July 9-16 Severe Weather/Heavy Rain Potential

[knitwx]

Another tornado warning for Cass county In. Near Walton.

[Hoosier]

Video from Deer Creek, IN

https://www.twitter.com/rtv6/status/884582669316739074/video/1

[nwohweather]

Wednesday looks pretty good, especially in lower MI for severe. Hopefully the threat winds up being on the border, Ohio is a far easier place to chase with a one mile grid, little hills and wide open fields

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

5 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Wednesday looks pretty good, especially in lower MI for severe. Hopefully the threat winds up being on the border, Ohio is a far easier place to chase with a one mile grid, little hills and wide open fields

Wednesday looking extremely good now, I'd wager an Enhanced Risk will eventually be issued (assuming we don't get socked in with clouds)

[Stebo]

7 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Wednesday looks pretty good, especially in lower MI for severe. Hopefully the threat winds up being on the border, Ohio is a far easier place to chase with a one mile grid, little hills and wide open fields

Depending on the parts, Michigan can be alright, especially near the border, in the thumb or along the 127 corridor.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

GRR sounds very enthused 

Wednesday afternoon will be a time for all of us to watch the sky
carefully. It would seem to this forecast the set up for severe
storms it the best I have seen this year for this area. There is
just about all the  one would typically look for. The deep layer
shear rises to near 40 knots north of I-96 late in the day, there
is a 35 to 45 knot low level jet across central lower Michigan in
the afternoon, we get into the jet entrance region late in the
day. Since there is a cold front trailing the surface low we have
good surface convergence. There is good 700 to 300 mb QVECT
convergence, the sounding show a "loaded gun" type sounding
during the afternoon too. If that is not enough the the SPC SREF
calibrated probability of severe storms reaches a 13 late in the
day Wednesday, that is the highest number I have seen in Michigan
this entire year. The SREF conditional Severe gets to 40 percent
(which for Michigan is high). The CravenBrooks Significant Severe
gets to 40,000, which is the highest I have seen all year too.
The significant tornado parameter reaches "2" near route 10 by
late in the afternoon. I could go on but by now you should get the
picture. I see the threat of very heavy rain, very strong and
possibly damaging winds, and tornadoes are not out of the
question Wed afternoon into the early evening.

[Harry Perry]

2 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

GRR sounds very enthused 

Wednesday afternoon will be a time for all of us to watch the sky
carefully. It would seem to this forecast the set up for severe
storms it the best I have seen this year for this area. There is
just about all the  one would typically look for. The deep layer
shear rises to near 40 knots north of I-96 late in the day, there
is a 35 to 45 knot low level jet across central lower Michigan in
the afternoon, we get into the jet entrance region late in the
day. Since there is a cold front trailing the surface low we have
good surface convergence. There is good 700 to 300 mb QVECT
convergence, the sounding show a "loaded gun" type sounding
during the afternoon too. If that is not enough the the SPC SREF
calibrated probability of severe storms reaches a 13 late in the
day Wednesday, that is the highest number I have seen in Michigan
this entire year. The SREF conditional Severe gets to 40 percent
(which for Michigan is high). The CravenBrooks Significant Severe
gets to 40,000, which is the highest I have seen all year too.
The significant tornado parameter reaches "2" near route 10 by
late in the afternoon. I could go on but by now you should get the
picture. I see the threat of very heavy rain, very strong and
possibly damaging winds, and tornadoes are not out of the
question Wed afternoon into the early evening.

Bill was very throurough with his discussion this morning and made several excellent points. Starting to wonder that if we had nocturnal convection early on, if it would even make much of a difference with the amount of shear and forcing in the region. One of the setups where severe weather isn't dedicated to a full day of sunshine, but would certainly draw an ugly picture if it pans out that way. 

 

All in all, looks to be a rather interesting day across the region. Looking through the majority of guidance, it's somewhat ominous how the NAMnst, GFS, GEFS, and RAP are all agreeing on bringing excellent 3km helicity, good 1km helecity, 35-40kts of LLJ, roughly 1800-2500JKG of surface based instibility, and dews into the 70's for much of southern Wisconson, Northern Illinois, southern lower Michigan. Also - Supercell composite and tornado composites are both sky high for this region as well. 

