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July 2017 Observations & Discussions Thread


bluewave

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27 minutes ago, TriPol said:

 

Where do you see this? I see low 80s.

Think he meant yesterday and past sunday.  Next week looks mid 80s Mon/Tue.  Do see hint of heights rising and subsequent heat potential on/around Jul 12 again.  Well see if its 2- 3 days before next rough moves in

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1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Think he meant yesterday and past sunday.  Next week looks mid 80s Mon/Tue.  Do see hint of heights rising and subsequent heat potential on/around Jul 12 again.  Well see if its 2- 3 days before next rough moves in

Every time models show heights building in the LR, they replace it with lower heights the closer we get. It'll probably be a brief warm shot before the trough reloads again.

I see nothing that would indicate any notable heat (95+) for the next two weeks.

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Be interesting to see if this will turn out to be one of those rare summers when the highest temperature at LGA occurred in June. It was the last 2 times that LGA hit 100 in June.

LGA summers with max temp in June and 100's bolded:

2017...JUN...101....Jul....?.....Aug....?

2008...100...97...88

2003...97....93...93

2000...95...93...92

1998...94...94...93

1984...96...91...91

1967...95...90...87

1961...97...94...90

1959...98...91...94

1956...99...94...92

1952...101...97...90

 

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GFS 12z has no 90's up until the 20th at least. All the heat that was supposed to swing east from the plains is getting squished down from the trough that wants to dominate this whole summer. This summer looks to be wet but cooler than previous summers. By the 20th almost half of the summer will be over and usually summers peak around that timeframe so I doubt we'll get anything noteworthy unles the war kicks up the heights!

 

enjoy it this summer is better than 100. Who wants that kind of heat just ask people from Montenegro!

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Be interesting to see if this will turn out to be one of those rare summers when the highest temperature at LGA occurred in June. It was the last 2 times that LGA hit 100 in June.

LGA summers with max temp in June and 100's bolded:

2017...JUN...101....Jul....?.....Aug....?

2008...100...97...88

2003...97....93...93

2000...95...93...92

1998...94...94...93

1984...96...91...91

1967...95...90...87

1961...97...94...90

1959...98...91...94

1956...99...94...92

1952...101...97...90

 

1965 had it's max in June but it was tied in July...I can't believe how much warmer LGA was on average that summer compared to Central Park...There is almost a three degree difference on the cool side for Central Park in Aug. 1965...

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22 minutes ago, uncle W said:

1965 had it's max in June but it was tied in July...I can't believe how much warmer LGA was on average that summer compared to Central Park...There is almost a three degree difference on the cool side for Central Park in Aug. 1965...

This year seems to be going against the recent 2010's pattern. The past winter was different in that the coldest departure of DJF happened in December with the -14 at LGA. Most recent winters had the warmth up front with more backloaded cold. So I guess it wouldn't be a surprise if the warmest temperature of the summer happens in June this year instead of later like we have been normally seeing.

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This year seems to be going against the recent 2010's pattern. The past winter was different in that the coldest departure of DJF happened in December with the -14 at LGA. Most recent winters had the warmth up front with more backloaded cold. So I guess it wouldn't be a surprise if the warmest temperature of the summer happens in June this year instead of later like we have been normally seeing.

it seems most of the years with the hottest temperature coming before July have a cold or snowy winter the next year...there are the exceptions of course...

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38 minutes ago, uncle W said:

it seems most of the years with the hottest temperature coming before July have a cold or snowy winter the next year...there are the exceptions of course...

That could work out since we have seen two winters in a row averaging near 40 degrees. So maybe something colder at least relative to the last two will follow.

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8 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Every time models show heights building in the LR, they replace it with lower heights the closer we get. It'll probably be a brief warm shot before the trough reloads again.

I see nothing that would indicate any notable heat (95+) for the next two weeks.

Agreed. Every time I hear "models showing hints of heights building east in the LR" it never materializes or just end up with one or two days of 90 degrees. Not even 95. Sounds like wishcasting if you ask me. Looks as though any extended heat will be muted this year, at least for the first half of summer. 

Now that I've posted this watch the models show a record heatwave the rest of the summer. Time will tell

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On 7/4/2017 at 1:54 PM, uncle W said:

it seems most of the years with the hottest temperature coming before July have a cold or snowy winter the next year...there are the exceptions of course...

I know that only a handful of Augusts in NYC have averaged warmer than July in any given year.  It may be 4 or 5.  And all of them had insanely mild Decembers.  It's certainly a small sample size but I think I every time it's happened the early winter has been warm. 

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