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July Obs/Disco Thread


George BM

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3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Here's another answer...have my doubts the HRRR verifies though.  It's been really suspect with the 2nd, 3rd, etc. rounds this summer:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=545&yr=2017

LWX AFD says try again 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
928 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains off the southeast coast. A weak boundary
will remain near the area through Monday before stalling south
and east of the area Tuesday. An upper level trough of low
pressure will move over the northeastern US early in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Have had a couple of waves of showers/thunderstorms so far this
afternoon/early evening...the most prolific of which dropped
between 3-5 inches (radar estimated) across northeast Maryland.
The forecast area presently in a lull radar-wise, but that
likely won`t be the end of the precip potential tonight.

Mesoscale analysis suggests 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE still present
across much of Maryland and adjacent Virginia. The 00Z LWX RAOB
confirms this. Effective shear, fortunately, a bit less than
this afternoon, but still around 20-25 kt. A cap evident around
500 mb on the sounding.

As a weak surface boundary drops toward the forecast area
tonight, subtle height falls likely will erode the inhibition,
making it possible for another round of convection...unrelated
to the activity currently in the upper Ohio Valley. RAP/HRRR
composite suggests that showers/thunderstorms will develop
somewhere near the Blue Ridge/Catoctins just after dark and
track toward Baltimore and Washington toward midnight. After
that, details diverge. But given recent rains (and ongoing
flooding) and precipitable waters at or above 2 inches in the
metros...will be keeping the Flash Flood Watch in place through
the early overnight.

Would still not rule out localized severe weather. However, if
will take a more vigorous updraft to collapse and produce
downburst winds. Some CAMs suggesting thats possible...even
after midnight. Otherwise, there will a decreasing trend between
midnight and sunrise. Will be utilizing the latest obs and
composite meso models to fine tune temperature forecasts.

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I'm not sure about SVR overnight, but LWX is correct that the HRRR has been trying to generate another round of storms in a few hours.    Even the NAM nest which hasn't been very good today with the details implied forcing arriving after dark, so I will not be surprised if the radar lights up in a couple of hours.

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35 minutes ago, high risk said:

I'm not sure about SVR overnight, but LWX is correct that the HRRR has been trying to generate another round of storms in a few hours.    Even the NAM nest which hasn't been very good today with the details implied forcing arriving after dark, so I will not be surprised if the radar lights up in a couple of hours.

Radar west of DC is lighting up. Looks like some nighttime towers are going up.

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Trying to watch Mexico vs Jamaica and have been interrupted twice in last hour because storms are popping up overhead.  I look on radar and nothing then 2 minutes later it is thundering and pouring. Pretty cool to have the Directv lead the way on storms popping up, but annoying that I am missing last ten minutes of match. 

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even though this weekend has jacked up my outdoor hoops twice, it's still more fun than the typical summer weather we get around here.  curious if there's any lightning with the cells heading in.  unlike yesterday, so far today it's been just rain here.  i haven't heard any thunder at all.

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Just now, supernovasky said:

Pretty serious shower band just went through my back yard. Hoping that stuff south of me from Reston - DC moves north enough to catch me, I could use a good rainy night to sleep.

 

just saw a flash of lightning with thunder in the distance. not a very active storm, but maybe it'll keep developing for those further east. 

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6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Storm of the year! 

Absolute deluge. Great lightning and thunder out here. If you look at radarscope, there was some broad rotation that developed to my SE and moved over me. As soon as that happened, this storm went to TOWN here. 

 

     can still see that broad rotation, and there has been a huge increase in lightning right in that area.   I can see it nicely to my southeast.

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6 minutes ago, high risk said:

 

     can still see that broad rotation, and there has been a huge increase in lightning right in that area.   I can see it nicely to my southeast.

I'm sitting outside with my jaw dropped. Best lightning in a while for me. I'm almost scared :huh:

Edit: It has that content rumble sound. This is awesome!! Glad I'm off work tomorrow lol

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