 

Will be be interesting to see what transpires today and how the models handle tomorrow.

[Indystorm]

Just torrential here this Tuesday midday IMBY and Indpls metro area.  My front and east lawn look like lakes.  Have not seen it this bad in the three years I have lived here. Ground was already saturated before this latest deluge.  Nearly 3 inches here.  Over 4 inches just this morning at Greenwood.

[Hoosier]

Wednesday slight risk was expanded significantly westward.

[Jim Martin]

The National Weather Service in Wilmington (OH) confirmed the tornado last night in northern Mercer County, OH, near Rockford. Details to come in the next 24 hours.

[Hoosier]

37 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Just torrential here this Tuesday midday IMBY and Indpls metro area.  My front and east lawn look like lakes.  Have not seen it this bad in the three years I have lived here. Ground was already saturated before this latest deluge.

Another example of the haves and have nots.  Lawns around here are still partially brown. 

[King James]

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Another example of the haves and have nots.  Lawns around here are still partially brown. 

Still in the same boat as you, though we did get a good lightning show last night.  Everything is still skirting us here on the south side

[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, King James said:

Still in the same boat as you, though we did get a good lightning show last night.  Everything is still skirting us here on the south side

We'll have some chances later tonight/early tomorrow and maybe again later Wednesday/early Thursday.  If that doesn't really pan out, well...

[CheeselandSkies]

3 hours ago, Harry Perry said:

Looking through the majority of guidance, it's somewhat ominous how the NAMnst, GFS, GEFS, and RAP are all agreeing on bringing excellent 3km helicity, good 1km helecity, 35-40kts of LLJ, roughly 1800-2500JKG of surface based instibility, and dews into the 70's for much of southern Wisconson, Northern Illinois, southern lower Michigan. Also - Supercell composite and tornado composites are both sky high for this region as well. 

 

Will be be interesting to see what transpires today and how the models handle tomorrow.

Still, most CAMs that are in range show southern WI getting the shaft tomorrow afternoon/evening. 3KM NAM in particular has kept us dry but has been relatively consistent with a few intense UH tracks in lower MI, although the location has been bouncing around from run to run which is to be expected.

[Indystorm]

1 minute ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Still, most CAMs that are in range show southern WI getting the shaft tomorrow afternoon/evening.

This one may be Chi-town and the I-80 corridor for the win on Wed.

[Jim Martin]

[Jim Martin]

iwxchat    2017/07/11 2:59 PM    iembot    
Delphos [Van Wert Co, OH] EMERGENCY MNGR reports FLOOD at 2:57 PM EDT -- PEOPLE AT A FACTORY ARE SHELTERING IN PLACE BECAUSE THE FACTORY IS SURROUNDED BY WATER. WORKERS THAT HAVE LEFT HAVE WALKED ON RAILROAD TRACKS TO GET OUT.

[CoachLB]

Downed trees and power outages in darke and Prebel county Ohio. Eaton Ohio reporting 63mph wind gusts.

[Jim Martin]

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Eastern Butler County in southwestern Ohio...
  Warren County in southwestern Ohio...
  Clinton County in southwestern Ohio...
  Southwestern Clark County in west central Ohio...
  Greene County in west central Ohio...
  Montgomery County in west central Ohio...
  Southern Miami County in west central Ohio...

* Until 330 PM EDT.

* At 240 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Trotwood to near Trenton, moving east at 40
  mph.

  HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. 

[Hoosier]

The Carroll/Cass county IN tornado (Deer Creek area) has been rated EF-1.  Started in the IND cwa and crossed into IWX.

[Hoosier]

Thought this was interesting from DVN

 

Heavy rain concern. The question tonight becomes where and where
does the organized thunderstorm complex develop. The 850 and 700 mb
temperatures increasing across the area tonight which could push the
organized convection further north. However, the cloud band across
Iowa is troubling in that the effective boundary appears to be
further south than what the models suggest.

