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July 2017 Observations & Discussions Thread


bluewave

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Models have scattered activity.  The real show was last night with the warm front coming through-some torrential downpours mainly north of NYC

Nothing on the island last night. Had to water my veggies this morning. Nice cool breeze here in wantagh currently. Headed in to the steam bath city

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4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Models have scattered activity.  The real show was last night with the warm front coming through-some torrential downpours mainly north of NYC

My initial flight into EWR was delayed, but I was able to get onto a flight into HPN instead free of charge. Boarding now.

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23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Warmest minimum of the summer so far for portions of the area. JFK didn't drop below 75 degrees for the first time this year.

 

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Low of 72 here. 74 at islip. Typical July weather. Don't mind it for a month out of the year. 

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14 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Low of 72 here. 74 at islip. Typical July weather. Don't mind it for a month out of the year. 

New record low max at ISP beating the old record by 4 degrees. JFK passed the old record by 2.

ISP

6/12  70 in 1973  68 in 2015  67 in 1996+

JFK

6/12  73 in 1970  71 in 2015  70 in 1984
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It's not as hot as it could be but given the pattern so far through June and the first third of July, we should've had cooler temps than we're getting at least in theory.

If this were a decade or two ago we'd have been below average right now under the same pattern not slightly above normal. 

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25 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's not as hot as it could be but given the pattern so far through June and the first third of July, we should've had cooler temps than we're getting at least in theory.

If this were a decade or two ago we'd have been below average right now under the same pattern not slightly above normal. 

That proves in my opinion that the 1981-2010 averages are meaningless, 1.5 to 2 degrees above those temps are what is really normal for the current climate.

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12 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

That proves in my opinion that the 1981-2010 averages are meaningless, 1.5 to 2 degrees above those temps are what is really normal for the current climate.

And that's on top of the warmest 30 year climate block on record.  

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's not as hot as it could be but given the pattern so far through June and the first third of July, we should've had cooler temps than we're getting at least in theory.

If this were a decade or two ago we'd have been below average right now under the same pattern not slightly above normal. 

The re-analysis shows the trough mostly to our west, leading to a humid southerly flow with the main cold anomalies over the Lakes, and up towards the concentrated PV over Greenland. That's why we are seeing average temps with above average precip/convection.

Greenland is having one of its coldest summers on record. The low of -33C at Summit, Greenland was the lowest July temperature ever recorded in the Northern Hemisphere. 

Climate change may explain a quarter degree of the additional warmth compared to heights. But the H5 maps with a trough largely to our west and a huge concentrated PV over Greenland, seem more logical.

Screenshot_20170712-121251-432x768.png

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4 hours ago, nzucker said:

They have 6 90-degree days, 3 in May, 3 in June, none in July.

Should get the Park's first of July tomorrow. Then it may be a while.

Doesn't look like we get a huge heat summer...more moderate.

May be about 4-5 days before 90s return after Thu, (next tue - thu) potential 90s.  Maybe not the park but most other stations look poised for some more 90s next week.  

# of 90s running closer to 2013/2011 than 10,12,15,16 (so far)

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