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7/6-7/7 2017 Heavy Rain/Flood Potential


Rtd208

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1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

a very moist environment with a morning low/warm front. just issue the flood warnings now

These are our biggest heavy rain/flash producers. Coming up on the 10th anniversary of the July 2007 event.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

The GFS doesn't seem thrilled with this event at all; haven't looked at the hi res models. I'm head to Narrowsburg for the weekend, any updates where the heaviest axis should be? It seems like the GFS wants Sussex/Orange County.

Neither does the rgem and the nam cut back

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Nice write up from Mount Holly tonight:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Round 1 of the heavy rain had come to an end by 7:00 PM, so the Flash Flood Watch for Philadelphia and 
vicinity was cancelled.  The greatest rainfall total for the day was 8.06 at Warwick, Maryland. There 
was widespread flooding in parts of southeastern Cecil County, Maryland and southwestern New Castle County,
Delaware.

Low pressure was coalescing over Virginia this evening. The feature is expected to progress northeastward 
reaching the Philadelphia metropolitan area around or shortly after daybreak.

A round of moderate to heavy rain with scattered thunderstorms is forecast to move into eastern 
Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey late tonight in the lift to the northwest of the low.
While localized flooding is possible, a threat of widespread flash flooding is not clear at this 
point so another watch will not be issued. It appears as though general rainfall totals in eastern 
Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey will be in the 0.5 to 1.5 inch range with local amounts of 2 
to around 3 inches possible. Meanwhile, light to moderate rain showers are anticipated for the upper 
Delmarva and southern New Jersey with additional amounts mainly less than a half inch.

The light east to southeast surface flow will continue until the area of low pressure arrives late 
tonight. At that time, the wind is anticipated to become variable.

Low temperatures should be mainly in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Leftover heavy showers and isolated tstms mainly n of I-78 during the morning then it heats up 
during the mid and late afternoon to possibly 90 degrees vcnty PHL. We are not using the
12z/6 GGEM-GFS soln attm and more so the WPC day 1 grids issued around 1830z. Winds become 
northwesterly early in the day then west to southwest in the afternoon. Still humid. A line of
strong tstms may be approaching the Poconos around 5 or 6PM.

02z HRRR through the end of its run:

hrrr_apcpn_neus_18.png

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18 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Nice write up from Mount Holly tonight:


.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Round 1 of the heavy rain had come to an end by 7:00 PM, so the Flash Flood Watch for Philadelphia and 
vicinity was cancelled.  The greatest rainfall total for the day was 8.06 at Warwick, Maryland. There 
was widespread flooding in parts of southeastern Cecil County, Maryland and southwestern New Castle County,
Delaware.

Low pressure was coalescing over Virginia this evening. The feature is expected to progress northeastward 
reaching the Philadelphia metropolitan area around or shortly after daybreak.

A round of moderate to heavy rain with scattered thunderstorms is forecast to move into eastern 
Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey late tonight in the lift to the northwest of the low.
While localized flooding is possible, a threat of widespread flash flooding is not clear at this 
point so another watch will not be issued. It appears as though general rainfall totals in eastern 
Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey will be in the 0.5 to 1.5 inch range with local amounts of 2 
to around 3 inches possible. Meanwhile, light to moderate rain showers are anticipated for the upper 
Delmarva and southern New Jersey with additional amounts mainly less than a half inch.

The light east to southeast surface flow will continue until the area of low pressure arrives late 
tonight. At that time, the wind is anticipated to become variable.

Low temperatures should be mainly in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Leftover heavy showers and isolated tstms mainly n of I-78 during the morning then it heats up 
during the mid and late afternoon to possibly 90 degrees vcnty PHL. We are not using the
12z/6 GGEM-GFS soln attm and more so the WPC day 1 grids issued around 1830z. Winds become 
northwesterly early in the day then west to southwest in the afternoon. Still humid. A line of
strong tstms may be approaching the Poconos around 5 or 6PM.

02z HRRR through the end of its run:

hrrr_apcpn_neus_18.png

According to the HRRR the heaviest rain would be just north and west of me, the sfc boundry that John posted on twitter is just to my south. Have to see how things play out overnight and through tomorrow morning but some areas could get several inches of rain.

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37 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

According to the HRRR the heaviest rain would be just north and west of me, the sfc boundry that John posted on twitter is just to my south. Have to see how things play out overnight and through tomorrow morning but some areas could get several inches of rain.

Yeah, this should be a very interesting one to track.  It seems to be giving the models a bit of a tough time.  In fact, take a look at the 03z HRRR, which ended up shifting the higher totals south:

hrrr_apcpn_neus_18.png

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1 hour ago, JerseyWx said:

Yeah, this should be a very interesting one to track.  It seems to be giving the models a bit of a tough time.  In fact, take a look at the 03z HRRR, which ended up shifting the higher totals s

05z HRRR prints out over 5" of rain for parts of NEPA. 

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Just drove through a few of those tiny little cells crossing Long Island, they're more potent than radar suggests, the windshield wipers couldn't keep up.

I'm hoping for the radar improves for the immediate NYC area, it's not looking too good. I was hoping for at least an inch of rain so I wouldn't have to water anything.

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