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July 9-16 Severe Weather/Heavy Rain Potential


Hoosier

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3 hours ago, nwohweather said:

Not really buying the atmosphere recovering here today for severe weather

I agree. Majority of guidance primarily showing development south of MI/IN/OH boarder later on today. 

 

I'd be willing to bet the SPC pulls the slight risk area farther south where the better instability develops later on today. The atmosphere has been worked over with this mornings convection around these parts.

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This tidbit from the GRR AFD is worrying

We will need to monitor Wednesday closely. Models are showing the
arrival of another mid level wave. An associated upper level jet
moves in as well. Meanwhile the low level flow is shown to be
backed. This results in stronger deep layer shear during the day
with increasing helicity as we go into the afternoon. Thus right
now it looks like an elevated risk for a tornado exists. Will
continue to mention the severe weather potential in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook for this system.
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1 minute ago, geddyweather said:

Make that three tornado warnings north of Peoria. Gigantic HP supercell with three apparent areas of rotation. One confirmed tornado already near Dunlap, IL.

I think the 3rd warning was for the occluded meso, which was headed out of the original box.

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Why these three Peoria-area counties weren't included in the watch to begin with is beyond me--since the watch box outline included parts of all three of them.  And with Peoria County in the thick of tornado warnings as we speak--and PIA city proper in play.

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 407
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
559 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2017

ILC095-143-179-110400-
/O.EXA.KILX.SV.A.0407.000000T0000Z-170711T0400Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 407 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS
EVENING

IN ILLINOIS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS

PEORIA                TAZEWELL

IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS

KNOX

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF GALESBURG, PEKIN, AND PEORIA.
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3 minutes ago, Tim from Springfield (IL) said:

Why these three Peoria-area counties weren't included in the watch to begin with is beyond me--since the watch box outline included parts of all three of them.  And with Peoria County in the thick of tornado warnings as we speak--and PIA city proper in play.


WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 407
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
559 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2017

ILC095-143-179-110400-
/O.EXA.KILX.SV.A.0407.000000T0000Z-170711T0400Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 407 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS
EVENING

IN ILLINOIS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS

PEORIA                TAZEWELL

IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS

KNOX

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF GALESBURG, PEKIN, AND PEORIA.

That would probably lie with ILX and not SPC as I think the offices have the final call on which counties to include.  OceanStWx can correct me if I'm wrong.

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

That would probably lie with ILX and not SPC as I think the offices have the final call on which counties to include.  OceanStWx can correct me if I'm wrong.

It's a bit of a collaboration process. Typically counties are proposed by SPC, then on a conference call WFOs can argue for or against any county they like, SPC issues the final proposal, and WFOs issue the watch. After that each WFO can add whatever county they want (after coordinating with SPC) without the need for a brand new watch (as long as the WFO was part of the original watch). 

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2 tornado warnings in central  In . Cass county In warning cited spotted sighted funnel cloud. Also a tornado warning in carroll co indiana. add miami co Spotters reported a funnel cloud near Chili in. Wabash co in warning locations impacted Wabash.

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3 minutes ago, knitwx said:

2 tornado warnings in central  In . Cass county In warning cited spotted sighted funnel cloud. Also a tornado warning in carroll co indiana.

The cell south of Logansport has pretty decent rotation right now.

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