producing with a look like that. Pixel to pixel at about 300 feet. Surprised they haven't extended the warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 Next scan. Yikes. #tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Is it just proximity to the radar or does that storm almost over MVX look more ready to drop a sig TOR than any of the ones that have produced over the last several days? probably a combination of both. but it definitely looks like it amplified. SRV has it 83 inbound and 75 outbound (BV has 55 inbound/90 outbound). if that isn't producing something decent i don't know what will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 Jacob Thumburger from spotter network is reporting multi-vortex. game on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, Jim Marusak said: Jacob Thumburger from spotter network is reporting multi-vortex. game on Yeah TDS associated with that circulation too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 Reed's on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 That's a major tornado vortex signature and also a tornado debris signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 good thing it's between Grand Forks and Fargo and not near one of those cities. a rain-wrapped potentially multi-vortex tornado plowing through one of them would be catastrophic. that being said, I hope no trucks are currently crossing I-29 near ND 200. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 That is a very strong signature on radar, big donut hole on the reflectivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 ..01Z OUTLOOK UPDATE EVEN THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH APPEARS TO HAVE BACKED OFF EARLIER INDICATIONS OF THE POSSIBILITY OF THE EVOLUTION OF A SIGNIFICANT CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. THIS APPEARS CONSISTENT WITH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF MODEL OUTPUT AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 PDS warning 8:06 p.m. CDT for tornado 33 miles north of Fargo moving se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 A little late to the game, but after spotting for my county last night, caught 4 hours of sleep then to Indy for training all day. Was positioned on the Wabash/Huntington County line as back-to-back tornado warned cells entered the area. Didn't bag one but caught a couple of funnels and some nice wall cloud structure. Here's a quick couple of pics. I might have some better ones later when I have more time to go through them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 Thought you would be extremely busy yesterday up in Huntington county...and then training today. Wow! Glad you made it home after our deluge here in Indpls area today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Thought you would be extremely busy yesterday up in Huntington county...and then training today. Wow! Glad you made it home after our deluge here in Indpls area today. Nope, still down here in a hotel, it was quite the goose drowner. A couple more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 Goose drowner, I am so going to use that in a conversation at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 Chicago' s next MCS may be forming now in ne IA and then riding the Theta-E and DMC axis southeast to ne IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 12, 2017 Author Share Posted July 12, 2017 I thought this was a cool pic from last night on IWX's page. Near Deacon, IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Chicago' s next MCS may be forming now in ne IA and then riding the Theta-E and DMC axis southeast to ne IL. NWS is thinking that will dissipate soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 12 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: NWS is thinking that will dissipate soon There is development on-going though in Northern Illinois... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 Just now, Jim Martin said: There is development on-going though in Northern Illinois... That is associated with the theta-e advection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 Just now, Stebo said: That is associated with the theta-e advection Ah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 The storms around the Quad Cities Dubuque may not necessarily develop into a MCS, but they will likely continue to bubble and expand eastward throughout the night and tomorrow morning (similar to what happened last night). Hi-Res models have a pretty good handle on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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