Rtd208 Posted July 5, 2017 Share Posted July 5, 2017 Models coming around to the idea of a heavy rain/flood event for Thursday night into Friday, where the heaviest rain sets up is still TBD, the NWS is also highlighting the potential as well. Discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 5, 2017 Share Posted July 5, 2017 a very moist environment with a morning low/warm front. just issue the flood warnings now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 5, 2017 Share Posted July 5, 2017 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: a very moist environment with a morning low/warm front. just issue the flood warnings now These are our biggest heavy rain/flash producers. Coming up on the 10th anniversary of the July 2007 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 2 hours ago, bluewave said: These are our biggest heavy rain/flash producers. Coming up on the 10th anniversary of the July 2007 event. Some of our most memorable events have come from this setup. A great way to get a dump on the island during the usual summer convection doldrums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 The GFS doesn't seem thrilled with this event at all; haven't looked at the hi res models. I'm head to Narrowsburg for the weekend, any updates where the heaviest axis should be? It seems like the GFS wants Sussex/Orange County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: The GFS doesn't seem thrilled with this event at all; haven't looked at the hi res models. I'm head to Narrowsburg for the weekend, any updates where the heaviest axis should be? It seems like the GFS wants Sussex/Orange County. Neither does the rgem and the nam cut back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 55 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Neither does the rgem and the nam cut back These events have tended to be very localized. Let's see where the heaviest training sets up. There will be a jackpot area. In general though I think it's mostly a .25-.5 type event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 Upton hinting at a tornado threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, psv88 said: Upton hinting at a tornado threat I'll take the under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 Wettest Euro run so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 The radar isn't looking great. However these events have tended to peak in the morning in our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 Nice write up from Mount Holly tonight: .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Round 1 of the heavy rain had come to an end by 7:00 PM, so the Flash Flood Watch for Philadelphia and vicinity was cancelled. The greatest rainfall total for the day was 8.06 at Warwick, Maryland. There was widespread flooding in parts of southeastern Cecil County, Maryland and southwestern New Castle County, Delaware. Low pressure was coalescing over Virginia this evening. The feature is expected to progress northeastward reaching the Philadelphia metropolitan area around or shortly after daybreak. A round of moderate to heavy rain with scattered thunderstorms is forecast to move into eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey late tonight in the lift to the northwest of the low. While localized flooding is possible, a threat of widespread flash flooding is not clear at this point so another watch will not be issued. It appears as though general rainfall totals in eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey will be in the 0.5 to 1.5 inch range with local amounts of 2 to around 3 inches possible. Meanwhile, light to moderate rain showers are anticipated for the upper Delmarva and southern New Jersey with additional amounts mainly less than a half inch. The light east to southeast surface flow will continue until the area of low pressure arrives late tonight. At that time, the wind is anticipated to become variable. Low temperatures should be mainly in the upper 60s and lower 70s. .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Leftover heavy showers and isolated tstms mainly n of I-78 during the morning then it heats up during the mid and late afternoon to possibly 90 degrees vcnty PHL. We are not using the 12z/6 GGEM-GFS soln attm and more so the WPC day 1 grids issued around 1830z. Winds become northwesterly early in the day then west to southwest in the afternoon. Still humid. A line of strong tstms may be approaching the Poconos around 5 or 6PM. 02z HRRR through the end of its run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 7, 2017 Author Share Posted July 7, 2017 18 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Nice write up from Mount Holly tonight: .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Round 1 of the heavy rain had come to an end by 7:00 PM, so the Flash Flood Watch for Philadelphia and vicinity was cancelled. The greatest rainfall total for the day was 8.06 at Warwick, Maryland. There was widespread flooding in parts of southeastern Cecil County, Maryland and southwestern New Castle County, Delaware. Low pressure was coalescing over Virginia this evening. The feature is expected to progress northeastward reaching the Philadelphia metropolitan area around or shortly after daybreak. A round of moderate to heavy rain with scattered thunderstorms is forecast to move into eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey late tonight in the lift to the northwest of the low. While localized flooding is possible, a threat of widespread flash flooding is not clear at this point so another watch will not be issued. It appears as though general rainfall totals in eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey will be in the 0.5 to 1.5 inch range with local amounts of 2 to around 3 inches possible. Meanwhile, light to moderate rain showers are anticipated for the upper Delmarva and southern New Jersey with additional amounts mainly less than a half inch. The light east to southeast surface flow will continue until the area of low pressure arrives late tonight. At that time, the wind is anticipated to become variable. Low temperatures should be mainly in the upper 60s and lower 70s. .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Leftover heavy showers and isolated tstms mainly n of I-78 during the morning then it heats up during the mid and late afternoon to possibly 90 degrees vcnty PHL. We are not using the 12z/6 GGEM-GFS soln attm and more so the WPC day 1 grids issued around 1830z. Winds become northwesterly early in the day then west to southwest in the afternoon. Still humid. A line of strong tstms may be approaching the Poconos around 5 or 6PM. 02z HRRR through the end of its run: According to the HRRR the heaviest rain would be just north and west of me, the sfc boundry that John posted on twitter is just to my south. Have to see how things play out overnight and through tomorrow morning but some areas could get several inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 Trace so far, failing bigly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 37 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: According to the HRRR the heaviest rain would be just north and west of me, the sfc boundry that John posted on twitter is just to my south. Have to see how things play out overnight and through tomorrow morning but some areas could get several inches of rain. Yeah, this should be a very interesting one to track. It seems to be giving the models a bit of a tough time. In fact, take a look at the 03z HRRR, which ended up shifting the higher totals south: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 Interesting to see the rain moving northwest over central nj but that batch in PA is moving east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 1 hour ago, JerseyWx said: Yeah, this should be a very interesting one to track. It seems to be giving the models a bit of a tough time. In fact, take a look at the 03z HRRR, which ended up shifting the higher totals s 05z HRRR prints out over 5" of rain for parts of NEPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 Radar looks horrific for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 7, 2017 Author Share Posted July 7, 2017 Looks like the jackpot area may wind up being NE PA and NW NJ looking at the current radar but we will see how things play out as the morning progresses, still pretty early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 Looks like that slug of rain is crawling north east. NNJ/Orange Cty/NePa should do well. Flood advisory up out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 Just drove through a few of those tiny little cells crossing Long Island, they're more potent than radar suggests, the windshield wipers couldn't keep up. I'm hoping for the radar improves for the immediate NYC area, it's not looking too good. I was hoping for at least an inch of rain so I wouldn't have to water anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 Down to drizzle at the homestead; heavy returns just up the road based on nexrad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 moderate rain up here in the Poconos...been raining for a few hours now and it looks like it should last another three or four hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 big ol bust for many. Euro was closest, but it was 50 miles too far south. Upton still has 1-2 inches here for today, we'll be lucky to crack .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 5 hours ago, snywx said: 05z HRRR prints out over 5" of rain for parts of NEPA. Last night the HRRR couldn't make up its mind lol. As you can tell, the heaviest rain is focused over northern and western parts of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 2.02" in the rain gauge so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 most of the area looks good for an inch+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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