If the effective boundary is further south, then the organized
thunderstorm complex would be over the area instead of Wisconsin.
Trends with the RAP do show the backward/forward Corfidi vectors
becoming perpendicular and then opposing each other prior to sunrise
across the area. Convergence aloft then shifts to the south over the
area prior to sunrise Wednesday.

Thus the scenario that is being suggested is a heavy rain event for
the area. Given the high PWATs feeding into the area and a potential
for storms to move repeatedly across the same area, flash flooding
would be a concern.

Unfortunately, the overall situation becomes a met watch. Once
individual storms begin developing this evening, the overall risk
area will become known and changes to the forecast can be made.

[buckeye]

Yesterday was some of the worst street flooding and hail I've seen around here in several years.   No flash flood watches were issued beforehand.    Today ILN issues flash flood watches for most of Central Ohio and not a drop of rain has fallen in Columbus.  It was clear that the dying MCS would stay sw of us, radar is clear, skies heavily overcast and no SR model is showing significant rain in the CMH area this evening or tonight... 

Time to take down the watch guys.

[cyclone77]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Thought this was interesting from DVN

 

Heavy rain concern. The question tonight becomes where and where
does the organized thunderstorm complex develop. The 850 and 700 mb
temperatures increasing across the area tonight which could push the
organized convection further north. However, the cloud band across
Iowa is troubling in that the effective boundary appears to be
further south than what the models suggest.

If the effective boundary is further south, then the organized
thunderstorm complex would be over the area instead of Wisconsin.
Trends with the RAP do show the backward/forward Corfidi vectors
becoming perpendicular and then opposing each other prior to sunrise
across the area. Convergence aloft then shifts to the south over the
area prior to sunrise Wednesday.

Thus the scenario that is being suggested is a heavy rain event for
the area. Given the high PWATs feeding into the area and a potential
for storms to move repeatedly across the same area, flash flooding
would be a concern.

Unfortunately, the overall situation becomes a met watch. Once
individual storms begin developing this evening, the overall risk
area will become known and changes to the forecast can be made.

Not expecting anything in our area other than maybe a rogue storm or two.  All short-term models develop storms way up in Wisconsin on the nose of the strengthening LLJ.  Southern WI down into northeast IL could get dumped on pretty good later tonight.

I'm guessing DVN is focusing on the surface boundary, but the main action will be the elevated stuff later on.

[AppsRunner]

A very pleasant 91/80 here with a heat index of 109. It's... a tad humid 

[Powerball]

Today was definitely Georgia-like and exceeded expectations.

Once the fog/stratus mixed out, had some pop-up t'storms develop. Nothing severe, but definitely some torrential downpours.

Skies have cleared back out now with some additional convection trying to get going.

[CheeselandSkies]

Tornado watch out for eastern ND and west-central MN, with a couple of tornado-warned supercells already ongoing, one with a reported tornado. This is a little west of the sub for now, but this is the beginning of Round 1 for us tonight.

[Powerball]

5 hours ago, Indystorm said:

Just torrential here this Tuesday midday IMBY and Indpls metro area.  My front and east lawn look like lakes.  Have not seen it this bad in the three years I have lived here. Ground was already saturated before this latest deluge.  Nearly 3 inches here.  Over 4 inches just this morning at Greenwood.

Yeah, you guys definitely had an old-fashioned stormy day down there.

IND reported a thunderstorm for 8 consecutive hours, which is impressive.

[Indystorm]

Confirmed tor now this Tues eve se of Marengo IA in Quad Cities area.  West of Iowa City.  Some good wind shear, helicity, and certainly CAPE in the area.

[Hoosier]

7 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Confirmed tor now this Tues eve se of Marengo IA in Quad Cities area.  West of Iowa City.  Some good wind shear, helicity, and certainly CAPE in the area.

Velocity doesn't look like much.

[Stebo]

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Velocity doesn't look like much.

Funnel cloud reported by airport tower and tornado reported by plane, though I agree it does look like nothing. Then again some of the storms yesterday looked like nothing on radar and were producing.