Indystorm Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said: I still like my chances, but models continue to put Cedar Rapids right on the edge tonight. Between CR and Dubuque looks to be a hot spot, while heading sw from CR the action may drop off quickly. The HRRR drops the rainfall off to nothing just one county sw of CR. It does appear tonight may be the main show of the entire week for eastern Iowa. The next couple days' action may be well southeast or northeast of my area. I do think you will be under the heat dome as the week progresses with storms rounding the ring of fire eastward like you said. Good luck tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 GOES-16 1-min vis imagery looks pretty sweet up in west-central MN. Can easily pick out the warm front. Also some new cells firing up in central IA along the moisture convergence zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 21z COD launch was fairly impressive from Sauk Centre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, andyhb said: 21z COD launch was fairly impressive from Sauk Centre. Not much cap left there. And just to their NE some pretty robust towers are going up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 Radar not particularly active from the Twin Cities, yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 Towering cumulus showing up nicely between Wilmar and Litchfield. Looks like initiation not too far off. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-02-48-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 Tornado Watch until 1 AM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 Very good shear, helicity, and upper 60's dews in MN. so I'm not surprised at the tor watch being issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 41kft just southeast of Wilmar. Cell going up in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 1 hour ago, andyhb said: 21z COD launch was fairly impressive from Sauk Centre. as an FYI, showing my age a bit, that's ~ 35 miles from the old St Cloud RAOBS site (72655) before it was re-located to Chanhassen (72649). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 First svr warning for stevens and swift counties in MN....off to the races as cell moving se at 50 mph. MN beginning to light up now as multiple cells are forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 Already warnings for ping pong ball size hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 The National Weather Service in The Twin Cities has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southwestern Stevens County in west central Minnesota... Western Swift County in west central Minnesota... * Until 845 PM CDT * At 756 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Artichoke, or 15 miles northeast of Ortonville, moving east at 30 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 radar estimated storm tops now are in the 55-60kft range. this is serious business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 Confirmed tornado near Cerro Gordo MN moving south at 8:41 CDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Indystorm said: Confirmed tornado at Cerro Gordo MN moving south at 8:41 CDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 All these storms tonight in Minnesota are sure dropping some big hail, from golf ball size to tennis ball size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 And they look like they will form a powerful MCS to last through the night with increase in svr wind potential as they move se. Virtually all the cells on MPX radar are svr warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 high precipitation/ large hail supercell near Lafayette MN. update: Tornado warned (9:30PM central) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 Concern that the leading edge of the complex south of the twin cities near Fairibault will form a powerful line of storms heading into IA. Already being warned for 70 mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 Impressive broken line of supercells moving south tonight through southern Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Concern that the leading edge of the complex south of the twin cities near Fairibault will form a powerful line of storms heading into IA. Already being warned for 70 mph winds. Pretty strong signal for it to continue down into NE IA, somewhere between CCY and DEH, as a robust MCS before starting to weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 Not 100% sure what the HRRR is doing with the MCS, Mesoanalysis has the instability gradient oriented in a manner that would favor a SSE movement opposed to the ESE movement that the HRRR has been fairly consistent with over the last several runs. I would think the MCS would favor that instability gradient and ride it, which is supported by the current movement should the MCS keep the SMV as upscale growth occurs(which it should). I believe I have seen a bias in the HRRR in the past for it to be too easterly with MCS movement, but am not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 10, 2017 Author Share Posted July 10, 2017 18 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Not 100% sure what the HRRR is doing with the MCS, Mesoanalysis has the instability gradient oriented in a manner that would favor a SSE movement opposed to the ESE movement that the HRRR has been fairly consistent with over the last several runs. I would think the MCS would favor that instability gradient and ride it, which is supported by the current movement should the MCS keep the SMV as upscale growth occurs(which it should). I believe I have seen a bias in the HRRR in the past for it to be too easterly with MCS movement, but am not sure. One thing to keep in mind is that significant destabilization is progged to occur overnight with eastward extent into northern IL/southern WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 Large TOG near Lake Crystal, in progress for 5-10 minutes.Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 7 hours ago, OceanStWx said: That's not great, but not too terrible. I'm not sure who is and isn't certified there anymore, but you could hold the evening balloon shift over an extra couple of hours to launch (430z release time). Even staying to the end of the flight would probably get them in bed by 2 AM (unless a severe MCS is headed their way ) not having to be in until 2 PM that afternoon. Those near 06z launches get easier and easier the farther west you are. Any results from that sounding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 a tornado has been reported at Judson/Lake Crystal MN (see SmokeEater post) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 10, 2017 Author Share Posted July 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 10, 2017 Author Share Posted July 10, 2017 Here's the 05z sounding from DVN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 Minnesota got some nasty cells early on, but the severe wind event downstream did not pan out at all. Once the storms moved into Iowa and sw Wisconsin, it mostly just congealed into a blob of heavy rain. Parts of Madison have received 3-5+ inches.. So far I'm just receiving some solid lightning and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.