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July Obs/Disco Thread


George BM

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  On 7/18/2017 at 4:56 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

You don't like jebwalks in 98/76? 

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I think I'm absorbing a lot of my wife's pregnant distaste for heat and humidity this summer. I'm usually not this crabby about it, but even relatively normal 90-ish heat is getting under my skin. Maybe a bit of regular rainfall would soothe the chapped arse a bit!

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  On 7/18/2017 at 9:03 PM, mattie g said:
I think I'm absorbing a lot of my wife's pregnant distaste for heat and humidity this summer. I'm usually not this crabby about it, but even relatively normal 90-ish heat is getting under my skin. Maybe a bit of regular rainfall would soothe the chapped arse a bit!



Didn't know you guys were expecting another, congrats!
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  On 7/18/2017 at 7:26 PM, North Balti Zen said:

And...nope (again) for Balt City so far.

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Man, I feel for you.  You're doing a nice job of not bi**hing about it.  I've been pretty frustrated lately but finally got into a decent storm today.  1.12" on the day, and I'd gladly take that again for the next two or three days. 

For the Zen and everyone else quoted, I hope you see your share soon.  I can stand the the normal H's of summer around here just as long as we get some relief in the afternoon or evening. And B-Nole has my vote  so far for being the one trapped in the Shawshank laundry room this summer.

 

  On 7/18/2017 at 7:56 PM, high risk said:

I've had thunder from cells to my south, north, and west for well over 2 hours, but I've more claps of thunder than drops of rain.

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  On 7/18/2017 at 8:00 PM, Stormpc said:

In the last 48 days I've had 3 days of measurable rain. 2 of the 3 days were July 5 and 6. Other than that, nothing. Last Friday Tipped the gauge to .01 If I remember correctly. My weeds are dying. 

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  On 7/18/2017 at 8:43 PM, BlizzardNole said:

I wish a big storm would hit in DC when I am in the office -- it's my only chance to see one.

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  On 7/19/2017 at 10:51 AM, losetoa6 said:

Looks like the Euro agrees with Gfs for next week . Has 70s and low-mid 80s all week for most of central Md.

Also Euro not near as hot in particular for Northern Md as gfs this weekend. .so a model battle in that regard. Maybe Euro picking up on remnant Mcs activity or cloud debris from a couple  Mcs  this weekend ...

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Shocker.  This summer has featured one bust after another.  To see the signal for big heat wane as we get near really twists the knife in the back.

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  On 7/19/2017 at 12:32 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

Shocker.  This summer has featured one bust after another.  To see the signal for big heat wane as we get near really twists the knife in the back.

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Euro goes roughly 91/95/97/93 and then has precip Sun/Mon middays.

GFS is 95/96/97/97/101

NAM is 96/95/90/mid-90s

I think one of the reasons the heat has "busted" is simply that the GFS has been over-advertising it.  That's not to say that the Euro didn't do the same this week, but at least it was still 7-8 days out when it started throwing around 100s. 

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  On 7/19/2017 at 1:08 PM, MN Transplant said:

Euro goes roughly 91/95/97/93 and then has precip Sun/Mon middays.

GFS is 95/96/97/97/101

NAM is 96/95/90/mid-90s

I think one of the reasons the heat has "busted" is simply that the GFS has been over-advertising it.  That's not to say that the Euro didn't do the same this week, but at least it was still 7-8 days out when it started throwing around 100s. 

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Ensemble 850s seem to me to also have been over-exaggerating waa for our region.

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So MCS maybe?  From morning LWX AFD:

 

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

Building heat Thursday and Friday. High pressure centered over the M
id-South states will direct organized thunderstorm development/MCSs
from the Lake Erie area to the central Mid-Atlantic. Thursday night
looks to be the first threat time for MCS activity.
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  On 7/19/2017 at 1:53 PM, yoda said:

So MCS maybe?  From morning LWX AFD:

 

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

Building heat Thursday and Friday. High pressure centered over the M
id-South states will direct organized thunderstorm development/MCSs
from the Lake Erie area to the central Mid-Atlantic. Thursday night
looks to be the first threat time for MCS activity.
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Not good to see it progged to start in Lake Erie...those typically go north of Baltimore...we'll also need to watch for an EML to form which would help the storms get over the mountains.  The derechoes in '08 and '12 had that feature and it's key.

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  On 7/19/2017 at 1:53 PM, yoda said:

So MCS maybe?  From morning LWX AFD:

 

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

Building heat Thursday and Friday. High pressure centered over the M
id-South states will direct organized thunderstorm development/MCSs
from the Lake Erie area to the central Mid-Atlantic. Thursday night
looks to be the first threat time for MCS activity.
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Central Mid-Atlantic would be Pennsylvania into Jersey.

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