bluewave Posted July 13, 2017 Author Share Posted July 13, 2017 You know it's going to be hot today when most stations are in the low 80's at 7 am. The only limit on the max temp today is how soon this afternoon the clouds and convection arrive. The storms are currently in OH and Western PA. Central Park MOSUNNY 80 71 74 CALM 30.02S LaGuardia APRT MOSUNNY 84 71 65 SW6 29.99S Kennedy INTL CLOUDY 79 75 87 SW10 30.01R Newark Liberty PTSUNNY 80 72 76 SW8 30.00R Teterboro APRT PTSUNNY 79 72 79 S5 29.98S Bronx Bot Gard N/A 81 70 69 SW3 30.00F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Mesoscales are wet the next 48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 13, 2017 Author Share Posted July 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Mesoscales are wet the next 48hrs. 8 out of 12 days since July 1st with at least some rain or convection. With 16 out of 30 days in June the same. Most active convective first half of summer in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Low of 79 in the park... 81 in LGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Tampa had a low of 74 this morning...Good thing I'm going there next week...it will probably be cooler there than here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 88 in LGA before 9 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Slight Risk issued by SPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 13, 2017 Author Share Posted July 13, 2017 The mesos maintain the MCV currently over NE Ohio as it tracks right across the area this afternoon. You can see the rotation in the current visible satellite animation. That will be the focus for severe storms later. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/HRRRNE_CUR/wloop.html http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/HRRRNE_CUR/rloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Let's go for 95+! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 23 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: Let's go for 95+! Meh, this time of year we should be shooting for 100. But all these darned clouds are in the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 12z NAM Wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 90 in LGA and EWR before 10 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Currently 83/72 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 clouds got in the way...high minimums are making me high...today is as close to what it is in Florida every day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 13, 2017 Author Share Posted July 13, 2017 10 minutes ago, uncle W said: clouds got in the way...high minimums are making me high...today is as close to what it is in Florida every day... All these clouds and convection are keeping a lid on official heatwave production around here. The best we have been able to manage since June 13th has been 2 days in a row of 90 or greater from EWR to LGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 in the 1960's it was a drier heat...temps were near 100 but dews were lower than today...minimums were at least five degrees lower in the morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: All these clouds and convection are keeping a lid on official heatwave production around here. The best we have been able to manage since June 13th has been 2 days in a row of 90 or greater from EWR to LGA. the debris clouds look to be breaking up a little so that should at least allow us to build enough cape for widespread strong activity later with the MCV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 currently a 5f difference between knyc and lga/ewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 16 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the debris clouds look to be breaking up a little so that should at least allow us to build enough cape for widespread strong activity later with the MCV Yeah its been sunny here since about 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, forkyfork said: currently a 5f difference between knyc and lga/ewr lol JFK and ISP are both in the low 90s on a due South wind right now and Central Park is stuck at 87 I refuse to call Central Park "KNYC" it's lost its right to represent the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 32 minutes ago, uncle W said: in the 1960's it was a drier heat...temps were near 100 but dews were lower than today...minimums were at least five degrees lower in the morning... That was an amazing period for heat. I also look back at 2010 and 2011, we had a few scorchers those years too. 108 at Newark, 104 at Central Park and 103 at JFK with heat indices close to 120. For a combo of heat and humidity both being maxed out, look at July 15, 1995. Around here we got stuck with a South wind so only made it to the mid 90s, but LGA and west maxed out. To get a historic heatwave for us, you need a West to NW wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 RGEM for tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Mesoscale Discussion 1303 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Areas affected...Southern New England southward to the DelMarva Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 131509Z - 131715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Convective trends are being monitored for a possible severe thunderstorm watch issuance by around 17Z/1pm eastern standard time. DISCUSSION...A WW issuance may be needed across the discussion area over the next couple of hours. Recent objective analyses and model point forecast soundings indicate that a moderately unstable airmass has developed across the region this morning, with near 90s F surface temperatures and low to mid-70s dewpoints fostering 2000-4000 J/kg MUCAPE despite modest mid-level lapse rates. Meanwhile, a remnant MCV/MCS over western New York and Pennsylvania continues its steady eastward progress toward the region. These features, along with a stationary front from near Albany, NY east-southeastward to Providence, RI should provide a focus for thunderstorm development over the region - perhaps as early as 1600-1630Z. Initial development may occur across southeastern New York into Connecticut, where recent satellite imagery indicates the presence of a deepening cumulus field. High-resolution guidance suggests that initial cellular development will migrate east-southeastward toward Long Island and southern New England over time, with an attendant threat for marginally severe hail stones and damaging wind gusts along with the potential for upscale growth into linear segments. Farther southwest toward the DelMarVa Peninsula, convective development may hold off until after 2000Z-2100Z and coverage should be a bit more sparse compared to farther north. Nevertheless, strong destabilization and sufficient deep shear will exist for hail and damaging wind gusts with any development that occurs in this region through the afternoon and early evening. A WW may be needed for northern portions of the discussion area before 17Z. Depending on convective trends, this watch (or an additional watch) may also be needed farther southwest toward the DelMarVa Peninsula later in the afternoon. ..Cook/Darrow.. 07/13/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 42877430 42937343 42767245 42317185 41907158 41587158 41187188 40887251 40707346 40297388 39697414 39287451 38907506 38797558 39027624 39407667 39847692 40777642 41777581 42507516 42747474 42877430 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Looks to mean that activity in Central PA will diminish and dissipate paving the way for strong to severe tstorms this evening and night.... any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 92 at 10:30am in belle mead but clouds ruined it for getting any higher just yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 cloud cover taking over too bad we could not get another 2-3 hrs of sun for big high temps.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 50's in ME and Mass wth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 95/75 and overcast. Feels like Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 25 minutes ago, Dan76 said: 50's in ME and Mass wth... quite the temp gradient b/c NYC and BOS. Tomorrow that line will sink to Philly.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 What time do you guys think the rain will reach the NYC area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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