hlcater Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Chinook said: For what it's worth, the DMX radar is picking up a lot of radar anomalies, and some rain showers. It may be hard to tell the difference if you just take a quick look. Noob question. Anyone know why radar is more sensitive to those anomalies on some days and not others? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Noob question. Anyone know why radar is more sensitive to those anomalies on some days and not others? My guess: Cooler air left by thunderstorms creates an inversion which leads to anomalous propagation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 59 minutes ago, Hoosier said: MI peeps will love the 01z outlook. Ugh. See you in the banter thread.... We're numb to the pain anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 13, 2017 Author Share Posted July 13, 2017 LOT update from RC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 910 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017 .UPDATE... 910 PM CDT Opted to expand the Flash Flood Watch to include the entire CWA. Confidence in trends through the overnight is on the lower side, but with an incredibly moist air mass in place (near or above 2" PWAT) did not want to downplay the flash flooding potential for areas farther south if more widespread convection does develop. Main feature of note in the immediate term is a small cluster of strong thunderstorms over NW Illinois propagating eastward ahead of the cold front. In addition, a MCS has formed from northern MO into far southeast IA and far western IL. This is the feature of concern for potential flood risk into the southern CWA. DVN and ILX 00z RAOBS contained substantial MUCAPE (3700 j/kg and nearly 5000 j/kg respectively). In the presence of moderate deep shear due to a short-wave riding east from IA and such high MUCAPEs, cannot rule out a few isolated or widely scattered instances of near severe to severe wind and hail in line with latest thoughts from SPC. The NW IL cluster of immediate concern has shown some intensifying trend on most recent radar scans so will need to monitor it for strong/severe potential. The CAMs have been of no use in diagnosing near term trends, so the general idea in the forecast is of gradually increasing storms later this evening and overnight over the rest of the area and then sagging south with the frontal boundary. The cold front timing is not typically one that yields a significant expansion of convection overnight more favorable for flash flooding. However, with areas of northern Illinois primed by the excessive rain last night into this morning, hourly Flash Flood guidance is quite low, so despite lower confidence, opted to hold onto the watch. If convection does not fill in for portions of the watch overnight, expect that the midnight shift will be able to cancel these areas early. For areas far south now included in the watch, the concern is that the MCS currently expanding into far western IL expands east across central IL and eventually into Indiana south of the Kankakee River. While confidence is also on the low side for these areas, it`s possible that southern areas relatively speaking have a higher threat for training convection and flash flooding despite much drier conditions of late. Castro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Definite uptick in the thunderstorm development in the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Current radar out of the Chicago area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 I presume the long east/west thin line of t storms is along a warm front. Some hourly two inch totals along that line to the west. It's been fascinating to watch it creep eastward closer to the Indiana line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Currently in Northwest Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Precipiable Water Values over two inches in Northern Illinois. Those values are the same over Indiana, and on their way into Northwest Ohio for the overnight. Efficient rain producing storms for the overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 13, 2017 Author Share Posted July 13, 2017 56 minutes ago, Jim Martin said: Current radar out of the Chicago area. Nice light show to my south. King James, looks like we might mostly miss out again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 13, 2017 Author Share Posted July 13, 2017 Got scraped by a heavier cell. Better rain literally went about 2 miles south of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 4.66" of rain here in midtown Findlay overnight last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 The result of 4.66" of rain overnight plus the rainfall here recently... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 1 hour ago, Jim Martin said: 4.66" of rain here in midtown Findlay overnight last night. Another Major crest for the Blanchard River. Highest in 4 years, though this seems like a annual occurrence now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, osubrett2 said: Another Major crest for the Blanchard River. Highest in 4 years, though this seems like a annual occurrence now. Any additional rainfall today (which looks like a definite possibility), could add insult to injury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Ominous wording from the NWS in Cleveland in regards to the Blanchard River in Findlay... OHC063-132206- /O.CON.KCLE.FL.W.0055.