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July 2017 Observations & Discussions Thread


bluewave

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You know it's going to be hot today when most stations are in the low 80's at 7 am. The only limit on the max temp  today is how soon this afternoon the clouds and convection arrive. The storms are currently in OH and Western PA.

Central Park   MOSUNNY   80  71  74 CALM      30.02S
LaGuardia APRT MOSUNNY   84  71  65 SW6       29.99S
Kennedy INTL   CLOUDY    79  75  87 SW10      30.01R
Newark Liberty PTSUNNY   80  72  76 SW8       30.00R
Teterboro APRT PTSUNNY   79  72  79 S5        29.98S
Bronx Bot Gard   N/A     81  70  69 SW3       30.00F
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4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Mesoscales are wet the next 48hrs.

8 out of 12 days since July 1st with at least some rain or convection. With 16 out of 30 days in June the same. Most active convective first half of summer in a while.

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10 minutes ago, uncle W said:

clouds got in the way...high minimums are making me high...today is as close to what it is in Florida every day...

All these clouds and convection are keeping a lid on official heatwave production around here. The best we have been able to manage since June 13th has been 2 days in a row of 90 or greater from EWR to LGA.

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10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

All these clouds and convection are keeping a lid on official heatwave production around here. The best we have been able to manage since June 13th has been 2 days in a row of 90 or greater from EWR to LGA.

the debris clouds look to be breaking up a little so that should at least allow us to build enough cape for widespread strong activity later with the MCV

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4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

currently a 5f difference between knyc and lga/ewr

lol JFK and ISP are both in the low 90s on a due South wind right now and Central Park is stuck at 87  I refuse to call Central Park "KNYC" it's lost its right to represent the city.

 

 

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32 minutes ago, uncle W said:

in the 1960's it was a drier heat...temps were near 100 but dews were lower than today...minimums were at least five degrees lower in the morning...

That was an amazing period for heat.  I also look back at 2010 and 2011, we had a few scorchers those years too.  108 at Newark, 104 at Central Park and 103 at JFK with heat indices close to 120.

For a combo of heat and humidity both being maxed out, look at July 15, 1995.  Around here we got stuck with a South wind so only made it to the mid 90s, but LGA and west maxed out.

To get a historic heatwave for us, you need a West to NW wind.

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MD 1303 graphic

 Mesoscale Discussion 1303
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1009 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017

   Areas affected...Southern New England southward to the DelMarva
   Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 131509Z - 131715Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Convective trends are being monitored for a possible
   severe thunderstorm watch issuance by around 17Z/1pm eastern
   standard time.

   DISCUSSION...A WW issuance may be needed across the discussion area
   over the next couple of hours.  Recent objective analyses and model
   point forecast soundings indicate that a moderately unstable airmass
   has developed across the region this morning, with near 90s F
   surface temperatures and low to mid-70s dewpoints fostering
   2000-4000 J/kg MUCAPE despite modest mid-level lapse rates. 
   Meanwhile, a remnant MCV/MCS over western New York and Pennsylvania
   continues its steady eastward progress toward the region.  These
   features, along with a stationary front from near Albany, NY
   east-southeastward to Providence, RI should provide a focus for
   thunderstorm development over the region - perhaps as early as
   1600-1630Z.  Initial development may occur across southeastern New
   York into Connecticut, where recent satellite imagery indicates the
   presence of a deepening cumulus field.  High-resolution guidance
   suggests that initial cellular development will migrate
   east-southeastward toward Long Island and southern New England over
   time, with an attendant threat for marginally severe hail stones and
   damaging wind gusts along with the potential for upscale growth into
   linear segments.

   Farther southwest toward the DelMarVa Peninsula, convective
   development may hold off until after 2000Z-2100Z and coverage should
   be a bit more sparse compared to farther north.  Nevertheless,
   strong destabilization and sufficient deep shear will exist for hail
   and damaging wind gusts with any development that occurs in this
   region through the afternoon and early evening.

   A WW may be needed for northern portions of the discussion area
   before 17Z.  Depending on convective trends, this watch (or an
   additional watch) may also be needed farther southwest toward the
   DelMarVa Peninsula later in the afternoon.

   ..Cook/Darrow.. 07/13/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   42877430 42937343 42767245 42317185 41907158 41587158
               41187188 40887251 40707346 40297388 39697414 39287451
               38907506 38797558 39027624 39407667 39847692 40777642
               41777581 42507516 42747474 42877430 
 

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