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /FDYO1.3.ER.170713T0853Z.170714T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NR/ 1006 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE Blanchard River Near Findlay * Until further notice. * AT 8:00 AM Thu THE stage WAS 13.7 feet * Major flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast * Flood stage is 11.0 feet * The river will rise to near 17.0 feet by Friday morning then begin falling. * At 17.5 feet...Major flooding will occur in downtown Findlay. Flooding can be expected from Westerfield Drive to County Road 236 along the Blanchard River. Flooding can also be expected along Eagle and Lye Creeks between State Route 15 and the Blanchard River. About three quarters of downtown inundated. * At 17.0 feet...FEMA 0.2 percent flood level. Major flooding in Findlay. * At 16.0 feet...FEMA 1 percent flood level. Widespread evacuations needed in the City of Findlay. The highways that are impacted include U.S. 68 on the south side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 What a difference one hour makes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 I'll have to review the radar from last night, but so far this even has been a bust in Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 13, 2017 Author Share Posted July 13, 2017 Major to record flooding expected on the Des Plaines River in northern Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Early 1630z SPC outlook shifts SLGT down to along the OH River. Any severe further north looks to be dead in the water, but that is a good thing especially for those dealing with moderate/major flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 1 hour ago, Jonger said: I'll have to review the radar from last night, but so far this even has been a bust in Michigan. You've gotten more than most tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 The Columbus Metro has been inundated all morning... 2.42" officially at the airport through 1pm (all falling since 7:30am) and some parts further east have seen over 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 16 minutes ago, Stebo said: You've gotten more than most tbh. Which highlights the bust well.... I will admit that the rain we got yesterday is shown about .20 low... My rain gauge was down for 30 minutes at the peak of the rainfall event. Installed a new network switch to rectify that problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Just now, Jonger said: Which highlights the bust well.... I will admit that the rain we got yesterday is shown about .20 low... My rain gauge was down for 30 minutes at the peak of the rainfall event. Installed a new network switch to rectify that problem. If it was down for 30 mins, you are short about .30-.35. A report from Howell had a bit over an inch in an hour there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Just now, Stebo said: If it was down for 30 mins, you are short about .30-.35. A report from Howell had a bit over an inch in an hour there. That's how I found the error. The Bloomsky facebook page is full of disgruntled customers. This thing is a toy essentially. The temps are pretty accurate, the wind is extremely inaccurate and the rain is accurate (when it's up). I think the rain gauge went down due to my own equipment faults. I'm really thinking about getting a Davis with an aspirated fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Just now, Jonger said: That's how I found the error. The Bloomsky facebook page is full of disgruntled customers. This thing is a toy essentially. The temps are pretty accurate, the wind is extremely inaccurate and the rain is accurate (when it's up). I think the rain gauge went down due to my own equipment faults. I'm really thinking about getting a Davis with an aspirated fan. If I owned the house I live in, I would have this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 I always recommend the old fashioned rain gauge. Use the dipstick and the tube and you will be 100% accurate. And of course it's WAY more accurate than asos for melting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 3 hours ago, Jonger said: I'll have to review the radar from last night, but so far this even has been a bust in Michigan. Our area was one of the hardest hit again this morning, lots of 2.5"-3" reports, a friend of mine works for the road commission in St Clair County and said lots of flooding with some roads washed out even. We have had a ton of rain since March in our area. Instead of a snow belt it's been a rain belt. Very narrow strip just south of I69 in Lapeer and St Clair county's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 1 minute ago, slow poke said: Our area was one of the hardest hit again this morning, lots of 2.5"-3" reports, a friend of mine works for the road commission in St Clair County and said lots of flooding with some roads washed out even. We have had a ton of rain since March in our area. Instead of a snow belt it's been a rain belt. Very narrow strip just south of I69 in Lapeer and St Clair county's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 3 hours ago, osubrett2 said: The Columbus Metro has been inundated all morning... 2.42" officially at the airport through 1pm (all falling since 7:30am) and some parts further east have seen over 4". CMH up to 2.82" for the day. 2.54" IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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